IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

Substitution of conventional jet fuel with low-to zero-carbon-emitting alternative aviation fuels is vital for meeting the climate targets for aviation. It is important to understand the technical, environmental, and eco-nomic performance of alternative aviation fuels and prospective engine and propulsion technologies for future aircraft. This study reviews alternative fuels and propulsion systems, focusing on costs and technical maturity, and presents conceptual aircraft designs for different aviation fuels.

The cost review includes minimum jet fuel selling price (MJFSP) for alternative aviation fuels. Direct operating cost (DOC) is estimated based on the con-ceptual aircraft designs and the reviewed MJFSP. The DOCs for bio-jet fuel (5.0–9.2 US cent per passenger- kilometer (¢/PAX/km)), fossil and renewable liquefied hydrogen (5.9–10.1 and 8.1–23.9 ¢/PAX/km, respec-tively), and electro-methane and electro-jet fuel (5.6–16.7 and 9.2–23.7 ¢/PAX/km, respectively) are higher than for conventional jet fuel (3.9–4.8 ¢/PAX/km) and liquefied natural gas (4.2–5.2 ¢/PAX/km). Overall, DOC of renewable aviation fuels is 15–500 % higher than conventional jet fuels. Among the bio-jet fuels, hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (23–310 $/GJ) and alcohol-to-jet (4–215 $/GJ) pathways offer the lowest MJFSPs. The implementation of alternative fuels in existing aircraft engines and the design and development of appropriate propulsion systems and aircraft are challenging. The overall cost is a key factor for future implementation. Bio-jet fuel is most promising in the near term while hydrogen and electrofuels in the long term. The level of carbon tax on fossil jet fuels needed for the latter options to be competitive depend on the hydrogen production cost. 

This document reports the findings of the project “Large scale bio electro jet fuel production integration at CHP-plant in Östersund, Sweden”. BEJF is an electrofuel produced in a synthesis process where biogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main carbon source and hydrogen from electrolysis of water using renewable electricity is the main energy source. The project is a feasibility study for a factory for such fuel located at Jämtkraft's facility for CHP in Östersund. Thus, the aim of the project is to assess the feasibility for producing renewable aviation fuel at a specific location considering and evaluating e.g., different processes, operations and integrations, costs, environmental impact, business models and actors.

IVL The Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Jämtkraft (JK), Chalmers University (CU), Lund University (LU), Nordic Initiative for Sustainable Aviation (NISA), and Fly Green Fund (FGF) have been the primary implementers in this project. Other project stakeholders (AFAB, and The Power Region), have provided relevant data to the various working groups. The project has included experimental work, modelling and calculations, as well as literature-based studies but not the construction of any facilities.

EU recently decided to include shipping, meaning all intra-European shipping and50% of extra-European voyages, in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)beginning in 2024. This article provides an early assessment of the impacts of theEU ETS on the shipping sector’s potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissionsfor different types of ships. It further examines selected mitigation measures andthe impact on modals split and costs. The study employs a mixed-methodsapproach  combining  quantitative  estimates  (based  on  data  from  the  EUmonitoring,  reporting  and  verification  system)  with  qualitative  data  andinformation from interviews with key actors and from previous literature.

This approach aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of theEU ETS. The inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS is expected to introduce significantincentives to reduce emissions. We estimate that switching to bio-methanol at anemissions allowance price of€90–100/tCO2will be cost-effective for a minor shareof shipping segments (representing about 0.5-5% of all ships), whereas at a priceabove€150/tCO2it could be cost-effective for a considerable share (potentially75%) of ships. In the short term, the costs incurred by the EU ETS will be passed onto transport customers as a surcharge. The increased cost may, unless properlyaddressed, drive carbon leakage. Meanwhile, a modal shift away from shippingmay occur in the roll-on, roll-off(RoRo) and roll-on passenger (RoPax) segmentsdue to direct competition with road and rail transport and the relative ease ofshifting to other modes of transport.

Sjöfarten står inför en stor omställning mot fossilfri drift av fartygen. Denna rapport beskriver styrmedel, tekniska frågor, hinder och scenarier för framtiden relaterat till denna utveckling. Inom IMO (International Maritime Organization) finns mål uppsatta för en minskning av utsläppen av växthusgaser från sjöfarten, styrmedel för kortsiktiga åtgärder finns på plats, främst avseende energieffektivisering, och mer långsiktiga ”market based measures” diskuteras. Inom EU finns ett antal förslag som när de implementeras kommer att få stor inverkan på sjöfarten och dess utsläpp av växthusgaser. I Sverige finns bland annat miljödifferentierade farledsavgifter och ecobonus, men ytterligare kraftfulla styrmedel krävs för att nå de mål om minskning av växthusgasutsläpp som satts upp.

Det finns ett stort antal möjliga framtida hållbara marina bränslen som diskuteras t.ex. ammoniak, metan, metanol, vätgas och syntetisk diesel. I tillägg fortgår utvecklingen med ökad användning av eldrift.

Ett antal scenarier presenteras i rapporten för utvecklingen av bränslemix och utsläpp av växthusgaser för svensk sjöfart, med syftet att analysera olika tänkbara styrmedel. Resultaten visar att el- och gasdrift kan bidra till att minska ökningen av emissioner av växthusgaser, men att ytterligare åtgärder behövs för att åstadkomma en sänkning av emissionerna. I ett scenario analyseras effekterna av de styrmedel som föreslås inom EU:s ”Fit for 55”.

Det finns ett antal hinder som kan försena en utveckling mot ökad hållbarhet inom svensk sjöfart, både för eldrift och förnybara bränslen. Vidare diskuteras styrmedel som kan införas på nationell nivå. Här analyseras styrmedel för ökad användning av el, om en reduktionsplikt kan införas även för marina bränslen, en potentiell CO2-fond, investeringsstöd till ny teknik och bränsleinfrastruktur, klimatkrav på statens flotta, breddad ekobonus samt en vidareutveckling av miljödifferentierade farledsavgifter.

This report is only available in English.

Människans användning av jordens resurser behöver nå långsiktigt hållbara nivåer. Resurseffektivitet är ett av sju så kallade flaggskeppsinitiativ som EU-kommissionen lanserat inom ramen för Europa 2020-strategin (EU-kommissionen 2010). Initiativet för ett resurseffektivt Europa syftar till att stödja en resurseffektiv och koldioxidsnål ekonomi och hållbar utveckling. Initiativet riktas mot ett flertal områden – klimat, energi, transporter, industri, råvaror, jordbruk, fiske, biodiversitet och regional utveckling (EU-kommissionen 2011). Ökad resurseffektivitet i energisystemet är en del av detta och innefattar exempelvis energieffektivisering, minskad energikonsumtion, ökad användning av förnybar energi och minskad användning av fossila bränslen. De sektorer som huvudsakligen berörs är el- och värmeproduktion, industri, transporter, bostäder och avfall.

IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet har, med finansiellt stöd från Energimyndigheten, i denna broschyr gjort en sammanställning av kopplingen mellan resurseffektivitet och energisystem. Dennasammanställning gör inte anspråk på att vara heltäckande utan syftar till påbörja en diskussion om resurseffektivitet kopplat till energisystemet.

This report is only available in Swedish.

Eutrophication in the North and Baltic Seas is a major problem to the marine environment and the communities depending on it. To counteract this, the Swedish Marine and Water Authority suggested financial support for measures that increase the uptake of nutrients from the water by e.g. marine organisms and support for the utilization of these organisms as value added products. In Sweden the use of biogas to replace fossil transportation fuels is widely adopted. The domestic biogas production corresponded to approx. 1.95 TWh (approx. 7010 TJ) in 2015 of which approx. 63 % were upgraded for use as e.g. transportation fuel. Other uses are heat and electricity generation as well as industrial applications. To expand production, the biogas industry is searching for new substrates.

In this paper the utilisation of the marine evertebrate organism Ciona intestinalis (tunicata), cultivated in the North Sea and used as feedstock for biogas and biofertilizer production is suggested and assessed. The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions performance of the concept and it’s consequences on marine eutrophication are investigated applying life cycle assessment. Results show that at full scale biogas production from C. intestinalis reduces GHG emissions by more than 65 % compared to fossil transportation fuels. In addition, the results show that accounting for the system consequences of other products and services such as biofertilizer replacing mineral fertilizers and decreased marine eutrophication largely increase the environmental benefits provided by the concept. Approx. 3.7 g-Neq/MJbiogas of nitrogen are removed from the marine environment during the cultivation of C. intestinalis.

There is an increasing trend in promoting the use of biofuels for transportation as a low-fossil carbon energy source, but little knowledge on their multidimensional environmental impacts. Whole-system approaches, such as life cycle assessment (LCA), have been extensively employed to analyze the environmental performance of different biofuels. However, it remains unclear to which extent biofuels impact ecosystems and the services they provide, in particular related to different management practices.

To overcome this challenge, this paper draws recommendations to better holistically address ecosystem services (ES) in LCA, with a focus on biofuels. We first pinpoint some of the challenges in accounting for the concept of ES in decision-making and review some of the existing ES classification frameworks and the usefulness of the cascade model. Second, we discuss the implications of identified context-specific aspects on the modeling of biofuel production impacts on ES in LCA.

Finally, we propose a conceptual framework to link ES classification systems, the cascade model and the LCA approach. Although some challenges still remain unsolved, due to the existing life cycle impact assessment structure, existing ES frameworks and the cascade model are helpful tools to better include ES into LCA of different biofuels.

Slutrapport för projekt 36090-1 inom Bränsleprogrammet Hållbarhet Det övergripande målet med projektet är att utifrån ett resursperspektiv undersöka hur bioenergisystemet påverkas av hållbarhetskrav. Syftet var att kartlägga bioenergipotentialens geografiska fördelning och undersöka hur olika regioners möjligheter att producera biomassa och fasta/flytande biobränslen för EU påverkas av hållbarhetskriterier för biobränslen, samt översiktligt analysera konsekvenser för den svenska biobränslemarknadens utveckling. Projektet är ett samarbetsprojekt mellan Julia Hansson på IVL och Göran Berndes på Chalmers och har resulterat i ett flertal vetenskapliga publikationer. Resultat och slutsatser presenteras kortfattat i efterföljande extended summary.

Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA) methodology is applied for this assessment. LSCA often constitutes of the integration of results from social LCA (S-LCA), environmental life cycle assessment (E-LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC). In this study, an S-LCA from an earlier project is extended with a positive social aspect, as well as refined and detailed. E-LCA and LCC results are built from LCA database and literature. Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodology is applied to integrate the results from the three different assessments into an LCSA.

The weighting of key sustainability dimensions in the MCDA is performed in different ways, where the sustainability dimensions are prioritized differently priority based on the assumed values of different stakeholder profiles (Egalitarian, Hierarchist, and Individualist). The developed methodology is tested on selected biomass based and fossil transportation fuels - ethanol produced from Brazilian sugarcane and US corn/maize, and petrol produced from Russian and Nigerian crude oils, where it delineates differences in sustainability performance between products assessed. The outcome in terms of relative ranking of the transportation fuel chains based on sustainability performance differs when applying different decision-maker profiles.

This result highlights and supports views that there is no one single answer regarding which of the alternatives that is most sustainable. Rather, it depends strongly upon the worldview and values held by the decision maker. A key conclusion is that sustainability assessments should pay more attention to potential differences in underlying values held by key stakeholders in relevant societal contexts. The LCSA methodology still faces challenges regarding results integration but MCDA in combination with stakeholder profiles appears to be a useful approach to build on further.

Electrofuels (also called power-to-gas/liquids/fuels or synthetic fuels) are potential future carbon-based fuels produced from carbon dioxide (CO2) and water using electricity as the primary source of energy. This article assesses the production cost of electrofuels through: (i) a literature review, focusing on which steps that have the largest impact as well as the greatest uncertainty; (ii) a more comprehensive review, including the costs and efficiencies for the separate production steps (iii) calculations to compare the production costs of the different fuel options in a harmonized way, including a sensitivity analysis of the parameters with the greatest impact on the total electrofuel production cost.

The assessment covers: methane, methanol, dimethyl ether, diesel, and gasoline. The literature review showed large differences among the studies and a broad range of production cost estimates (10–3500 €2015/MWhfuel), which is first and foremost as a result of how authors have handled technology matureness, installation costs, and external factors. Our calculations result in productions costs in the range of 200–280 €2015/MWhfuel in 2015 and 160–210 €2015/MWhfuel in 2030 using base cost assumptions from the literature review. Compared to biofuels, these estimates are in the upper range or above.

Our results also show that the choice of energy carrier is not as critical for the electrofuels production cost as technological choices and external factors. Instead the two most important factors affecting the production cost of all electrofuels are the capital cost of the electrolyser and the electricity price, i.e., the hydrogen production cost. The capacity factor of the unit and the life span of the electrolyser are also important parameters affecting that production cost. In order to determine if electrofuels are a cost-effective future transport fuel relative to alternatives other than biofuels, the costs for distribution, propulsion, and storage systems need to be considered.

The assessment is based on a review of scenarios and predictions of how the Swedish energy system may develop, taking into account techno-economical conditions. It includes potential changes in district heating, electricity production in combined heat and power plants, industrial process energy, and production of biofuel for road transportation. In addition, the potential demand for forest-based feedstock in the chemical and petrochemical sector, replacing current use of fossil feedstock, is analysed. The assessment suggests that Sweden may see an additional demand for forest fuels at about 30 TW h in 2030 and 35–40 TW h in 2050.

This can be compared with the current use of biomass for energy in Sweden at 130 TW h per year, and the estimated potential increase of sustainable harvest of logging residues (slash and stumps) at some additional 20 TW h per year, based on current conditions. If also potential demand for forest-based feedstock in the chemical and petrochemical industry is included, another 10–15 and 25–30 TW h of biomass per year may be needed in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The future demand is sensitive to the pace and magnitude of energy efficiency improvements and electrification in the various sectors. If far-reaching energy efficiency improvements and electrification are realised, the total additional demand for biomass as energy and industry feedstock may be about 20 and 30 TW h per year in 2030 and 2050, respectively, thus roughly corresponding to the sustainable harvests of logging residues. If, however, efficiency improvements and electrification are only marginal, then the additional demand for biomass as industry and energy feedstock may reach 70 TW h and 100 TW h per year in 2030 and 2050, respectively.

In these cases, the use of logging residues will not suffice and additional biomass would be needed. A combination of regulations and incentives is recommended to accelerate the fuel and feedstock switch, especially in the transportation and industrial sectors, and incentives promoting a substantial improvement in energy efficiency and electrification in all sectors.

To drastically reduce shipping related GHG emissions, the implementation of energy efficiency measures needs to be supplemented by the introduction of low and potential zero carbon marine fuels. This viewpoint discusses the potential for different marine fuel options and the key factors that influence the prerequisites for the different options.

Decarbonized shipping represents a considerable challenge since the GHG emissions are estimated to increase by 2050 in most scenarios. To drastically reduce shipping related GHG emissions, the implementation of energy efficiency measures needs to be supplemented by the introduction of low and potential zero carbon marine fuels. Which, then, are the key factors that influence the prerequisites for different marine fuel options?

Swedish climate policy targets net zero greenhouse gases (GHG) by mid-century, with road transport independent of fossil fuels by 2030, requiring far-reaching changes in the way energy is used. Forest management is expected to support carbon sequestration and provide biomass for various uses, including energy.

In this paper, we combine two energy scenarios with four forest scenarios and quantify GHG balances associated with energy-use for heat, electricity, and road transport, and with forest management and production, use, and end-of-life management of various forest products, including products for export. The aggregated GHG balances are evaluated in relation to the 2-degree target and an allocated Swedish CO2 budget. The production of biofuels in the agriculture sector is considered but not analyzed in detail.

The results suggest that Swedish forestry can make an important contribution by supplying forest fuels and other products while maintaining or enhancing carbon storage in vegetation, soils, and forest products. The GHG neutrality goal is not met in any of the scenarios without factoring in carbon sequestration. Measures to enhance forest productivity can increase output of forest products (including biofuels for export) and also enhance carbon sequestration. The Swedish forest sector can let Sweden reach net negative emissions, and avoid “using up” its allocated CO2 budget, thereby increasing the associated emissions space for the rest of the world.

To reach the International Maritime Organization, IMO, vision of a 50% greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction by 2050, there is a need for action. Good decision support is needed for decisions on fuel and energy conversion systems due to the complexity. This paper aims to get an overview of the criteria types included in present assessments of future marine fuels, to evaluate these and to highlight the most important criteria. This is done using a literature review of selected scientific articles and reports and the authors’ own insights from assessing marine fuels. There are different views regarding the goal of fuel change, what fuel names to use as well as regarding the criteria to assess, which therefore vary in the literature. Quite a few articles and reports include a comparison of several alternative fuels. To promote a transition to fuels with significant GHG reduction potential, it is crucial to apply a life cycle perspective and to assess fuel options in a multicriteria perspective. The recommended minimum set of criteria to consider when evaluating future marine fuels differ somewhat between fuels that can be used in existing ships and fuels that can be used in new types of propulsion systems.

Sustainable feedstock supply is a critical issue for the bioenergy sector. The sustainability criteria for biofuels in the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) prohibit the use of raw material from land with high biodiversity, i.e., areas designated for nature protection purposes, primary forest and highly biodiverse grassland. This paper addresses how biodiversity considerations influence the prospects for biomass production for bioenergy on grasslands. No globally established approach exists to assess and quantify grassland availability for bioenergy while considering biodiversity. We investigate how biodiverse grasslands are considered in (i) assessments of bioenergy supply potentials; (ii) the RED, the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD); and (iii) land-use governance and nature protection in Brazil. Estimates of biomass supply potentials commonly treat biodiverse grasslands as unavailable for bioenergy, when considering broader nature protection requirements. Few studies allow for a direct quantification of how biodiversity considerations relating to grasslands influence the global biomass supply potential. The definitions of natural and non-natural grassland in the RED are similar to those in the CAP. The RED complements and strengthens the protective ambitions in the CAP and CBD, but a lack of clear definitions and guidance in relation to the RED creates uncertainty about the prospects for biofuels from grasslands on the EU market. For EU-28, an estimated 39-48% (about 9-11 Mha) and 15-54% (about 10-38 Mha) of natural and non-natural grassland, respectively, may be considered highly biodiverse. In Brazil, economic-ecological zoning can be important for grassland conservation since almost half of the native grassland on private land is unprotected and subject to farmers’ preferences, which may favor protecting forest over grassland. Further clarification of grassland definitions and delineation in regulations will significantly influence the prospects for bioenergy from grasslands, and the impacts of bioenergy deployment on biodiversity.

The Nordic countries aim for a carbon-neutral Nordic region. Maritime transport is one of the key remaining sectors to decarbonize and is important from a Nordic perspective due to the relatively large Nordic involvement in this industry. The HOPE project addresses how regional shipping in the Nordic region can do the transition to become fossil-free. The project aims at clarifying the potential role of hydrogen based marine solutions in reducing the Nordic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the centre of the project is a ship concept where a typical RoPax-vessel with operating distances of around 100 nautical miles is designed for including operation with hydrogen as fuel and fuel cells for energy conversion. The overall design of the concept ship is compared with selected other fuel alternatives from a cost perspective. 

Further, both the conditions for designing such a ship and the consequences are studied. The conditions include technical design and costs of fuel systems and handling, powertrains etc. but also an analysis of barriers and drivers for the realisation of hydrogen solutions for shipping, such as economic, legal, and policy issues. For example, in terms of drivers, policy options needed to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen based marine solutions are assessed. Strategies and the potential of producing these fuels in the Nordic region are also reviewed from a shipping perspective. A realistic potential for uptake of these technologies/fuels by Nordic shipping are assessed and the benefits regarding lower emissions of GHGs and air pollutants are estimated. This report summarizes the assessments made in the HOPE project including main findings. 

To reduce the climate impact of shipping the introduction of alternative fuels is required. There is a range of different marine fuel options but ammonia, a potential zero carbon fuel, has recently received a lot of attention. The purpose of this paper is to assess the prospects for ammonia as a future fuel for the shipping sector in relation to other marine fuels. The assessment is based on a synthesis of knowledge in combination with (i) energy systems modelling including the cost-effectiveness of ammonia as marine fuel in relation to other fuels for reaching global climate targets and (ii) a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach ranking marine fuel options while considering estimated fuel performance and the importance of criteria based on maritime stakeholder preferences. In the long-term and to reach global GHG reduction, the energy systems modelling indicate that the use of hydrogen represent a more cost-effective marine fuel option than ammonia. However, in the MCDA covering more aspects we find that ammonia may be almost as interesting for shipping related stakeholders as hydrogen and various biomass-based fuels. Ammonia may to some extent be an interesting future marine fuel option, but many issues remains to be solved before large-scale introduction.

Syftet med denna studie är att uppdatera och utvidga författarnas analys, från 2010, av möjligheterna för förnybara drivmedel i Sverige till 2030. Rapporten innehåller en sammanställning av andra aktörers visioner för utvecklingen av förnybara drivmedel, en sammanställning av styrmedel för förnybara drivmedel, en kartläggning av befintlig och planerad produktionskapacitet för biodrivmedel i Sverige och utblick mot övriga världen, en diskussion kring Sveriges framtida importmöjligheter, en kartläggning av situationen för infrastruktur och fordon, och slutligen scenarier för utvecklingen av förnybara drivmedel i Sverige till 2030 med olika antaganden för utvecklingen av den inhemska produktionskapaciteten av biodrivmedel, mängden import och mängden el till fordon. Studiens analyser baseras på litteraturstudier, kontakter med aktörer inom området och på resultaten från egna scenarier. Scenarierna ger en bild av att det möjliga bidraget från förnybara drivmedel, till den svenska vägtransportsektorn, kan ligga inom intervallet 7–16 TWh år 2020 och 13–30 TWh år 2030 (varav 5–13 TWh år 2020 och 13–26 TWh år 2030 utgör det möjliga inhemska bidraget dvs. utan import).

Electrofuels, fuels produced from electricity, water, and carbon or nitrogen, are of interest assubstitutes for fossil fuels in all energy and chemical sectors. This paper focuses on electrofuels for transportation, where some can be used in existing vehicle/vessel/aircraft fleets and fueling infrastructure.

The aim of this study is to review publications on electrofuels and summarize costs and environmental performance. A special case, denoted as bio-electrofuels, involves hydrogen supplementing existing biomethane production (e.g. anaerobic digestion) to generate additional or different fuels. We use costs, identified in the literature, to calculate harmonized production costs for a range of electrofuels and bio-electrofuels.

Results from the harmonized calculations show that bio-electrofuels generally have lower costs than electrofuels produced using captured carbon. Lowest costs are found for liquefied bio-electro-methane, bio-electro-methanol, and bio-electro-dimethyl ether. The highest cost is for electro-jet fuel. All analyzed fuels have the potential for long-term production costs in the range 90–160 € per MWh. Dominant factors impacting production costs are electrolyzer and electricity costs, the latter connected to capacity factors (CFs) and cost for hydrogen storage. Electrofuel production costs also depend on regional conditions for renewable electricity generation, which are analyzed in sensitivity analyses usingcorresponding CFs in four European regions.

Results show a production cost range forelectro-methanol of 76–118 € per MWh depending on scenario and region assuming an electrolyzer CAPEX of 300–450 € per kWelec and CFs of 45%–65%. Lowest production costs are found in regions with good conditions for renewable electricity, such as Ireland and western Spain. The choice of system boundary has a large impact on the environmental assessments. The literature is not consistent regarding the environmental impact from different CO2 sources. The literature, however, points to the fact that renewable energy sources are required to achieve low global warming impact over the electrofuel life cycle.

This paper seeks ways to address positive social impacts in social life cycle assessment (SLCA) and attempts to answer two questions: How can the SLCA methodology be improved in order to systematically identify all potential positive impacts in the supply chain? How can positive impacts be taken into consideration along with negative impacts in SLCA? In order to exemplify and provide more concrete methodological improvements, the case of vehicle fuels is used to investigate the possibilities to address positive impacts in SLCA.By scrutinising the social impacts addressed in the SLCA UNEP/SETAC

By scrutinising the social impacts addressed in the SLCA UNEP/SETAC Guidelines today and reviewing approaches for positive impacts in other research fields, a developed approach to capture and aggregate positive social impacts in SLCA is proposed. To exemplify the application, the case of vehicle fuels is used to investigate the possibilities of addressing positive impacts in SLCA. This includes a literature review on potential positive social impacts linked to vehicle fuels.

The subcategories in the SLCA Guidelines are proposed to be divided into positive and negative impacts and complemented with some additional positive impacts. Related indicators are proposed. A draft approach for assessing positive impacts is developed where the proposed indicators are categorised in four different levels, from low to very high potential positive impact. The possibility to aggregate positive social impacts is discussed. Besides multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), few useful ideas for aggregating positive impacts in SLCA were found in the literature that mostly focused on surveys and monetarisation. Positive social impacts linked to vehicle fuels (fossil fuels and biofuels) are identified, and the proposed approach is schematically applied to vehicle fuels.

This paper seeks ways to address positive social impacts in social life cycle assessment (SLCA) and attempts to answer two questions: How can the SLCA methodology be improved in order to systematically identify all potential positive impacts in the supply chain? How can positive impacts be taken into consideration along with negative impacts in SLCA? In order for SLCA to be an attractive tool, it needs to provide users with the possibility to include positive impacts, not as variables stipulating lack of negative impacts but rather as fulfilment of positive potentials. By scrutinising the social impacts addressed in the SLCA UNEP/SETAC Guidelines today and reviewing approaches for positive impacts in other research fields, a developed approach to capture and aggregate positive social impacts in SLCA is proposed. To exemplify the application, the case of vehicle fuels is used to investigate the possibilities of addressing positive impacts in SLCA. This includes a literature review on potential positive social impacts linked to vehicle fuels.

The global share of anthropogenic CO2 emissions from ships is only about 2 percent, but there is a risk that this share will increase substantially if no action is taken. What are the possibilities for decarbonisation of the shipping industry, then? Some of the measures discussed are energy efficiency, use of biofuels and use of hydrogen. In this paper a fourth option is scrutinised – use of electrofuels. Electrofuels is an umbrella term for carbon-based fuels, e.g. methane or methanol, which are produced using electricity as the primary source of energy. The carbon in the fuel comes from CO2 which can be captured from various industrial processes such as exhaust gases, the sea or the air.

The production of electrofuels is still in its infancy, and many challenges need to be overcome before electrofuels are brought to market on a large scale. First, this paper gives an overview of the current status of electrofuels regarding technologies, efficiencies and costs. Second, as electrofuels production requires significant amounts of CO2 and electricity, the feasibility to produce enough electrofuels to supply all ships bunkering in Sweden, with regionally produced electricity and regionally emitted CO2, and the amount of CO2 that is required to supply all ships globally is evaluated in two case studies assessing supply potential.

With our bottom-up approach using European databases, we find that Sweden emits approximately 50 million metric tons of CO2 per year from different types of point sources, with 65% (or about 32 million tons) from biogenic sources. The major sources are the pulp and paper industry (46%), heat and power production (23%), and waste treatment and incineration (8%). Most of the CO2 is emitted at low concentrations (<15%) from sources in the southern part of Sweden where power demand generally exceeds in-region supply. The potentially recoverable emissions from all the included point sources amount to 45 million tons. If all the recoverable CO2 were used to produce electrofuels, the yield would correspond to 2–3 times the current Swedish demand for transportation fuels.

The electricity required would correspond to about 3 times the current Swedish electricity supply. The current relatively few emission sources with high concentrations of CO2 (>90%, biofuel operations) would yield electrofuels corresponding to approximately 2% of the current demand for transportation fuels (corresponding to 1.5–2 TWh/year). In a 2030 scenario with large-scale biofuels operations based on lignocellulosic feedstocks, the potential for electrofuels production from high-concentration sources increases to 8–11 TWh/year. Finally, renewable electricity and production costs, rather than CO2 supply, limit the potential for production of electrofuels in Sweden.

Highlights

• Sweden emits 50 million metric tons of CO2 per year from different types of point sources, the vast majority of which is emitted at low concentrations.

• Of this, 65% is from biogenic sources, most of which are located in southern Sweden.

• Currently, the high-concentration sources of CO2 in Sweden can provide a potential 1.5–2 TWh electrofuels/year (2% of current transportation demand).

• The Swedish potential for electrofuels is currently limited by the electricity required and production costs rather than the amount of recoverable CO2.

The introduction of sustainability criteria for solid biomass/biofuels on the EU or global level may influence the EU pellets market, e.g. by limiting the eligible biomass supply potential or specific pellet chains. This assessment focuses on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and the issue of sustainable forest management for pellets potentially used in Sweden (for residential and/or industrial use).

The paper includes (i) a literature review of recent studies addressing the impact of sustainability requirements (for solid biomass and/or liquid biofuels) on the bioenergy market, (ii) a characterization of sustainable forest management conditions in potential pellets export countries and their capacity to enforce respective legislation, and (iii) an assessment of GHG emissions for heat and electricity for the Swedish market from selected potential wood pellet chains (including torrefaction) and related GHG emissions reduction compared to fossil fuels using a life cycle assessment perspective.

Most of the assessed wood pellet value chains will most likely be able to meet stringent sustainability requirements from a GHG perspective. Thus, the impact of near term GHG emission reduction demands on the Swedish pellets market is limited. More specifically, we find that torrefaction may be advantageous for pellets imported over long-distances (i.e., over approximately 18 500 km). We conclude that demand for sustainable forest management related to solid biofuels will not have a significant or long lasting effect on the market for Swedish pellets. The real impacts of sustainability requirements will however depend on levels of ambition as well as the methodologies and systems boundaries applied in future systems.

A techno-economic assessment and environmental and social sustainability assessments of novel Fischer–Tropsch (FT) biodiesel production from the wet and dry gasification of biomass-based residue streams (bark and black liquor from pulp production) for transport applications are presented. A typical French kraft pulp mill serves as the reference case and large-scale biofuel-production-process integration is explored. Relatively low greenhouse gas emission levels can be obtained for the FT biodiesel (total span: 16–83 g CO2eq/MJ in the assessed EU countries).

Actual process configuration and low-carbon electricity are critical for overall performance. The site-specific social assessment indicates an overall positive social effect for local community, value chain actors, and society. Important social aspects include (i) job creation potential, (ii) economic development through job creation and new business opportunities, and (iii) health and safety for workers.

For social risks, the country of implementation is important. Heat and electricity use are the key contributors to social impacts. The estimated production cost for biobased crude oil is about 13 €/GJ, and it is 14 €/GJ (0.47 €/L or 50 €/MWh) for the FT biodiesel. However, there are uncertainties, i.e., due to the low technology readiness level of the gasification technologies, especially wet gasification. However, the studied concept may provide substantial GHG reduction compared to fossil diesel at a relatively low cost.

Renewable fuels for transport are needed to reach future climate targets. However, the potential future role of different biofuels, hydrogen, and electrofuels (produced by electricity, water, and CO2) in different transportation sectors remains uncertain. Increased knowledge about the preconditions for different renewable fuels for road and air transport to contribute to the transformation of the transport sector is needed to ensure the transformation is done in a climate- and cost-effective way. The CO2 abatement cost, i.e., the cost of reducing a certain amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is central from both a societal and business perspective, the latter partly due to the design of the Swedish reduction obligation system.

The abatement cost of a specific fuel value chain depends on the fuel production cost and the GHG reduction provided by the fuel. This report provides an updated summary of the CO2 abatement costs for various types of biofuels and electrofuels for road transport and aviation, relevant in a Swedish context. Fuel production costs and GHG performance (well to wheel) for the selected renewable fuel pathways are mapped based on published data. The estimated CO2 abatement cost ranges from -0.37 to 4.03 SEK/kg CO2-equivalent. Methane from anaerobic digestion of sewage sludge and ethanol from fermentation of sugarcane and maize end up with negative CO2 abatement cost given the assumptions made, meaning it is more economically beneficial to use than its fossil counterpart.

Electrofuels pathways (particularly diesel and aviation fuels) have, on the other hand, relatively high CO2 abatement costs. Also, so-called bio-electrofuels produced from biogenic excess CO2 from biofuel production and electricity linked to biofuel production generally have higher CO2 abatement costs than the corresponding forest biomass-based biofuel pathway. For forest biomass-based biofuels, bio-electrofuels and electrofuels, methanol, and methane pathways in general have somewhat lower CO2 abatement costs than hydrocarbon-based fuels (gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel).Since most of the assessed renewable fuel pathways achieve substantial GHG emission reduction compared to fossil fuels, the fuel production cost is, in general, more important than the GHG performance to achieve a low CO2 abatement cost. The production cost for fossil fuels also influences the CO2 abatement cost to a large extent. More estimates of cost and GHG performance for gasification of waste-based pathways are needed and for certain pathways under development (e.g., including hydropyrolysis).

Despite the key role of actor networks in progressing new sustainable technologies, there is a shortage of conceptual knowledge on how policy can help strengthen collaborative practices in such networks. The objective of this paper is to analyze the roles of such policies – so-called network management – throughout the entire technological development processes. The analysis draws on the public management and sustainability transitions literatures, and discusses how various network characteristics could affect the development of sustainable technologies, including how different categories of network management strategies could be deployed to influence actor collaborations. The paper's main contribution is an analytical framework that addresses the changing roles of network management at the interface between various phases of the technological development process, illustrated with the empirical case of advanced biorefinery technology development in Sweden. Furthermore, the analysis also addresses some challenges that policy makers are likely to encounter when pursuing network management strategies, and identifies a number of negative consequences of ignoring such instruments in the innovation policy mix. The latter include inefficient actor role-taking, the emergence of small, ineffective and competing actor networks in similar technological fields, and a shortage of interpretative knowledge.

Syftet med denna studie är att studera vilka faktorer som påverkar efterfrågan på fasta biobränslen från Sverige med fokus på pellets samt i vilken utsträckning. Målet är att identifiera och beskriva de omvärldsfaktorer som i störst utsträckning påverkar efterfrågan på fasta svenska pellets och hur dessa faktorer samspelar med varandra. Analysen grundas på en aktörsbaserad sensitivitetsmodell där marknaden beskrivs och studeras tillsammans med en extern expertgrupp. Enligt denna studie verkar efterfrågan på pellets både från storskaliga och småskaliga kunder påverkas av flera av de andra studerade faktorerna. De fem faktorer som totalt sett bedöms påverka efterfrågan på svensk pellets mest är råvarupriset, pelletskvaliteten, temperaturvariationen jämfört med normalår, prisskillnaden mellan pellets och alternativen pga styrmedel med förutbestämd nivå samt tillgänglighet av nya råvaror.  Utav dessa påverkar de fyra första efterfrågan på pellets från småskaliga kunder och de tre sista pelletsefterfrågan från storskaliga kunder.

This report includes a ship concept design developed for a RoPax ship (a ferry transporting passengers and goods) with hydrogen fuel cell propulsion for intended operations on the route Frederikshavn (Denmark) to Gothenburg (Sweden). The assessments, performed within the HOPE (Hydrogen fuel cells solutions in shipping in relation to other low carbon options – a Nordic perspective) project, shows that it is technically feasible to build and operate such a ship with existing technology for the studied route between these two Nordic countries. Also, the costs of such a concept are assessed and compared to other fuel options including: battery-electric propulsion, electro-ammonia, electro-methanol, biomass-based methane, or fossil liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as conventional fossil marine gas oil (MGO).

The overall result from the comparative analysis of the estimated costs is that the hydrogen fuel cell ship, when assuming current or near future costs for the technology and the hydrogen, is estimated to be some 25 percent more expensive than a conventional fossil fuelled (MGO) RoPax ship (when including costs for emissions in the EU emission trading scheme). However, the cost developments are uncertain. In the case that fuel cell prices, and hydrogen prices, are decreasing, and todays cost levels of emission allowances in the EU emission trading scheme (ETS) increase, the hydrogen fuel cell ship could possibly be operated at lower total costs compared to the MGO fuelled ship.

A cost benefit analysis was also performed, comparing costs linked to the technical implementation of hydrogen fuel cell solutions in shipping (with a private and social perspective) to benefits in terms of reduced external costs linked to lower emissions and potential subsides. The cost benefit assessment also confirms that the investment from a private perspective is not cost effective and that additional subsidies may be needed for investments in fuel cell hydrogen technology to take place. The cost effectiveness from a social perspective is strongly dependent on values of highly uncertain parameters.

The impacts of emissions of hydrogen as fuel in a Nordic context were assessed for deployment scenarios for hydrogen and fuel cell solutions in Nordic shipping. There is a considerable potential for emission reductions both in terms of CO2, nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and particulate matter (PM) linked to the implementation of hydrogen and fuel cells in Nordic shipping, particularly in the RoPax segment, representing 30% of total CO2 emissions in 2018. Considering the relatively long lifetime of vessels, investments must be made soon to enable a hydrogen powered shipping fleet in the near future. Since it is currently not economically viable with hydrogen and fuel cells vessels there is need for subsidies and investments in pilots to develop solutions and speed up the process. 

Future ships need to operate with low or possibly zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while ensuring low influence on other environmental impacts and that the operation is economically feasible.

This study conducts a life-cycle evaluation of potential decarbonization solutions involving selected energy carriers (electrolytic hydrogen, electro-ammonia, electro-methanol, and electricity) in different propulsion system setups (engines, fuel cells, and carbon capture technologies) in terms of environmental impact and costs.

The results of the study show that the assessed decarbonization options are promising measures to reduce maritime GHG emissions with low-carbon-intensive electricity.

The same order of GHG reduction is shown to be possible independent of the propulsion system and energy carrier used onboard.

However, the carbon abatement cost ranges from 300 to 550 €/tCO2eq, and there is a trade-off with environmental impacts such as human toxicity (cancer and non-cancer effects) and freshwater ecotoxicity mainly linked with the wind infrastructure used for electricity production.

Electro-ammonia in fuel cells is indicated to be effective in terms of the carbon abatement cost followed by the so-called HyMethShip concept.

The higher abatement cost of all options compared to current options indicates that major incentives and policy measures are required to promote the introduction of alternative fuel and propulsion systems.

The aim of the project is to assess the overall design and consequences of including maritime transports in the EU ETS. An inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS would likely be built upon the data and scope of the current monitoring, reporting and verification system, which is covering the legs of a ship’s route before and after a port call to one of EEA’s states. The CO2 emissions captured by MRV was 141 Mtonnes in 2018, estimated to grow to approximately 178 Mtonnes by 2026 if no abatement measures are taken. Alternatively, only including emissions from intra-EEA shipping would limit the emission scope, estimated to reach approximately 75 Mtonnes in 2026.

The costs for the shipping sector will be determined mainly by 1) the price of allowances and 2) if allowances are given for free or if they are auctioned. Based on our assumptions of 5 to 100 % of allowance auctioned, and a price of 25-70 EUR/tonne CO2 gives an estimated additional cost to the included shipping of 0.2 – 12.5 billion EUR. To set these cost increases into a context, it generates a price increase of between 0.6% and 33% per tonne marine gas oil.

Projektet BIODRIV är en studie kring förutsättningar, möjligheter, begränsningar och risker på kort och lång sikt för svensk produktion av biodrivmedel med visst fokus på de produktionsförutsättningar som erbjuds genom svenska raffinaderier. Totalt har sex teknikspår för biodrivmedelsframställning identifierats som på sikt, helt eller delvis, kan ersätta dagens fossilt baserade bränslen inom transportsektorn. De sex teknikspåren är: 1) metan via gasnät, 2) decentraliserad pyrolys/förgasning, 3) olika resursbaser till fett, 4) vätgas, 5) metanol/DME, 6) elektricitet. För varje teknikspår har ett antal viktiga aspekter belysts: a) råvarutillgång, b) produktion, användning och distribution, c) aktörer, marknad och styrmedel, d) klimatvärdering och miljökonsekvenser, e) forskning och utveckling. Inledningsvis har vart och ett av teknikspåren studerats utifrån målbilden att leverera 25 TWh drivenergi år 2030. För flertalet av teknikspåren är detta möjligt med inhemsk råvaruförsörjning. Undantaget är fett och olja som råvarubas, där den inhemska försörjningsbasen är i storleksordningen 3-4 TWh. För övriga teknikspår kan 25 TWh helt eller delvis uppnås genom omvandling av skogsråvara till energibärare för fordonsdrift, via biomassaförgasning eller, i el-fallet, förbränning i elproducerande kraft(värme)verk

Climate change concerns the energy sector to a high degree because the sector is sensitive both to changing conditions for power and heat production, and to changing demand for electricity, heating and cooling. In this study potential consequences of climate change on different parts of the Swedish energy sector were assessed in a series of workshops, where climate and energy scientists, energy systems experts and analysts met with representativesof the energy sector to assess the vulnerability of the sector and consider what climate indicators could be used to assess impacts of relevance. The impact of climate change depends on the energy type. Hydropower, for which production is naturally linked to weather and climate, is significantly impacted by climate change. For other forms of production, such as nuclear power, other factors such as e.g. policy and technology development are more important. The series of workshops held in this study, where different aspects of climate change and consequences were discussed, proved very successful and has increased our understanding of climate impacts on the energy system.

The aviation industry’s contribution to global human-induced CO2-emissions is expected to increase to 3% by 2050 as demand for aviation grows. An essential component for a carbon-neutral growth is low-carbon, sustainable aviation fuels, for example alternative drop-in fuels with biobased components.

This study aims at answering how combining different policies for the aviation sector can support the production of renewable jet fuel (RJF) in Sweden while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The results demonstrate the importance of implementing policy instruments to promote the production of RJF in Sweden.

The current level of the penalty fee is not sufficient to support the fuel switch to RJF. A higher blending mandate and carbon price will accelerate the transition towards renewable and sustainable fuels for the aviation industry.

This report describes measures to reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions and estimates CO2 emissions from using forest residues for energy due to impacts on biogenic carbon stocks.

Measures to reduce emissions of methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases have been described and quantified where possible. The measures presented for methane is reduced methane leakage from landfills, leakage from transmission and distribution of natural gas and methane from incomplete combustion. Landfills are currently the second largest source of methane emissions in Sweden and the potential to reduce methane leakage is estimated to be 800 kilotonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents, or more than 60% reduction from present emissions. The potential to reduce methane leakage from natural gas pipelines have not been quantified. It is estimated that methane from incomplete combustion could be almost entirely avoided. For nitrous oxide, two different measures were studied. Nitrous oxide from fluidized beds has a reduction potential estimated to around 20 %. However, a study of the reduction potential in the EU-27 shows significantly higher reduction potential.

Projections of nitrous oxide emissions from road vehicles show increased emissions to 2020 despite measures. The fluorinated gases analysed is HFC leakage from air conditioners and SF6 from switchgears and switchers. The reduction potential is considered high for HFC leakage from AC in vehicles, mainly due to the replacement of HFCs with a high GWP to HFCs with lower climate impact. For sulphur hexafluoride, emission projections show only modest reductions to 2020.

Den här rapporten finns endast på engelska. Svensk sammanfattning finns i rapporten.