The work within the Mistra Digital Forest (MDF) research programme, work package 2 task 2.5, aims overall to develop methods for describing and visualizing alternative, future scenarios for the production and use of forest raw materials, for current and future forestry, from a sustainability perspective.
This report describes methods for assessing the climate benefits of wood-based products in relation to the products they replace. The calculation thus answers the question:What climate impacts are avoided if there is a marginal increase in the production of a wood-based product, today and in the future?The report relates to the proposed standard ISO/DIS 13391-3:2024. The major difference from the ISO standard is that a general technology development is included which, in simple terms, means that all processes will have a lower climate impact in the future. We call this aspect decarbonization. The proposed methodology makes it possible to calculate the potential climate impact (expressed in GWP in kg CO2e) of the substitution effect. The central approach in the report is the implementation of BioMapp as a system analysis tool. In BioMapp, the substitution benefit can be provided as an additional calculation result, reflecting avoided product emissions that can be added to the existing calculation outcome.
In this case, it is possible to determine all three of the following aspects that arise during the production of the product and its substitute:1) The additional carbon sink of the forestry2) The product's temporary biogenic carbon sink in society3) The substitution benefit of the product type during its life cycleIn addition to the standard selection of system-analytical methods, the report also provides suggestions on how to assess the additional component of substitution benefits, which we refer to here as a "custom indicator." This indicator does not replace the standard systematic results but should be seen as supplementary information, particularly if additionality is specifically requested. An example of a system based on additionality is the EU’s Carbon Removal Certification Framework.The substitution benefit is in turn divided into A production, B use and C end-of-life benefits. The total analyzed climate impact GWP-GHG is divided into; fossil emissions/GWP-FOS, biogenic emissions/GWP-BIO, emissions from land use GWP-LULUC, and the contribution from temporary or temporary carbon sinks/GWP-STORE.In order to describe in a simplified way future developments and the introduction of various climate improvement measures, a simplified scenario methodology is used, which we call the three-point scenario.
This scenario consists of a present value, a future value and what it looks like around the year 2050, which coincides with the time at which most of our environmental policy objectives extend. After this point, the value is assumed to remain constant. Conceptually, these scenarios can be based on today's technology, decision-making and market-driven climate action or environmental policy targets.. The proposal suggests applying a standardized climate improvement per product and life cycle stage for all manufacturing processes, grounded in a scenario driven by decision-making and market-oriented climate actions.
The methodology for product substitution and its climate benefits described in the report will be used in BioMapp developed within the framework of the Mistra Digital Forest research project. phase 1. BioMapp is a digital visualization tool that calculates various sustainability indicators for Swedish forestry and the products produced by the forest industries in Sweden. By implementing substitution effects from wood-based products, the climate benefit can be quantified. In addition, this kind of GWP indicator allows the theoretical extreme scenario alternative “no forest harvesting” to be analyzed. The change in forest carbon balance can then be related to the fact that the products previously produced from the forest now have to be made from other, often fossil-based materials. In BioMapp, this function will be able to be activated or deactivated depending on the question to be analyzed.The report will be followed up with documentation of the input data needed for example calculations.
The methodology to calculate 1) the product's temporary biogenic carbon sink and 2) the product type's life cycle substitution benefit is based on the CLEAR model, which facilitates implementation. These generic data can be replaced with specific values if desired.