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  • 1.
    Kindbom, Karin
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Helbig, Tobias
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Mawdsley, Ingrid
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Measures to reduce emissions of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP) in the Nordic countries2018Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    A number of measures to abate emissions of SLCPs are, to varying degrees, already in place in the Nordic countries. National emission projections, taking existing legislation and measures into account, show that total emissions of black carbon (BC) and methane (CH4) are expected to decrease to 2030. In the future, residential biomass combustion and transport will be important sources of BC, as will agriculture and waste management for CH4-emissions. The objective in this part of the project was to identify efficient additional measures to reduce emissions of SLCPs beyond the current emission projections.

    The assessment primarily covers BC and CH4, but as BC is part of emitted particulate matter (PM2.5) and many measures are focusing on PM2.5, reduction of PM2.5 emissions is also included in the analysis. Both technical measures, such as filters or improved technologies, and non-technical measures, such as promoting behavioural changes favouring reduced emissions are discussed in this report.

    A combined SLCP analysis using the GAINS model (and based on the ECLIPSE project results for the Nordic countries) was carried out and additional technical measures for reduced SLCP emissions in the individual Nordic countries were assessed. The analysis shows that in order to reach the modelled technical emission reduction potential for black carbon, measures within the residential wood combustion sector should be prioritized. Among the efficient technical measures are replacement of older boilers and heating stoves with new appliances, installation of ESP (electrostatic precipitator) and high-efficiency dedusters, and fuel switch from wood logs to pellets. According to the model results, these measures would provide the highest reduction potential for BC for Denmark, Finland and Sweden, while for Norway good practice in flaring in oil and gas industries has the highest reduction potential. In Iceland the introduction of EUR 6/VI on 100% of road diesel transport is most important.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 2.
    Kindbom, Karin
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Wisell, Tomas
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Sjödin, Åke
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kortlivade klimatpåverkande luftföroreningar (SLCP)2015Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    IVL has on commission from the Swedish Cross-Party Committee on Environmental Objectives (Miljömålsberedningen) compiled information on present and future emissions of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP) in Sweden, as well as performed an analysis of further emission reduction potentials and associated costs in 2030. Main results from the study: According to the Swedish emission projections, which take current legislation into account, the national total emissions of all SLCPs will be lower in 2030 compared to today. The trend, however, is different for different sources. Emissions from road traffic are expected to decline significantly. From other mobile sources reductions are also expected, but to a lesser extent than from road traffic. Emissions from residential combustion of biomass are expected to remain at about the same level as at present, why these emissions in relative terms will increase in importance. Mobile sources and residential combustion, which produce emissions from combustion of fuels, emit all SLCPs except HFCs. The agricultural sector is the main emission source for CH4 both today and in the future. For NMVOC emissions from the “solvent and product use” sector is the dominating source. CH4 from the agricultural sector, as well as NMVOC from product and solvent use, are both reduced only slightly to 2030 according to the projections. Emissions of CH4 and NMVOC from other sources are projected be reduced to a greater extent. Agriculture will thus be of relatively greater importance for emissions of CH4 in the future, as will solvent and product use for NMVOC emissions. Emissions of HFCs are expected to decline significantly in the future and there is most likely no cost-effective potential for further reductions of HFC emissions. There is currently no comprehensive Swedish analysis available of cost-effective measures to reduce emissions of SLCP in Sweden 2030. Best available knowledge suggests that there will be technical emission reduction measures available, with a potential to reduce emissions in 2030 beyond currently projected emissions. This report is only available in Swedish.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 3.
    Moldanova, Jana
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Gustafsson, Malin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Tang, L.
    O. P. Ramacher, M.
    Matthias, V.
    Karl, M.
    Johansson, L.
    Jalkanen, J-P.
    Aulinger, A.
    The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part I: 2012 emissions2020Inngår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 20, s. 7509 – 7530-Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Ship emissions in and around ports are of interest for urban air quality management in many harbour cities. We investigated the impact of regional and local ship emissions on urban air quality for 2012 conditions in the city of Gothenburg, Sweden, the largest cargo port in Scandinavia. In order to assess the effects of ship emissions, a coupled regional- and local-scale model system has been set up using ship emissions in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea as well as in and around the port of Gothenburg. Ship emissions were calculated with the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM), taking into account individual vessel characteristics and vessel activity data. The calculated contributions from local and regional shipping to local air pollution in Gothenburg were found to be substantial, especially in areas around the city ports. The relative contribution from local shipping to annual mean NO2 concentrations was 14 % as the model domain average, while the relative contribution from regional shipping in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea was 26 %. In an area close to the city terminals, the contribution of NO2 from local shipping (33 %) was higher than that of road traffic (28 %), which indicates the importance of controlling local shipping emissions. Local shipping emissions of NOx led to a decrease in the summer mean O3 levels in the city by 0.5 ppb (∼2 %) on average. Regional shipping led to a slight increase in O3 concentrations; however, the overall effect of regional and the local shipping together was a small decrease in the summer mean O3 concentrations in the city. In addition, volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from local shipping compensate up to 4 ppb of the decrease in summer O3 concentrations due to the NO titration effect. For particulate matter with a median aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 µm (PM2.5), local ship emissions contributed only 3 % to the annual mean in the model domain, while regional shipping under 2012 conditions was a larger contributor, with an annual mean contribution of 11 % of the city domain average. Based on the modelled local and regional shipping contributions, the health effects of PM2.5, NO2 and ozone were assessed using the ALPHA-RiskPoll (ARP) model. An effect of the shipping-associated PM2.5 exposure in the modelled area was a mean decrease in the life expectancy by 0.015 years per person. The relative contribution of local shipping to the impact of total PM2.5 was 2.2 %, which can be compared to the 5.3 % contribution from local road traffic. The relative contribution of the regional shipping was 10.3 %. The mortalities due to the exposure to NO2 associated with shipping were calculated to be 2.6 premature deaths yr−1. The relative contribution of local and regional shipping to the total exposure to NO2 in the reference simulation was 14 % and 21 %, respectively. The shipping-related ozone exposures were due to the NO titration effect leading to a negative number of premature deaths. Our study shows that overall health impacts of regional shipping can be more significant than those of local shipping, emphasizing that abatement policy options on city-scale air pollution require close cooperation across governance levels. Our findings indicate that the strengthened Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECAs) fuel sulphur limit from 1 % to 0.1 % in 2015, leading to a strong decrease in the formation of secondary particulate matter on a regional scale was an important step in improving the air quality in the city.

  • 4.
    Munthe, John
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kindbom, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Parsmo, Rasmus
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Technical Background Report to the Global Mercury Assessment 20182019Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    A joint UN Environment and AMAP report that presents the latest and comprehensive information of global mercury emissions and releases to the environment, information on atmospheric and aquatic chemistry and fate and transport of mercury. The report is a fully referenced scientific background report for the Global Mercury Assessment 2018.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 5.
    Parsmo, Rasmus
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Winnes, Hulda
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Fridell, Erik
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    NOX Abatement in the Baltic Sea2017Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The background is the decision to establish a NOX Emission Control Area (NECA) in the region requiring ships to follow Tier III NOX emission regulations from 2021. To achieve further and more rapid reductions of NOX emissions than what is expected from the NECA, additional policy instruments have been discussed. The policy instruments analysed in this study are assumed to be additional to the NECA requirements. Our study describes changes of emissions and costs for existing ships with Tier II engines when upgrading for lower NOX emissions. Of the many existing technological alternatives to accomplish NOX reduction, this study focuses on liquefied natural gas (LNG) engines and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) for after treatment of exhaust gas. Emissions of NOX in 2030 are modeled for scenarios in which different policy instruments are assumed. The use of LNG and abatement equipment is modeled with the assumption that ship-owners choose the most advantageous option from a cost perspective.

    The most effective policy instrument found in this study is the refundable emission payment (REP) scheme. The reduction of emissions depends on the fee and subsidy rate applied. For example, a subsidy rate of 60% and a fee of 1 €/kg NOX is modelled to reduce the yearly emissions of NOX from shipping in the Baltic Sea in 2030 by about 53 ktonnes. A NOX tax will also have a significant effect on the NOX emissions, but in this case the costs for ship-owners are significantly higher. Applying a CO2 tax or environmentally differentiated port dues in the model are found to have less impact on the NOX emissions. Introducing slow steaming has a potential to reduce NOX emissions In another scenario the effects on emissions from a financial investments support for abatement technology or LNG engines are modeled. At an interest rate of 0 % emissions are reduced significantly.

    According to our model, an extended NECA, where also other sea areas than the Baltic and North Seas become NECAs, has no further impact on the NOX emissions in the Baltic Sea. However, since the abatement equipment is used for more hours in a global NECA it will reduce the abatement cost per kg NOX.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 6.
    Stadmark, Johanna
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Jutterström, Sara
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Moldan, Filip
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Swedish National Nitrogen Budget - Energy and fuels2023Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    This report presents pool 1 “Energy and fuels” (EF) in the Swedish national nitrogen budget (NNB). The EF pool is divided into four sub-pools; Energy conversion (EC), Manufacturing industries and construction (IC), Transport (TR) and Other energy and fuels (OE).

    The Swedish data presented in this report are for 2015 whenever possible. If data were not available for 2015, available information for the year closest to 2015 have been used. The data were collected from Swedish official statistics and reports and preferably from sources that will continue to be updated, to make it easier to evaluate possible changes in N budgets in the future.

    Emissions of reactive nitrogen (Nr) to the atmosphere via various combustion processes have been quantified as they have been reported to international conventions (CLRTAP and UNFCCC) broken down by the codes used in those reports. 

    The largest emissions of Nr occur from transport (24.1 kt), followed by manufacturing and construction (6.7 kt), other energy and fuels (4.9 kt) and energy conversion (4.8 kt). The majority of reactive nitrogen emissions from this sector (> 90 percent) consists of NOx, and otherwise of N2O and NH3.

    The import of primarily crude oil and of other oil-based fuels means a flow of N from the rest of the world to Sweden (53.5 kt). A fraction of this amount is converted to reactive forms and emitted to the atmosphere during combustion. The main part of the NOx that is emitted from fuel combustion is, however, formed when nitrogen in the air is oxidized during the combustion (thermal production of NOx) and does not originate from the N in the fuel. Remaining N in the crude oil and oil products is either removed from the fuel during cracking in refineries or converted to N2 during combustion. Development of combustion processes where NOx is not formed leads to lower emissions.  Biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel are produced from e.g. wheat and rapeseed. A large part of the nitrogen present in these crops will remain in the residual products after fuel production and can be used for animal feed. They do not result in any emissions of reactive nitrogen in this national nitrogen budget.

    The national nitrogen budgets do not include international transport (shipping, aviation), so additional emissions of reactive nitrogen will need to be added if a global aggregation is to be made.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 7.
    Winnes, Hulda
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Granberg, Maria
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Magnusson, Kerstin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Malmaeus, Mikael
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Mellin, Anna
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Stripple, Håkan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Zhang, Yuqing
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Scrubbers: Closing the loop; Activity 3. Summary; Environmental analysis of marine exhaust gas scrubbers on two Stena Line ships.2018Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    This is a summary and a joint analysis of four studies on environmental aspects of the use of exhaust gas SO2 -scrubbers on ships. Based on measurements and analyses of emissions and effluents from scrubber systems on ferries in Stena Line’s fleet we draw conclusions on environmental effects of the installations. The studies are part of the EU-funded project “Scrubbers: Closing the loop”. The use of exhaust gas scrubbers on ships is an alternative to the use of low sulphur fuels from a legal perspective. Both options fulfil existing international standards on sulphur emissions from ships in the Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECA) implemented by the IMO. The environmental effects of a wide spread use of exhaust gas scrubbers are relevant topics for discussion as the limit for sulphur in marine fuel will be reduced globally 2020 and a large increase in the use of scrubbers is likely to follow. Our environmental analyses indicate that the use of a low sulphur fuel oil as marine fuel is favourable compared to the use of heavy fuel oil in combination with an exhaust gas scrubber, from an environmental risk perspective.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 8.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    GAINS and EMEP modelling in the Russian Federation - Analysis on the regional level2019Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The report summarizes the results of the integrated assessment modelling work with the focus on the exploring advantages of model regionalization. The main results are as follows:
    • New region-specific complete input data sets for the GAINS Russia model of good quality, based on the national statistics and resulting in emissions corresponding well with the official emission inventory results for the base year 2010.
    • New region-specific baseline scenarios in GAINS Russia for the years 2020 and 2030.
    • Region-specific GAINS scenarios for NOx and agricultural ammonia, reflecting potential emission reduction efforts within the Gothenburg Protocol under the UNECE CLRTAP and analysis of alternative ways to decide on spatial distribution of abatement measures and costs in order to reach a certain emission reduction target.
    • Summary of historical black carbon emission estimates for the Russian Federation and their sectoral and regional structure.
    • Region-specific GAINS scenarios for black carbon, targeting three large emitting sectors – flaring of associated gases in the oil industry, diesel non-road transport, and residential combustion; analysis of the resulting emissions, measures, costs and health benefits.
    • Updated sets of gridded emission data for the Russian Federation for EMEP modelling.
    • Analysis of the EMEP model performance and the impact of input data updates and fine resolution on the modelling results.
    • Verification of EMEP modelling results for the Russian Federation with available observation data.
    • Analysis of the fine resolution in the EMEP model on the resulting trans-boundary effects.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 9.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Fridell, Erik
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Environmental assessment of Sweden-related LNG fleet in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea2019Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this study is to provide estimates of emissions from the liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuelled ships related to Sweden, and to outline benefits for society through reduced external costs of air pollutants and greenhouse gases from fuel shift from marine gasoil (MGO) to LNG. The total societal benefits from the Sweden-related LNG fleet in 2017 are estimated at 17.4 million €2010. This estimate includes reduced health and climate impacts and reduced crop damage.

    The largest contributor to the benefits is positive impact of emission reductions on population health. Lower emissions of primary particles (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) from LNG vessels, compared to a reference fleet running on MGO, result in lower concentrations of primary and secondary PM2.5 and ground-level ozone, and subsequently reduced premature mortality. Differences in emissions of main air pollutants between the analysed LNG fleet of 12 ships and a reference MGO fleet in 2017 are calculated to 100 tonnes of SO2, 160 tonnes of PM2.5 and 3 200 tonnes of NOx. The reduced NOX emissions correspond to the emissions from 24 300 average heavy duty trucks with an average mileage on the Swedish roads during the same year. Emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2 equivalents) are modelled to be similar for the LNG fleet and the MGO fuelled reference fleet: emissions of CO2 equivalents from the MGO fleet are estimated to be 6 ktonnes higher in 2017.

    Estimated emissions for 2022 are calculated assuming that present and already ordered LNG ships run mainly on LNG. The difference in emissions between these ships and reference ships fuelled with MGO is then significantly larger and constitutes 385 tonnes of SO2, 540 tonnes of PM2.5 and 11 200 tonnes of NOx. Emissions of greenhouse gases in 2022 are estimated at 640 ktonnes CO2 equivalents for the LNG fleet and 660 ktonnes CO2 equivalents for the MGO fleet.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 10.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kindbom, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Mawdsley, Ingrid
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Particle emissions in Belarus and in the Nordic countries - Emission inventories and integated assessment modelling of black carbon and PM2.52018Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The overall goal of the project is to stimulate decision-makers in Belarus to prioritize abatement measures aimed at black carbon in their efforts to reduce emissions of PM2.5, as encouraged in the Gothenburg protocol under the UNECE CLRTAP. To reach this purpose and in order to build up scientific basis necessary for further policy development, a comprehensive analysis of PM2.5 and BC emissions, emission reduction potentials and cost-effective abatement measures in Belarus has been conducted.

    The report presents two main parts of the conducted analysis: a part focused on the emission inventories, and a part summarizing the results of the integrated assessment modelling. The main focus is on analysis for Belarus; however, a range of modelling results have been obtained for the three participating Nordic countries – Denmark, Finland and Sweden.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 11.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Mellin, Anna
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Malmaeus, Mikael
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Winnes, Hulda
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Scrubbers: Closing the loop; Activity 3. Task 3; Cost benefit analysis.2018Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    This report presents the results of a cost benefit analysis (CBA) of ship operations on HFO together with open-loop and closed-loop scrubbers, compared to low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). An increasing number of ships are expected to be equipped with SO2 exhaust gas cleaning, so called scrubber technology, in response to stricter global regulations on sulphur emissions from ships in 2020. The compliance strategy for ship owners is either to use a low sulphur fuel, or to continue operations on HFO and install exhaust gas SO2 scrubbers on board their ships.

    The resulting external costs of environmental and health damage associated with air and water emissions are higher for the scrubber scenarios than in the case of low-sulphur fuel use. The external costs were to a large extent influenced by the fuel needed to run the scrubbers. The fuel penalty associated with the use of scrubbers causes more emission than the low sulphur fuel oil option, followed by higher external costs. From an environmental and health perspective and in line with the precautionary principle, operations on low sulphur fuels therefore seem to be more preferable than operations on HFO together with an exhaust gas scrubber.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 12.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Winnes, Hulda
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Fridell, Erik
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Cost-benefit analysis of NOX control for ships in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea2017Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Emissions of air pollutants from shipping (NOx, SOx, and PM2.5) make a significant contribution to the total emissions in Europe and world-wide. According to the analysis by Brandt et al. (2013), shipping emissions cause about 50 thousand premature deaths per year in Europe. Significant share of the sulphur and nitrogen deposition that causes acidification and eutrophication emanates from ship emissions. NOx emissions contribute to formation of secondary particles and ozone, resulting in increased number of respiratory and cardio-vascular diseases among the population, especially in coastal states.

    NOx emissions from anthropogenic sources reported by the 28 member countries of the European Union to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) amounted to ∼7820 ktonnes in 2014 (CEIP, 2017) whereas emissions from international shipping in the European seas for the same year are estimated at 3186 ktonnes (EMEP, 2016). As more stringent NOx emission control is gradually enforced for stationary and mobile sources on land, the share of NOx emission reduction potential attributable to international shipping is expected to increase in the future.

    One instrument is a NOx emission control area (NECA) in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea; the other is a combination of NECA and a NOx levy with revenues going back to shipping companies as subsidy for NOx abatement uptake. Both instruments are assumed to be in force in 2021. In the analysis, we operate with three main scenarios: • Baseline (no additional policy instruments) • NECA • NECA+Levy&fund

    In the NECA scenario we assume that no extra use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is introduced and that the Tier III requirements for marine gasoil (MGO) fuelled vessels are fulfilled by installing selective catalytic reduction (SCR). In the NECA+Levy&fund scenario it is further assumed that Tier 0 vessels will not install SCR but pay levy instead, and that 75 per cent of Tier I and Tier II vessels will take up retrofit SCR, given that it is more profitable than paying the levy.

    Total abatement costs have been assessed from the socio-economic perspective, implying low interest rate and long investment lifetime at investment costs’ annualization. Health benefits have been estimated with the GAINS and the Alpha-RiskPoll models. The method for estimating health benefits is the same as applied in cost-benefit analyses supporting the European Commission’s work on the air pollution abatement strategies and the work of the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 13.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Jerksjö, Martin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Bäckström, Sebastian
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Energy demand impacts of Long Heavy Duty Vehicles -Analysis of possible ways to introduce the effects of long vehicles into the GAINS model2014Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    The objective of this study was to explore possible approaches to explicitly include the use of long heavy duty vehicles (vehicles with a total weight over 40 ton and a total length over 18.75 meter) as an energy efficiency measure in the GAINS model, to assess their efficiency in terms of transport work (ton-kilometres) and traffic work (vehicle-kilometres), and to provide a basis for the analysis of the emission mitigation potential with respect to this vehicle category, currently not distinguished in the model. Potential substitution of long heavy duty vehicles with conventional European vehicles for goods transportation in Sweden was modelled and analysed. Calculation results indicated that one conventional European vehicle would consume 22 per cent less fuel per traffic work but 30 per cent more fuel per transport work than one long heavy duty vehicle. As a net effect, the total fuel consumption of heavy duty trucks would increase by 24 percent if long heavy duty vehicles were withdrawn. For the Swedish conditions represented in this analysis, the use of long heavy duty vehicles appears to be more fuel efficient than to use conventional EU vehicles. The main conclusions of this study is that it is possible to develop an integrated assessment model method for presenting long heavy duty vehicles as a fuel efficiency option in the transport sector, but that the benefit of the option is dependent on assumptions in the input data. Improved system understanding, statistical data, and scenarios would be needed for representation of long heavy duty vehicles as a general fuel efficiency option in future analyses.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 14.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Källmark, Lovisa
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Grennfelt, Peringe
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet. IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet AB.
    European and Central Asian Actions on Air Quality: A regional summary of emission trends, policies, and programs to reduce air pollution2021Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The report provides detailed information on emission trends and European actions on air quality during 2016-2020, in support of the second UNEP global summary report of policies and programmes to reduce air pollution. The pollutants in focus are sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, non-methane volatile organic compounds, ammonia, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). 

    Thanks to the continued strengthening of policies developed under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, EU policies and legislation, as well as national legislations, emissions of most monitored air pollutants have decreased. Since 2010, this trend has continued in Western, Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe. Emissions are however increasing in Central Asian countries. Looking at the entire European and Central Asian region covered in this report, there is one pollutant that stands out: ammonia. Ammonia emissions have in all sub-regions increased during 2010-2017, and there is no sign of decline.

    The EU member states and Norway, UK and Switzerland, with the largest past emission reductions, are also those with well-developed air quality monitoring and assessment infrastructure. In addition, these countries report the largest portfolio of further actions to reduce emissions in a cost-effective manner, including investments in energy efficiency improvements as well as in clean technologies. Awareness and progress in efforts to improve air quality assessment infrastructures in Eastern and South Eastern Europe as well as Central Asia are improving, and there are several examples of knowledge-sharing initiatives and capacity building efforts.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 15.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Källmark, Lovisa
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Grennfelt, Peringe
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Меры по обеспечению качества воздуха в Европе и Центральной Азии: Региональный обзор трендов выбросов, стратегий и программ по снижению загрязнения воздуха2021Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [ru]

    В докладе представлена детальная информация относительно трендов выбросов и мер по обеспечению качества воздуха в Европе за период 2016-2020 в поддержку второго глобального обзора ЮНЕП стратегий и программ по снижению загрязнения воздуха. Рассматриваемые в докладе загрязнители – диоксид серы, оксиды азота, неметановые летучие органические соединения, аммиак и мелкодисперсные твердые частицы (PM2.5).

    Благодаря продолжающемуся усилению стратегий, разработанных в рамках Конвенции ЕЭК ООН о Трансграничном Загрязнении Воздуха на Большие Расстояния (КТЗВБР), стратегиям и законодательству ЕС, а также национальным законодательствам, выбросы большинства загрязнителей снизились. Этот тренд продолжается и после 2010 года в странах Западной, Центральной, Восточной и Юго-Восточной Европы. Выбросы однако растут в странах Центральной Азии. Во всем общеевропейском регионе, рассматриваемом в рамках данного доклада, можно выделить один загрязнитель, отличающийся трендом от остальных – аммиак. Выбросы аммиака в период 2010-2017 возросли во всех под-регионах, и признаков снижения пока не наблюдается. 

    Страны-члены ЕС, Норвегия, Великобритания и Швейцария, являясь странами с наиболее заметными снижениями выбросов в прошлом, обладают хорошо развитой инфраструктурой мониторинга и оценки качества воздуха. Кроме того, по результатам опроса, в этих странах наиболее разнообразно портфолио дальнейших мер по затратно-эффективному снижению выбросов, включая инвестиции в повышение энергоэффективности и в чистые технологии. В странах Юго-Восточной Европы, Восточной Европы и Центральной Азии наблюдается рост осведомленности и активизация усилий по улучшению инфраструктуры оценки качества воздуха; имеются хорошие примеры инициатив по обмену опытом и знаниями и укреплению потенциала.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 16.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Morozova, Irina
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Tsyro, Svetlana
    Ignateva, Yulia
    Volkova, Kristina
    Valiyaveetil, Semeena
    Tohka, Antti
    Heyes, Chris
    Cofala, Janusz
    Schöpp, Wolfgang
    Sander, Robert
    Lindblad, Maria
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Capacity building on decision support for air pollution policies – results from Nordic-Russian co-operation2013Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    In 2010 the Nordic Council of Ministers initiated a research project with the aims to enable capacity building on the EMEP/MSC-W model, expand data inventories in the Russian Federation, and to develop a Russian version of the GAINS model. The project activities were: Identification of regions to be modelled; EMEP/MSC-W model calculations and capacity building; GAINS model development and adaptation; Emissions & Data inventories and consistency checks; GAINS model scenario analysis. The project resulted in an updated GAINS Russia model, regionalised and sector-specific emission inventories, region-specific source-receptor calculations, and EMEP/MSC-W model training activities. Finally, regionalised emission abatement scenarios were analysed and showed large differences between regions in terms of potential emission reductions and emission abatement costs. The Russian Federation has now established analytical capacity related to the GAINS and EMEP/MSC-W models, the GAINS Russia model has been updated and improved, and a process for preparing input data inventories has been initiated. The Russian Federation can now launch independent research on cost effective emission reductions in the Russian Federation and analyse consequences on human health and the environment.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 17.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Blomgren, Håkan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Compilation of emission factors for biofuels into the GAINS model script2011Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    The use of ethanol and biodiesel in the transport sector is increasing in line with the latest legislation, stimulating use of biofuels in efforts to reduce CO2 emissions. At the same time, the aspect of effects from use of biofuel on air quality is a rather contradictory issue, which is currently being studied in many countries. The GAINS model, developed by the International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA) and widely used to provide support to air quality policies, does not provide a possibility to consider emission factors for biofuels used in the transport sector (with exception for CO2).The objective of this study is to link the biofuel share in the transport sector to available emission factors for biofuels, to provide a new emission calculation equation based on this linkage (emissions as a function of biofuel use), to introduce the equation into the GAINS Sweden script, and to compare the results obtained for several scenarios for the Swedish transport sector with different assumed levels of biofuel use. An equation, taking into consideration lower emission factors for NOx and PM from ethanol-fuelled passenger cars, has been derived and successfully compiled into the GAINS Sweden script. A generic equation applicable to other pollutants has also been derived. Calculation results indicate that introducing emission factors for biofuels does not have a significant effect on air pollutant emissions from the transport sector in Sweden. Full replacement of gasoline with ethanol for passenger cars in 2020 reduces emissions of NOx by 1.48 kt and PM by 0.06 kt, according to the baseline scenario (2009). An important prerequisite for obtaining reliable emission results in the GIAINS model is properly quantified emission factors. Further research on emission factors for biofuels is needed since currently used factors are not commonly accepted. The study has been performed within the SCARP research program.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 18.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Mawdsley, Ingrid
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Danielsson, Helena
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Grennfelt, Peringe
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Ekvall, Tomas
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Gerner, Annika
    O. Ahlgren, Erik
    The impact of Swedish SO2 policy instruments on SO2 emissions 1990-20122017Inngår i: Journal of Environmental Science and Policy, Vol. 77, s. 32-39Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions cause acidification and human health problems which are, despite present policy instruments, projected to remain even after 2030 in Europe. Additional instruments are needed to solve the problems, and impact analysis of already used policy instruments would contribute to the development of new effective instruments. We present a study on how much of the decoupling of SO2 emissions from economic growth 1990–2012 that was due to SO2 policy instruments in general and to what extent it is possible to estimate the impact of individual instruments. Focus is on Sweden, a country with problems reaching its SO2-related environmental policy targets and with detailed data available.

    We applied decomposition analysis combined with an analysis of the chronological development of emission factors and mandated emission limits. Our use of official emission inventory data and publicly available data on the development of SO2 policy instruments increase the usefulness of our results to policy makers.

    The results indicate that at least 26–27% (corresponding to ∼35–36 ktonne annually) of the decoupling 1990–2012 was due to SO2 policy instruments. 4–5% (∼6–7 ktonne) of the decoupling was caused by one environmental permit decision and stricter sulphur emission limit for marine oils. Most of the total impact of SO2 policy instruments could not be causally connected to an individual instrument, because many events and developments overlap in time.

    The implications of the results are that: a) SO2 policy instruments should still be important to reduce SO2 emissions in many countries; b) a lower boundary total emission impact of SO2 policy instruments can be estimated, but with current knowledge and data the impacts of individual instruments are rarely possible to estimate. Research on how to increase the precision in total impact estimates of SO2 policy instruments is needed to improve future impact analyses. More detailed emission inventory data would improve impact analysis of individual instruments.

  • 19.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Winnes, Hulda
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Fridell, Erik
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Holland, Michael
    The costs and benefits of a nitrogen emission control area in the Baltic and North Seas2018Inngår i: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, ISSN 1361-9209, E-ISSN 1879-2340, Vol. 59, s. 223-236Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Air pollution is the largest health risk from environmental causes, mainly driven by human exposure to fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm (PM2.5). Emissions from combustion engines (including ship engines) contribute to PM2.5 in ambient air both with primary particles (black carbon), organic carbon, and other particles) and with secondary particles formed from exhaust gases – mainly nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulphur oxides (SOX). NOx and SOx react with ammonia (NH3) in the atmosphere to form secondary inorganic aerosols, which have been shown to constitute ∼30–50% of PM2.5 levels in ambient air in northern and central European countries.

    We analyse the potential for emission reduction, emission control costs, and monetised benefits following the introduction of a NECA. Costs and benefits are compared for 2030. We compile new data on emission control costs for shipping, use the GAINS model for calculations of emission dispersion, and the Alpha-RiskPoll model for estimating monetary values of health impacts. The model results show that costs to conform to the NOX regulations of a NECA in the Baltic Sea, North Sea or both sea regions would be 111 (100–123), 181 (157–209), and 230 (195–273) million € per year, respectively.

    Corresponding benefits from reduced emissions are estimated to be 139 (56–294), 869 (335–1882), and 1007 (392–2177) million € per year, respectively. Calculated benefits surpass costs for most scenarios, but less convincingly for a Baltic Sea NECA. Conforming to the NECA regulations by using Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) propulsion engines is estimated to give the highest net benefits but also the largest variation (costs: 153 (88–238), benefits: 1556 (49–3795) million €/year). The variations are mainly due to uncertainties in the valuation of avoided fatalities and climate impacts. It is concluded that the NECAs for the Baltic and North Seas can be justified using CBA under all but extreme assumptions.

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