IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

We have studied the possibility to introduce biobased fuels as marine fuels. A business model in which low carbon marine freight is offered to shippers is analysed. The model is in many ways similar to existing schemes in the energy sector (“green electricity”, biogas and district heating). A fundamental principle of the model is that the cost increase in transportation when biobased fuels are used can be transferred to the end consumer. Technical aspects, fuel supply issues, economic implications, and freight market aspects are all considered from a perspective of using liquid biobased fuel on ships. We find that both HVO and FAME/RME are suitable options to blend in fossil marine fuelsIn a continuation of this work, a project with real life tests is aimed for. In a workshop we therefore gathered stakeholders that have key roles in the proposed business model. A number of shippers that joined the workshop showed an interest in trying this model in cooperation with ship owners that provide their transports.

Fritidsbåtars avgasutsläpp till vatten och luft har undersökts. Tre inombords dieselmotorer och en 2-takts utombordsmotor har testats med standardbränslen och miljöanpassade bränslen. För dieselmotorerna användes standarddiesel, syntetisk diesel (GTL), rapsmetylester (RME), jetbränsle samt olika blandningar av diesel och RME. 2-taktsmotorn testades med standardbensin, alkylatbensin samt etanol (E85). För testerna med etanol krävdes en konvertering av motorn. Ekotoxikologiska tester har gjorts på kylvatten från dieselmotorer och på vatten som bubblats med avgaser från utombordsmotor. GTL gav något lägre utsläpp till luft av partiklar, kolväten, kolmonoxid och kväveoxider än vad standarddiesel gav. RME gav betydligt lägre halt partiklar och kolväten men något mer kväveoxider. Kylvatten från en inombords dieselmotor var giftigt mot sebrafiskar och kräftdjur. kylvatten. GTL och RME gav ett kylvatten som var betydligt mindre giftigt mot sebrafiskar än vad standarddiesel gav. PAH-utsläppen till vatten från dieselmotorerna var 10-20 mg per liter diesel. Utsläppen från de traditionella 2-takts utombordarna dominerar tydligt utsläppsmängderna. Standardbensin gav höga halter av miljö- och hälsofarliga ämnen, bland annat bensen, PAHer och formaldehyd. En liter bensin gav cirka 2,3 g PAH. Alkylatbensin och etanolbränslet E85 gav betydligt mindre utsläpp. Sveriges fritidsbåtar släpper uppskattningsvis ut 75 ton PAH per år. Avgasvatten från utombordare var giftigt för bakterier, alger och kräftdjur. Standardbensin var giftigast för bakterier och kräftdjur. Alkylatbensin var mindre giftig mot bakterier och kräftdjur. För alger var skillnaden liten mellan standardbensin, alkylatbensin och E85. Merparten av fritidsbåtarnas förbrukning av bensin och diesel sker i kustvatten. Trots det kan det vara i sjöar och mindre vattendrag som effekterna av utsläppen är störst. Traditionella tvåtaktare används även i sjöar som utnyttjas till dricksvatten och fiske av matfisk och kräftor. Studien visar relativt stor miljöpåverkan från den traditionella 2-takts utombordare som undersökts. Resultaten indikerar att alkylatbensin ger betydligt mindre risker. E85 kan också vara ett alternativ till standardbensin. Det går utmärkt att köra en utombordare på E85, men det kräver en konvertering av motorn vilket gör att det inte är aktuellt för flertalet användare. De observerade emissionerna av aldehyder ger anledning till att studera detta närmare. Det verkar som om bensin ger mer formaldehyd än etanol, medan etanol ger mer acetaldehyd, men testerna är inte tillräckligt omfattande för att göra en fullständig bedömning. Projektet föreslår ytterligare undersökningar bland annat av kylvatten från inombordare och aldehyder i avgaser från utombordare

EU recently decided to include shipping, meaning all intra-European shipping and50% of extra-European voyages, in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)beginning in 2024. This article provides an early assessment of the impacts of theEU ETS on the shipping sector’s potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissionsfor different types of ships. It further examines selected mitigation measures andthe impact on modals split and costs. The study employs a mixed-methodsapproach  combining  quantitative  estimates  (based  on  data  from  the  EUmonitoring,  reporting  and  verification  system)  with  qualitative  data  andinformation from interviews with key actors and from previous literature.

This approach aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of theEU ETS. The inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS is expected to introduce significantincentives to reduce emissions. We estimate that switching to bio-methanol at anemissions allowance price of€90–100/tCO2will be cost-effective for a minor shareof shipping segments (representing about 0.5-5% of all ships), whereas at a priceabove€150/tCO2it could be cost-effective for a considerable share (potentially75%) of ships. In the short term, the costs incurred by the EU ETS will be passed onto transport customers as a surcharge. The increased cost may, unless properlyaddressed, drive carbon leakage. Meanwhile, a modal shift away from shippingmay occur in the roll-on, roll-off(RoRo) and roll-on passenger (RoPax) segmentsdue to direct competition with road and rail transport and the relative ease ofshifting to other modes of transport.

The fuel sulfur content in marine fuels has been regulated in Sulfur Emission Control Areas (SECAs) since January 2015. However, other fuel characteristics are also believed to have an impact on particle emissions, particularly on the number of particles emitted. This study investigates the impact of the content of aromatics in fuel. To achieve fuel blends with concentrations of aromatics similar to those found in marine fuel oils, i.e. 20%–30% by volume (%vol.), normal diesel oil (4%–5% vol. aromatics) is doped with a mixture of aromatics.

Emission measurements are conducted in test-bed engine facilities and particle emissions over a wide size range are analyzed. Results show a decreased number of particles emitted (or not change) with an increase in the aromatic concentration in fuel. This is because there is a reduction in the cetane number of the fuel with an increased aromatic content, which effects the combustion process and results in decreased particle formation. However, when ignition improver is used to increase the cetane number, particle emissions remain at a lower level than for normal diesel oil; thereby emphasizing the presence of other factors in the formation of particles.

This report is only available in Swedish.

Beräkning av emissioner från transportinfrasruktur

This report is only available in Swedish.

Sjöfarten står inför en stor omställning mot fossilfri drift av fartygen. Denna rapport beskriver styrmedel, tekniska frågor, hinder och scenarier för framtiden relaterat till denna utveckling. Inom IMO (International Maritime Organization) finns mål uppsatta för en minskning av utsläppen av växthusgaser från sjöfarten, styrmedel för kortsiktiga åtgärder finns på plats, främst avseende energieffektivisering, och mer långsiktiga ”market based measures” diskuteras. Inom EU finns ett antal förslag som när de implementeras kommer att få stor inverkan på sjöfarten och dess utsläpp av växthusgaser. I Sverige finns bland annat miljödifferentierade farledsavgifter och ecobonus, men ytterligare kraftfulla styrmedel krävs för att nå de mål om minskning av växthusgasutsläpp som satts upp.

Det finns ett stort antal möjliga framtida hållbara marina bränslen som diskuteras t.ex. ammoniak, metan, metanol, vätgas och syntetisk diesel. I tillägg fortgår utvecklingen med ökad användning av eldrift.

Ett antal scenarier presenteras i rapporten för utvecklingen av bränslemix och utsläpp av växthusgaser för svensk sjöfart, med syftet att analysera olika tänkbara styrmedel. Resultaten visar att el- och gasdrift kan bidra till att minska ökningen av emissioner av växthusgaser, men att ytterligare åtgärder behövs för att åstadkomma en sänkning av emissionerna. I ett scenario analyseras effekterna av de styrmedel som föreslås inom EU:s ”Fit for 55”.

Det finns ett antal hinder som kan försena en utveckling mot ökad hållbarhet inom svensk sjöfart, både för eldrift och förnybara bränslen. Vidare diskuteras styrmedel som kan införas på nationell nivå. Här analyseras styrmedel för ökad användning av el, om en reduktionsplikt kan införas även för marina bränslen, en potentiell CO2-fond, investeringsstöd till ny teknik och bränsleinfrastruktur, klimatkrav på statens flotta, breddad ekobonus samt en vidareutveckling av miljödifferentierade farledsavgifter.

Considering the underachievement on modal shift and environmental objectives for freight transport, scholars and policy makers recurrently ask how more road freight can be shifted to rail and waterborne transport. The current study simulates transport and modal distribution effects for several scenarios in which modal shift policy measures are strengthened, expanded, combined, and harmonized across borders in the Nordics. Found transport effects were then used in an environmental model to assess implications for energy use and emissions of CO2,eq, NOx, and particulate matter, gaining insights into which policy measures are more effective or complement each other, and whether international harmonization might increase effectiveness, and modal shift. From our simulations, a Norwegian ecobonus scheme for rail yields larger modal shift away from road than a similar ecobonus for sea transport. Facilitating longer freight trains yields more modal shift but has high policy costs. Effects of harmonizing policies across Nordic countries vary but can be strengthened by combining different measures. However, even for scenarios with strong policy measures, reductions in CO2,eq emissions do not exceed 3.6% in 2030 while sometimes increasing local air pollution. Modal shift policy should therefore not exclusively be regarded as environmental strategy, although it may contribute to other policy objectives.

Emissions och spridningsberäkningar för emissioner från sjöfart

Införandet av Miljökvalitetsnormer (MKN) avseende luftföroreningar innebär delvis nya spelregler för industrin och för övriga samhället. För industrin innebär det att förutsättningarna i den aktuella regionen blir allt mer viktigt då det är de gemensamma utsläppen från alla aktiviteter som påverkar luftkvaliteten. För samhället innebär det att istället för att enbart reglera utsläpp skall medborgarna garanteras en viss kvalitet på bl a luft, i syfte att minskar risken för hälsoproblem. För att kunna garantera detta måste ansvariga myndigheter samverka betydligt mer effektivt än tidigare. Det är viktigt att studera effekterna av dessa förändringar i bägge sektorer. I denna rapport presenteras en utredning av hur införandet av MKN för luft påverkar näringslivet, specifikt två större företag i Göteborg. Skälet till att utredningen studerar utvecklingen i Göteborg är att där överskrids MKN för kvävedioxid och i områden där MKN antingen överskrids eller kan förväntas överskridas skall åtgärdsprogram upprättas. I sådana områden blir det då svårt att få tillstånd för ny eller utökad verksamhet om denna kan förväntas bidra till halterna av de aktuella föroreningarna. Detta innebär att en ny verksamhet kan stoppas även om utsläppen är mycket små. En speciell situation uppstår då trafik ofta är en viktig källa till luftföroreningar och eftersom de flesta verksamheter involverar transporter kan de sägas bidra till att MKN överskrids. Målen för denna studie var följande: Att genom två fallstudier utreda möjlighet till tillståndsprövning för ett företag utifrån ett systemperspektiv. Att diskutera och analysera miljötillstånd baserat på systemperspektiv, konsekvenser på lokal, regional och global nivå. Att inleda diskussion mellan samhälle och näringsliv rörande miljöbedömningar ur ett systemperspektiv. I två fallstudier har verksamheter vid AB Volvo och Göteborgs Hamn studerats i relation till MKN för luftföroreningar. I Volvos fall kan man konstatera att omfattande arbete med tillstånd har behövts i ett fall där utbyggnaden av en fabrik genererar ett ökat transportarbete som i sin tur bidrar till att MKN för NO2 överskrids. Bidraget från de aktuella transporterna visar sig dock vara mycket små. I fallet med hamnen så konstateras att det inte finns någon mekanism som gör att samhällets tillståndsprövning tar hänsyn till globala effekter. MKN med nuvarande utformning beaktar endast lokala förhållanden. Denna utformning är inte i linje med den övergripande Europeiska politik som, för att motverka de negativa effekterna av ständigt ökande vägtransporter, vill flytta över transporter av gods från väg till sjö och järnväg. För hamnar är en central och strategisk fråga huruvida miljöbelastningen, kopplad till en expanderande hamns verksamhet, minskar eller ökar. Oftast förknippas en hamns expansion med en negativ inverkan (netto) på miljön lokalt, men det är inte alls givet att miljöpåverkan är negativ vid en samlad bedömning. De beräkningar som gjorts på denna komplicerade problemställning i denna utredning visar att ur ett systemperspektiv har sjöfart lägre samhällskostnader, t ex vad gäller buller, än andra transportslag. Studien visar även i ett exempel att genom att använda Göteborgs Hamn som omlastningshamn för gods till Östersjöhamnar, som alternativ till Hamburg, kan utsläppen till luft för dessa transporter minska. Om sjöfarten dessutom utnyttjar de möjligheter som påvisas för att minska luftföroreningar är sjöfart i många fall det mest attraktiva transportalternativet. Det är viktigt att fortsätta diskutera och analysera miljötillstånd baserat på systemperspektiv, men det är också viktigt att identifiera var resultatet från dessa diskussioner skall presenteras. Systemet med MKN involverar olika myndighetsnivåer och det är fortfarande otydligt för många hur dessa nivåer samverkar. Normerna fastläggs i EU som även kontrollerar att staterna följer dem. Svenska staten stiftar motsvarande lagar men kan även besluta om skärpningar relativt EU-nivån i de fall direktivet är ett minimidirektiv. Regeringen avgör ifall åtgärdsprogram ska tas fram. Förslag till åtgärdsprogram utarbetas av regeringen eller den eller de myndigheter eller kommuner som regeringen bestämmer. Ansvaret för genomförandet av åtgärdsprogrammet ligger på myndigheter och kommuner. I praktiken utformas och genomförs åtgärdsprogram på kommun eller länsnivå vilken också behandlar miljötillstånd. Utredningens resultat pekar på att det kommer ta tid innan det finns erfarenhet av samarbete mellan dessa nivåer. Utredningen föreslår att samhället dock bör fortsätta att förtydliga hur strukturen ser ut för att underlätta arbetet för näringslivet. Under projektets tid har IVL bidragit till en ökad diskussion mellan samhälle och näringsliv rörande miljöbedömningar ur ett systemperspektiv. Det har varit ett flertal lyckade arbetsmöten kring utredningen och utöver det har IVL medverkat vid hearingar och seminarier arrangerade av samhälle och näringsliv. Vid dessa arrangemang har IVL presenterat frågeställning och bakgrund till utredningen vilket bidragit till en fördjupad insikt bland nya aktörer

Införandet av Miljökvalitetsnormer (MKN) avseende luftföroreningar innebär delvis nya spelregler för industrin och för övriga samhället. För industrin innebär det att förutsättningarna i den aktuella regionen blir allt mer viktigt då det är de gemensamma utsläppen från alla aktiviteter som påverkar luftkvaliteten. För samhället innebär det att istället för att enbart reglera utsläpp skall medborgarna garanteras en viss kvalitet på bl a luft, i syfte att minskar risken för hälsoproblem. För att kunna garantera detta måste ansvariga myndigheter samverka betydligt mer effektivt än tidigare. Det är viktigt att studera effekterna av dessa förändringar i bägge sektorer. I denna rapport presenteras en utredning av hur införandet av MKN för luft påverkar näringslivet, specifikt två större företag i Göteborg. Skälet till att utredningen studerar utvecklingen i Göteborg är att där överskrids MKN för kvävedioxid och i områden där MKN antingen överskrids eller kan förväntas överskridas skall åtgärdsprogram upprättas. I sådana områden blir det då svårt att få tillstånd för ny eller utökad verksamhet om denna kan förväntas bidra till halterna av de aktuella föroreningarna. Detta innebär att en ny verksamhet kan stoppas även om utsläppen är mycket små. En speciell situation uppstår då trafik ofta är en viktig källa till luftföroreningar och eftersom de flesta verksamheter involverar transporter kan de sägas bidra till att MKN överskrids. Målen för denna studie var följande: Att genom två fallstudier utreda möjlighet till tillståndsprövning för ett företag utifrån ett systemperspektiv. Att diskutera och analysera miljötillstånd baserat på systemperspektiv, konsekvenser på lokal, regional och global nivå. Att inleda diskussion mellan samhälle och näringsliv rörande miljöbedömningar ur ett systemperspektiv. I två fallstudier har verksamheter vid AB Volvo och Göteborgs Hamn studerats i relation till MKN för luftföroreningar. I Volvos fall kan man konstatera att omfattande arbete med tillstånd har behövts i ett fall där utbyggnaden av en fabrik genererar ett ökat transportarbete som i sin tur bidrar till att MKN för NO2 överskrids. Bidraget från de aktuella transporterna visar sig dock vara mycket små. I fallet med hamnen så konstateras att det inte finns någon mekanism som gör att samhällets tillståndsprövning tar hänsyn till globala effekter. MKN med nuvarande utformning beaktar endast lokala förhållanden. Denna utformning är inte i linje med den övergripande Europeiska politik som, för att motverka de negativa effekterna av ständigt ökande vägtransporter, vill flytta över transporter av gods från väg till sjö och järnväg. För hamnar är en central och strategisk fråga huruvida miljöbelastningen, kopplad till en expanderande hamns verksamhet, minskar eller ökar. Oftast förknippas en hamns expansion med en negativ inverkan (netto) på miljön lokalt, men det är inte alls givet att miljöpåverkan är negativ vid en samlad bedömning. De beräkningar som gjorts på denna komplicerade problemställning i denna utredning visar att ur ett systemperspektiv har sjöfart lägre samhällskostnader, t ex vad gäller buller, än andra transportslag. Studien visar även i ett exempel att genom att använda Göteborgs Hamn som omlastningshamn för gods till Östersjöhamnar, som alternativ till Hamburg, kan utsläppen till luft för dessa transporter minska. Om sjöfarten dessutom utnyttjar de möjligheter som påvisas för att minska luftföroreningar är sjöfart i många fall det mest attraktiva transportalternativet. Det är viktigt att fortsätta diskutera och analysera miljötillstånd baserat på systemperspektiv, men det är också viktigt att identifiera var resultatet från dessa diskussioner skall presenteras. Systemet med MKN involverar olika myndighetsnivåer och det är fortfarande otydligt för många hur dessa nivåer samverkar. Normerna fastläggs i EU som även kontrollerar att staterna följer dem. Svenska staten stiftar motsvarande lagar men kan även besluta om skärpningar relativt EU-nivån i de fall direktivet är ett minimidirektiv. Regeringen avgör ifall åtgärdsprogram ska tas fram. Förslag till åtgärdsprogram utarbetas av regeringen eller den eller de myndigheter eller kommuner som regeringen bestämmer. Ansvaret för genomförandet av åtgärdsprogrammet ligger på myndigheter och kommuner. I praktiken utformas och genomförs åtgärdsprogram på kommun eller länsnivå vilken också behandlar miljötillstånd. Utredningens resultat pekar på att det kommer ta tid innan det finns erfarenhet av samarbete mellan dessa nivåer. Utredningen föreslår att samhället dock bör fortsätta att förtydliga hur strukturen ser ut för att underlätta arbetet för näringslivet. Under projektets tid har IVL bidragit till en ökad diskussion mellan samhälle och näringsliv rörande miljöbedömningar ur ett systemperspektiv. Det har varit ett flertal lyckade arbetsmöten kring utredningen och utöver det har IVL medverkat vid hearingar och seminarier arrangerade av samhälle och näringsliv. Vid dessa arrangemang har IVL presenterat frågeställning och bakgrund till utredningen vilket bidragit till en fördjupad insikt bland nya aktörer

Emissions of exhaust gases and particulate matter from a dual fuel marine engine using methanol as fuel with marine gasoil as pilot fuel have been examined for a ferry during operation. The emission factor for nitrogen oxides is lower than what is typically found for marine gasoil but does not reach the tier III limit. The emissions of particulate matter are significantly lower than for fuel oils and similar to what is found for LNG engines. The main part of the particles can be found in the ultrafine range with the peak being at around 18 nm. About 93% of the particles are evaporated and absorbed when using a thermodenuder, and thus a large majority of the particles are volatile. Methanol is a potential future marine fuel that will reduce emissions of air pollutants and can be made as a biofuel to meet emission targets for greenhouse gases.

Emissions of exhaust gases and particulate matter from a dual fuel marine engine using methanol as fuel with marine gasoil as pilot fuel have been examined for a ferry during operation.

The emission factor for nitrogen oxides is lower than what is typically found for marine gasoil but does not reach the tier III limit. The emissions of particulate matter are significantly lower than for fuel oils and similar to what is found for LNG engines.

The main part of the particles can be found in the ultrafine range with the peak being at around 18 nm. About 93% of the particles are evaporated and absorbed when using a thermodenuder, and thus a large majority of the particles are volatile. Methanol is a potential future marine fuel that will reduce emissions of air pollutants and can be made as a biofuel to meet emission targets for greenhouse gases.

Demands on reporting and communication of the sustainability performance within a company as well as externally and how the demands on continuous improvement are fulfilled, has led to a development and also standardisation of sustainability indicators and indices. In shipping, like in all sectors, numerous indices or reporting systems have been developed and are used for various purposes. The present report is a pre-study with a review on existing indices in the shipping sector, and an outlook to other areas, followed by a discussion on possible development paths of more comprehensive sustainability indices.

Den här rapporten finns endast på engelska. Svensk sammanfattning finns i rapporten.

EU has decided on a system for Monitoring, Reporting and Verifying (MRV) emissions of carbon dioxide from ships in Europe starting 1st of January 2018. This means that ship-owners must develop systems for reporting and that a potential data source for assessing emissions and fuel consumption for ships will emerge. This report demonstrates the methods for preparing the data for reporting, looks at uncertainties and drawbacks and discusses the potential use of the data.

Drawbacks identified with MRV, are that other green-house gases, such as methane, not are included, and that upstream emissions, from fuel production and fuel transportation, also are excluded. Further, the reporting procedures for biogenic CO2 are still unclear.

However, when large amounts of data are made public in the summer of 2019 there will be an opportunity to improve benchmarking and emission calculations, especially related to transport work, which is important for increasing accuracy of emission inventory studies and cost-benefits studies of shipping.

A number of techniques to measure the concentration of ammonia in exhaust gas have been evaluated. The objective is to obtain reliable methods for measuring ammonia slip from ships equipped with SCR systems for cleaning of nitrogen oxide emissions. The methods tested are FTIR, laser absorption, a wet chemical method and a method where ammonia is oxidised into NOX over a catalyst. The laser method is an in-situ technique, where the transmitter and receiver are positioned on opposite flanges at the exhaust channel, while the other methods are ex-situ, i. e., a probe volume of gas is taken from the exhaust channel into the instrumentation. The laser method worked well in the field studies and gave results with high sensitivity and good time resolution. FTIR did not work well for low concentrations. The time resolution is good but with a delay. In cases with an uneven distribution of ammonia throughout the exhaust channel, the concentration will vary depending on the location of the probe. A strong influence of the oxygen concentration on the observed ammonia concentration was found in the laboratory study. The wet chemical method gave reliable results. The time resolution is poor and the method is sensitive to uneven distribution in the exhaust channel. The method with the oxidation catalyst worked well in the lab but not in field where the catalyst was deactivated, probably by sulphur. Ett antal tekniker för att mäta ammoniakkoncentration i rökgaser har utvärderats. Syftet är att finna tillförlitliga metoder att analysera ammoniakslip från fartyg utrustade med SCR-utrustning för kväveoxidrening. Tester har gjorts ombord två fartyg samt i laboratoriemiljö. De testade metoderna är FTIR, laserabsorption, våtkemisk metod samt en metod, där ammoniak oxideras till NOX över en katalysator. Lasermetoden är en in-situ metod, där sändare och mottagare placeras på flänsar på ömse sidor på avgaskanalen, emedan de övriga metoderna är ex-situ, dvs bygger på att en viss gasmängd sugs ut ur avgaskanalen till instrumenteringen. I fältstudierna fungerade lasermetoden bra och gav resultat med hög känslighet och bra tidsupplösning. FTIR fungerade ej bra för låga koncentrationer. Tidsupplösningen är bra men med en viss fördröjning. Vid stråkbildning fås varierande koncentration beroende på var sonden är placerad i rökgaskanalen. Vid laboratoriestudierna observerades ett stort inflytande av syre på den uppmätta ammoniakkoncentrationen. Den våtkemiska metoden gav tillförlitliga resultat. Tidsupplösningen är mycket dålig och metoden är känslig för stråkbildning. Katalysatormetoden fungerade i laboratoriet men inte i fält då katalysatorn deaktiverades, troligen av svavel i rökgasen.

Shipping is an activity responsible for a range of different pressures affecting the marine environment, air quality and human welfare. The methodology on how ship emissions impact air quality and human health are comparatively well established and used in cost-benefit analysis of policy proposals. However, the knowledge base is not the same for impacts on the marine environment and a coherent environmental and socio-economic impact assessment of shipping has not yet been made. This risk policies to be biased towards air pollution whilst trading off impacts on the marine environment. The aim of the current study was to develop a comprehensive framework on how different pressures from shipping degrade marine ecosystems, air quality and human welfare. A secondary aim was to quantify the societal damage costs of shipping due to the degradation of human welfare in a Baltic Sea case study. By adding knowledge from marine ecotoxicology and life-cycle analysis to the existing knowledge from climate, air pollution and environmental economics we were able to establish a more comprehensive conceptual framework that allows for valuation of environmental impacts from shipping, but it still omits economic values for biological pollution, littering and underwater noise. The results for the Baltic Sea case showed the total annual damage costs of Baltic Sea shipping to be 2.9 billion €2010 (95% CI 2.0–3.9 billion €2010). The damage costs due to impacts on marine eutrophication (768 million €2010) and marine ecotoxicity (582 million €2010) were in the same range as the total damage costs associated with reduced air quality (816 million €2010) and climate change (737 million €2010). The framework and the results from the current study can be used in future socio-economic assessments of ship emissions to prioritize cost efficient measures. The framework can be used globally but the damage costs presented on the marine environment are restricted to emissions on the Baltic Sea and Kattegat region as they are based on willingness to pay studies conducted on citizens around the Baltic Sea where eutrophication and emissions of chemicals are particularly threats to the state of the Baltic Sea.

This report is an attempt to investigate the background to the high NO2 levels in Gothenburg and the reason for the slowing decrease in NO2 observed during the last years. Two possible reasons for these observations are investigated: contribution from shipping to NO2 emissions, and increased fraction of NO2 in the NOX emissions from modern diesel engines. The issue was studied through emission measurement, passive sampling, dispersion modelling and atmospheric chemistry studies Two possible reasons for the high NO2 levels in Gothenburg were investigated: 1) increased fraction of NO2 in the NOX emissions from modern diesel engines, and 2) increasing total emission of NOX due to increasing contribution from shipping. The results also showed that local mixing conditions greatly influenced the dispersion of especially local and ground-based emissions This was mainly due to their main location within the Göta älv valleys where the dispersion becomes particularly poor during high pressure conditions. The effect of ship emissions in the Gothenburg area was very dominant along the harbour. At distances of about 1-2 km fromthe harbour area the ship contribution was still more than 30 % of the total NOX concentration level. The modelled concentration data was compared to measurement results from passive sampling performed mainly along the river but also with the continuous monitoring at the Femman site. In general, the NO2 concentrations were underestimated, the SO2 mainly coincided well and the O3 concentrations where somewhat overestimated in the calculations with the TAPM model. Variation in concentrations due to varying weather conditions were reproduced well but the modelled peaks are sometimes lower than the monitored concentration peaks. There are several explanations for the increased proportions of NO2 in the primary emissions of NOX. First the increase in the fraction of diesel vehicles by ca. 15% (as vehicle-km) during the last decade. Diesel vehicles generally have a higher fraction of NO2 in their NOX emissions than gasoline cars. On top of this, the large increase of diesel vehicles over the last decade was accompanied by a simultaneous increase of the NO2 fraction in NOX emissions from diesel trucks with Euro3 and Euro4 standards which became compulsory in 2000 and 2005, respectively. Measurements of NO2 and NOX concentrations in tunnels, and at sites largely dominated by primary emissions, indicated an increase in the NO2/NOX partitioning from 4-6% in the 1980s, and at the beginning of the 1990s, to today's 13%. The tunnel-model study indicated that the actual NO2/NOX fraction could be even larger if effects of the NO2 sinks in the tunnel are taken into account. The modelling results show that the increase in the NO2 share of the NO2 concentrations was greatest close to the sources since the NO in the primary emission reacted with ambient ozone forming NO2 on a time-scale of minutes and the NO2/NOX ratio quickly increased, approaching a photo-stationary state between NO, NO2 and ozone. The simultaneous measurements of NO2, NO (or NOX) and ozone indicated that the fraction of primary and secondary NO2 in the city varied largely depending on mixing and photochemical conditions. A sensitivity study with the city scale dispersion model was performed by raising the NO2/NOX emission ratio from 5 to 20%. The change in NO2 concentrations showed that the effect of the higher share of NO2 within the NOx emissions can affect the NO2 concentration level close to the source up to a distance of about 500-700m. The chemical development in ship plumes was studied with a detailed photochemical plume model to ensure that the simple chemistry treatment of the TAPM model accurately described the processes affecting the NO/NO2 distribution and NOX oxidation. Comparison of the detailed chemistry with the simplified version showed a significant similarity during day hours when chemistry is, to a large extent, driven by NO2 photolysis. The night-time chemistry of NOX, driven by nitrate radical and oxidation of N2O5 is not included in the TAPM chemical scheme which may lead to an underestimation of NOX oxidation during dark hours.

The Nordic countries aim for a carbon-neutral Nordic region. Maritime transport is one of the key remaining sectors to decarbonize and is important from a Nordic perspective due to the relatively large Nordic involvement in this industry. The HOPE project addresses how regional shipping in the Nordic region can do the transition to become fossil-free. The project aims at clarifying the potential role of hydrogen based marine solutions in reducing the Nordic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the centre of the project is a ship concept where a typical RoPax-vessel with operating distances of around 100 nautical miles is designed for including operation with hydrogen as fuel and fuel cells for energy conversion. The overall design of the concept ship is compared with selected other fuel alternatives from a cost perspective. 

Further, both the conditions for designing such a ship and the consequences are studied. The conditions include technical design and costs of fuel systems and handling, powertrains etc. but also an analysis of barriers and drivers for the realisation of hydrogen solutions for shipping, such as economic, legal, and policy issues. For example, in terms of drivers, policy options needed to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen based marine solutions are assessed. Strategies and the potential of producing these fuels in the Nordic region are also reviewed from a shipping perspective. A realistic potential for uptake of these technologies/fuels by Nordic shipping are assessed and the benefits regarding lower emissions of GHGs and air pollutants are estimated. This report summarizes the assessments made in the HOPE project including main findings. 

To reduce the climate impact of shipping the introduction of alternative fuels is required. There is a range of different marine fuel options but ammonia, a potential zero carbon fuel, has recently received a lot of attention. The purpose of this paper is to assess the prospects for ammonia as a future fuel for the shipping sector in relation to other marine fuels. The assessment is based on a synthesis of knowledge in combination with (i) energy systems modelling including the cost-effectiveness of ammonia as marine fuel in relation to other fuels for reaching global climate targets and (ii) a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach ranking marine fuel options while considering estimated fuel performance and the importance of criteria based on maritime stakeholder preferences. In the long-term and to reach global GHG reduction, the energy systems modelling indicate that the use of hydrogen represent a more cost-effective marine fuel option than ammonia. However, in the MCDA covering more aspects we find that ammonia may be almost as interesting for shipping related stakeholders as hydrogen and various biomass-based fuels. Ammonia may to some extent be an interesting future marine fuel option, but many issues remains to be solved before large-scale introduction.

In order to identify vehicles and traffic situations that have a negative impact on the environment, it is important to be able to measure emissions from individual vehicles in traffic. In this study an attempt is made to measure gases, particles and noise emitted from single vehicles in normal traffic. An apparatus for Fuel Efficiency Automobile Test (FEAT), by which emissions of NO, CO, HC and CO2 are measured, was combined with particle instruments for both total and size-distribution measurements, as well as noise measurements. The sampling of particles was done utilising a tube system for sampling on the road together with a dilution system. The noise measurements were done with two microphones at different heights. The measurements show that it is feasible to study regulated emissions, particle emissions and noise emissions from individual vehicles in normal traffic. Noise data was collected from ca 200 individual vehicles during the measurement campaign and the emissions of some of the vehicles were evaluated. The measurements were manually supervised and the evaluations mainly made by hand. The experiences of this project are encouraging and show that it is possible to perform measurements of noise emissions from individual vehicles automatically. One way to achieve this would be by extending the FEAT system so that it also measures noise emission. Further it is important to perform sampling and evaluation automatically and to use computerized procedures for the evaluation. By using CO2 data together with the particle data, we were able to obtain PM emission factors for individual vehicles. We also showed that the particle size-distribution can be obtained from individual vehicles in traffic when using a fast instrument. This also, in principle, allows for the separation of particles emitted from the engine and particles from road and tyre wear. The results show that the emissions of particles vary significantly from vehicle to vehicle. A variation range of two orders of magnitude (between 8.5 x 1011 and 1.2 x 1014 part km 1 veh 1) has been observed. The FEAT systems together with a system for speed and acceleration monitoring, were able to record how the emissions of NO, HC, CO and CO2 depend on speed and acceleration. A general conclusion is that after some further improvement the setup should suitable for more systematic mapping of vehicle tailpipe and noise emissions. Further, the system may be used for identifying individual vehicles that can be considered large emitters

This report includes a ship concept design developed for a RoPax ship (a ferry transporting passengers and goods) with hydrogen fuel cell propulsion for intended operations on the route Frederikshavn (Denmark) to Gothenburg (Sweden). The assessments, performed within the HOPE (Hydrogen fuel cells solutions in shipping in relation to other low carbon options – a Nordic perspective) project, shows that it is technically feasible to build and operate such a ship with existing technology for the studied route between these two Nordic countries. Also, the costs of such a concept are assessed and compared to other fuel options including: battery-electric propulsion, electro-ammonia, electro-methanol, biomass-based methane, or fossil liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as conventional fossil marine gas oil (MGO).

The overall result from the comparative analysis of the estimated costs is that the hydrogen fuel cell ship, when assuming current or near future costs for the technology and the hydrogen, is estimated to be some 25 percent more expensive than a conventional fossil fuelled (MGO) RoPax ship (when including costs for emissions in the EU emission trading scheme). However, the cost developments are uncertain. In the case that fuel cell prices, and hydrogen prices, are decreasing, and todays cost levels of emission allowances in the EU emission trading scheme (ETS) increase, the hydrogen fuel cell ship could possibly be operated at lower total costs compared to the MGO fuelled ship.

A cost benefit analysis was also performed, comparing costs linked to the technical implementation of hydrogen fuel cell solutions in shipping (with a private and social perspective) to benefits in terms of reduced external costs linked to lower emissions and potential subsides. The cost benefit assessment also confirms that the investment from a private perspective is not cost effective and that additional subsidies may be needed for investments in fuel cell hydrogen technology to take place. The cost effectiveness from a social perspective is strongly dependent on values of highly uncertain parameters.

The impacts of emissions of hydrogen as fuel in a Nordic context were assessed for deployment scenarios for hydrogen and fuel cell solutions in Nordic shipping. There is a considerable potential for emission reductions both in terms of CO2, nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and particulate matter (PM) linked to the implementation of hydrogen and fuel cells in Nordic shipping, particularly in the RoPax segment, representing 30% of total CO2 emissions in 2018. Considering the relatively long lifetime of vessels, investments must be made soon to enable a hydrogen powered shipping fleet in the near future. Since it is currently not economically viable with hydrogen and fuel cells vessels there is need for subsidies and investments in pilots to develop solutions and speed up the process. 

In response to stricter regulations on ship air emissions, many shipowners have installed exhaust gas cleaning systems, known as scrubbers, allowing for use of cheap residual heavy fuel oil. Scrubbers produce large volumes of acidic and polluted water that is discharged to the sea. Due to environmental concerns, the use of scrubbers is being discussed within the International Maritime Organization. Real-world simulations of global scrubber-vessel activity, applying actual fuel costs and expenses related to scrubber operations, show that 51% of the global scrubber-fitted fleet reached economic break even by the end of 2022, with a surplus of €4.7 billion in 2019 euros. Within five years after installation, more than 95% of the ships with the most common scrubber systems reach break even. However, the marine ecotoxicity damage cost, from scrubber water discharge in the Baltic Sea Area 2014–2022, amounts to >€680 million in 2019 euros, showing that private economic interests come at the expense of marine environmental damage.

The climate impact caused by the shipping industry has increased over the past decades despite attempts toimprove the energy efficiency of vessels and lower induced emissions. A tool in reducing climate and otherenvironmental impacts is new low emissions propulsion technologies. These new technologies need toreduce harmful emissions not only in the tailpipe but also over the entire life cycle. This study uses lifecycle assessment to investigate the life cycle environmental impact of a propulsion concept currentlyunder development: the HyMethShip concept. The HyMethShip concept combines electro-methanolenergy storage, an onboard pre-combustion carbon capture system, and a dual fuel internal combustionengine. The concept aims for an almost closed CO2 loop by installing CO2 capture onboard.

The CO2 isunloaded in port and converted into electro-methanol which is used to fuel the ship again. This is madepossible by a pre-combustion process converting electro-methanol to hydrogen and CO2. Theassessment is conducted from well-to-propeller and focuses on ship operation in the North Sea in 2030.The results indicate that this technology could be an alternative to reduce the climate impact fromshipping.

The results show a lower impact on acidification, climate change, marine eutrophication,particulate matter, photochemical ozone formation, and terrestrial eutrophication compared to internalcombustion engines run on either marine gas oil (0.1% sulphur content), biogenic methanol, fossilmethanol, or electro-methanol. Electricity with low climate and environmental impact is likely requiredto achieve this, and low NOx emissions from combustion processes need to be maintained. A potentialtrade-off is higher toxicity impacts from the HyMethShip concept compared to most other options, dueto metal needs in wind power plants.

The aim of the project is to assess the overall design and consequences of including maritime transports in the EU ETS. An inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS would likely be built upon the data and scope of the current monitoring, reporting and verification system, which is covering the legs of a ship’s route before and after a port call to one of EEA’s states. The CO2 emissions captured by MRV was 141 Mtonnes in 2018, estimated to grow to approximately 178 Mtonnes by 2026 if no abatement measures are taken. Alternatively, only including emissions from intra-EEA shipping would limit the emission scope, estimated to reach approximately 75 Mtonnes in 2026.

The costs for the shipping sector will be determined mainly by 1) the price of allowances and 2) if allowances are given for free or if they are auctioned. Based on our assumptions of 5 to 100 % of allowance auctioned, and a price of 25-70 EUR/tonne CO2 gives an estimated additional cost to the included shipping of 0.2 – 12.5 billion EUR. To set these cost increases into a context, it generates a price increase of between 0.6% and 33% per tonne marine gas oil.

Shipping is an important source of air pollutants, from the global to the local scale. Ships emit substantial amounts of sulfur dioxides, nitrogen dioxides, and particulate matter in the vicinity of coasts, threatening the health of the coastal population, especially in harbour cities. Reductions in emissions due to shipping have been targeted by several regulations. Nevertheless, effects of these regulations come into force with temporal delays, global ship traffic is expected to grow in the future, and other land-based anthropogenic emissions might decrease. Thus, it is necessary to investigate combined impacts to identify the impact of shipping activities on air quality, population exposure, and health effects in the future. We investigated the future effect of shipping emissions on air quality and related health effects considering different scenarios of the development of shipping under current regional trends of economic growth and already decided regulations in the Gothenburg urban area in 2040. Additionally, we investigated the impact of a large-scale implementation of shore electricity in the Port of Gothenburg. For this purpose, we established a one-way nested chemistry transport modelling (CTM) system from the global to the urban scale, to calculate pollutant concentrations, population-weighted concentrations, and health effects related to NO2, PM2.5, and O3. The simulated concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 in future scenarios for the year 2040 are in general very low with up to 4 ppb for NO2 and up to 3.5 µg m−3 PM2.5 in the urban areas which are not close to the port area. From 2012 the simulated overall exposure to PM2.5 decreased by approximately 30 % in simulated future scenarios; for NO2 the decrease was over 60 %. The simulated concentrations of O3 increased from the year 2012 to 2040 by about 20 %. In general, the contributions of local shipping emissions in 2040 focus on the harbour area but to some extent also influence the rest of the city domain. The simulated impact of onshore electricity implementation for shipping in 2040 shows reductions for NO2 in the port of up to 30 %, while increasing O3 of up to 3 %. Implementation of onshore electricity for ships at berth leads to additional local reduction potentials of up to 3 % for PM2.5 and 12 % for SO2 in the port area. All future scenarios show substantial decreases in population-weighted exposure and health-effect impacts.

Facing the problems with global warming and the diminishing supplies of oil, alternative fuels are becoming more and more important for road traffic. Several alternative fuels are being tested such as biogas, alcohols and dimethyl ether (DME).

The study includes the following fuels: replacement of petrol with diesel for light duty vehicles (LDV); natural gas for LDVs; natural gas for heavy duty vehicles (HDV); ethanol for HDVs; biodiesel for HDVs; dimethyl ether (DME) for HDVs. The analysis and modelling are done in four steps: 1) Creating an emission model. This is done for Europe and in more detail for Västra Götaland. 2) Dispersion modelling using EMEP (the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) for Europe and TAPM (The Air Pollution Model) for the Västra Götaland Region. 3) Calculation of population exposure to different air pollutants in the Västra Götaland Region and 4) health risk assessments.

The emission scenarios for 2020 are constructed for all listed fuels and dispersion modelling is applied to some of them to obtain the human exposure to key air pollutants in the region. The dispersion modelling is performed with the EMEP model for extended Europe and the data obtained are used as boundary conditions for the model for the Västra Götaland region. In the latter, detailed traffic and emissions scenarios are used together with the TAPM model to obtain concentration levels and population exposure. The differences in health impacts are then assessed.

The background is the decision to establish a NOX Emission Control Area (NECA) in the region requiring ships to follow Tier III NOX emission regulations from 2021. To achieve further and more rapid reductions of NOX emissions than what is expected from the NECA, additional policy instruments have been discussed. The policy instruments analysed in this study are assumed to be additional to the NECA requirements. Our study describes changes of emissions and costs for existing ships with Tier II engines when upgrading for lower NOX emissions. Of the many existing technological alternatives to accomplish NOX reduction, this study focuses on liquefied natural gas (LNG) engines and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) for after treatment of exhaust gas. Emissions of NOX in 2030 are modeled for scenarios in which different policy instruments are assumed. The use of LNG and abatement equipment is modeled with the assumption that ship-owners choose the most advantageous option from a cost perspective.

The most effective policy instrument found in this study is the refundable emission payment (REP) scheme. The reduction of emissions depends on the fee and subsidy rate applied. For example, a subsidy rate of 60% and a fee of 1 €/kg NOX is modelled to reduce the yearly emissions of NOX from shipping in the Baltic Sea in 2030 by about 53 ktonnes. A NOX tax will also have a significant effect on the NOX emissions, but in this case the costs for ship-owners are significantly higher. Applying a CO2 tax or environmentally differentiated port dues in the model are found to have less impact on the NOX emissions. Introducing slow steaming has a potential to reduce NOX emissions In another scenario the effects on emissions from a financial investments support for abatement technology or LNG engines are modeled. At an interest rate of 0 % emissions are reduced significantly.

According to our model, an extended NECA, where also other sea areas than the Baltic and North Seas become NECAs, has no further impact on the NOX emissions in the Baltic Sea. However, since the abatement equipment is used for more hours in a global NECA it will reduce the abatement cost per kg NOX.

Sweden has adopted environmental discounts for ships arriving at fairways and in some ports to encourage investment in measures to reduce shipping’s impact on climate change, air quality and marine environment. The present study investigates the impact of these discounts in 2020 on investment decisions made by ship-owners. As a starting point, this impact was assessed by comparing the potential annual benefits of the discounts with the annualized costs of retrofitting four selected abatement technologies.

The results indicate that, while the port discounts are relatively small when compared to the costs of abatement, the fairway discounts could be significant for ships frequently calling at Swedish ports under specific conditions. However, we conclude that the discounts alone are insufficient to incentivize ship-owners to invest in abatement technologies for older ships. To improve the usefulness of these discounts, the design should incorporate a more precise internalization of abatement costs. This could be achieved by implementing individual discounts for different abatement strategies, establishing dedicated subsidies for high-cost innovative technologies, enhancing scoring systems, and by better matching the discount with other market-based policies internationally.

The transport of both goods and passengers are important parts of our society. Several different modes of transport are available, such as rail, sea, air, and road transports. These transport modes have different properties and transport performance. For example, the different modes have different accessibility and distribution range, different energy use, different environmental performance and different transport speed and time. Transport is a very big business worldwide. This makes it important to ensure that the transport systems work optimally and that correct mode of transport is used for the right purpose. This requires knowledge of the properties for the various modes of transport and their real performance and a strategic transport planning in the community and among the different market participants.

A transport needs not only a transport carrier transporting goods from one place to another but also a transport infrastructure. Thus, a transport should be viewed from a system perspective where all the system's various parts are taken into account. This means, for example, that roads, railways, airports and ports, etc. should be included in the assessment models. This study covers a system analysis of different port infrastructures using a Life Cycle Assessment methodology (LCA).

There is an increase in installations of exhaust gas scrubbers on ships following international regulations on sulphur content in marine fuel from 2020. We have conducted emission measurements on a four-stroke marine engine using low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) at different steady state engine loads. For the HFO the exhaust was probed upstream and downstream of an exhaust gas scrubber. While sulphur dioxide was removed with high efficiency in the scrubber, the measurements of particle emissions indicate lower emissions at the use of LSFO than downstream of the scrubber. The scrubber removes between 32% and 43% of the particle mass from the exhaust at the HFO tests upstream and downstream of the scrubber, but levels equivalent to those in LSFO exhaust are not reached. Decreases in the emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH-16) and particulate matter as black carbon, organic carbon and elemental carbon, over the scrubber were observed for a majority of the trials, although emissions at LSFO use were consistently lower at comparable engine power.

An SO2 scrubber is fitted in the exhaust channel in order to reduce SO2 emissions to levels corresponding to the combustion of 0.1% sulphur fuel or lower, as described by the MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14 on sulphur content in marine fuels used for operations in a SECA.

This report covers two emission measurement campaigns. One set of trials contains benchmark measurements for emissions from operations on low sulphur fuel oil. The second set of trials is conducted after the fitting of an exhaust gas cleaning system on the ship. We compare emissions from LSFO combustion with HFO combustion downstream a scrubber. Both are alternatives that can be used to comply with the existing regulations in the area. We also analyse emission reductions over the scrubber, as measurements were conducted both upstream and downstream the installation.

Our results show that the emissions of sulphur dioxide to air are lower when using high sulphur fuel together with a closed loop scrubber than when a low sulphur fuel oil is used. However, the study also concludes that other important air emissions, apart from sulphur dioxide, are at higher levels than emissions from a low sulphur fuel.

Well-maintained fairway channels are necessities for a functioning marine transport system. In this report environmental aspects of construction and operation of fairway channels are described and analysed. Life cycle inventory data on energy use during dredging, maintenance of navigational aids, pilotage and ice breaking are presented. Impacts on the marine environment have not been included in the study. All data have been acquired from the Swedish Maritime Administration and the Port of Gothenburg.

The study is part of a greater project covering environmental life cycle aspects of a larger part of the transport infrastructure system, including ports. The data have therefore been modelled to fit in a life cycle assessment model, developed for the same project.

The aim is to present generic data for Swedish fairway channels. However, port specifics can cause large variations in the need for the fairway channel maintenance, piloting and ice breaking. Care should be taken before applying and using the presented data in a wider context. All the activities described in this report are for this reason accompanied with a brief recommendation on further use. For use in LCA models with wider scopes, it is recommended that impacts from pilotage and ice breaking are related to models on ship operations, and that dredging, and maintenance of navigational aids are related to models on ports. A summary of the most important emissions to air from fairway activities are presented in the Table below. The results for Sweden are summarised both as a total including all activities in the inventory, and with pilotage and ice breaking subtracted. The latter values are intended for further use in LCA models on ports.

The results show that the main contributing activity to energy use and CO2 emissions from a national perspective is dredging. For a single port, other activities may have greater influence. In the case study of Gothenburg, pilots contributed the most to CO2 emission. However, the impacts from infrastructure activities in the fairway channel are minor in relation to the impacts from a transport chain as a whole.

The model used in Sweden for modelling fuel consumption and emissions from non-road machines has within this project been updated in following ways: several types of alternative fuels have been included, machines with an installed engine power above 560 kW have been added, load factors have been updated for some machine types, an algorithm that calculates the effect of the engine load factor on fuel consumption has been added, emission factors of machines that meets the Stage V emission standard have been added. In addition there were also a few more minor updates.

The objective of this study is to provide estimates of emissions from the liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuelled ships related to Sweden, and to outline benefits for society through reduced external costs of air pollutants and greenhouse gases from fuel shift from marine gasoil (MGO) to LNG. The total societal benefits from the Sweden-related LNG fleet in 2017 are estimated at 17.4 million €2010. This estimate includes reduced health and climate impacts and reduced crop damage.

The largest contributor to the benefits is positive impact of emission reductions on population health. Lower emissions of primary particles (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) from LNG vessels, compared to a reference fleet running on MGO, result in lower concentrations of primary and secondary PM2.5 and ground-level ozone, and subsequently reduced premature mortality. Differences in emissions of main air pollutants between the analysed LNG fleet of 12 ships and a reference MGO fleet in 2017 are calculated to 100 tonnes of SO2, 160 tonnes of PM2.5 and 3 200 tonnes of NOx. The reduced NOX emissions correspond to the emissions from 24 300 average heavy duty trucks with an average mileage on the Swedish roads during the same year. Emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2 equivalents) are modelled to be similar for the LNG fleet and the MGO fuelled reference fleet: emissions of CO2 equivalents from the MGO fleet are estimated to be 6 ktonnes higher in 2017.

Estimated emissions for 2022 are calculated assuming that present and already ordered LNG ships run mainly on LNG. The difference in emissions between these ships and reference ships fuelled with MGO is then significantly larger and constitutes 385 tonnes of SO2, 540 tonnes of PM2.5 and 11 200 tonnes of NOx. Emissions of greenhouse gases in 2022 are estimated at 640 ktonnes CO2 equivalents for the LNG fleet and 660 ktonnes CO2 equivalents for the MGO fleet.

Emissions of air pollutants from shipping (NOx, SOx, and PM2.5) make a significant contribution to the total emissions in Europe and world-wide. According to the analysis by Brandt et al. (2013), shipping emissions cause about 50 thousand premature deaths per year in Europe. Significant share of the sulphur and nitrogen deposition that causes acidification and eutrophication emanates from ship emissions. NOx emissions contribute to formation of secondary particles and ozone, resulting in increased number of respiratory and cardio-vascular diseases among the population, especially in coastal states.

NOx emissions from anthropogenic sources reported by the 28 member countries of the European Union to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) amounted to ∼7820 ktonnes in 2014 (CEIP, 2017) whereas emissions from international shipping in the European seas for the same year are estimated at 3186 ktonnes (EMEP, 2016). As more stringent NOx emission control is gradually enforced for stationary and mobile sources on land, the share of NOx emission reduction potential attributable to international shipping is expected to increase in the future.

One instrument is a NOx emission control area (NECA) in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea; the other is a combination of NECA and a NOx levy with revenues going back to shipping companies as subsidy for NOx abatement uptake. Both instruments are assumed to be in force in 2021. In the analysis, we operate with three main scenarios: • Baseline (no additional policy instruments) • NECA • NECA+Levy&fund

In the NECA scenario we assume that no extra use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is introduced and that the Tier III requirements for marine gasoil (MGO) fuelled vessels are fulfilled by installing selective catalytic reduction (SCR). In the NECA+Levy&fund scenario it is further assumed that Tier 0 vessels will not install SCR but pay levy instead, and that 75 per cent of Tier I and Tier II vessels will take up retrofit SCR, given that it is more profitable than paying the levy.

Total abatement costs have been assessed from the socio-economic perspective, implying low interest rate and long investment lifetime at investment costs’ annualization. Health benefits have been estimated with the GAINS and the Alpha-RiskPoll models. The method for estimating health benefits is the same as applied in cost-benefit analyses supporting the European Commission’s work on the air pollution abatement strategies and the work of the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution.

År 2013 är EU:s ”luftår”. Under detta år ser EU över den Tematiska Strategin för Luftföroreningar (TSAP) och reviderar inom detta EU:s utsläppstaksdirektiv (NEC). Denna rapport är framtagen för att ge svenskt underlag kring åtgärdspotential och åtgärdskostnader för utsläppsminskningar av NOx och PM2,5 i den svenska transportsektorn år 2025. Analyserna genomfördes genom att utgå från officiella prognoser för aktivitet och utsläpp från vägtransporter och arbetsmaskiner. Ur litteratur söktes sedan efter möjliga åtgärder som skulle kunna minska utsläpp ytterligare. Information om åtgärder och dess effekt på prognoserna kvantifierades och resulterande utsläpp samt åtgärdskostnader beräknades. Endast ett urval av åtgärder kunde analyseras inom den tillgängliga projekttiden. Analysens resultat byggde på några viktiga förutsättningar: utsläpp enligt utsläppskrav motsvarar faktiska utsläpp; förbättring av bränsleeffektivitet sker enligt prognos; analyserade åtgärder som medförde ändringar i fordons- och maskinbestånd minskar antalet gamla fordon mest; det är hypotetiskt möjligt att ändra utsläppskrav så att energieffektivisering kan följas av lägre NOx och PM2,5-utsläpp. Den åtgärd som föreföll mest lovande för utsläppsminskning av NOx var en föryngring av lastbilsflottan. Hybridisering av arbetsmaskiner var visserligen mer kostnadseffektivt men har till 2025 en mycket liten potential. Då nya personbilar antas bli mer energieffektiva än nuvarande, och dessutom ha lägre utsläpp av NOx och PM2,5 tydde analyserna på att det vore fördelaktigt med styrmedel som forcerar föryngring av personbilsflottan till 2025.

Air pollution is the largest health risk from environmental causes, mainly driven by human exposure to fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm (PM2.5). Emissions from combustion engines (including ship engines) contribute to PM2.5 in ambient air both with primary particles (black carbon), organic carbon, and other particles) and with secondary particles formed from exhaust gases – mainly nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulphur oxides (SOX). NOx and SOx react with ammonia (NH3) in the atmosphere to form secondary inorganic aerosols, which have been shown to constitute ∼30–50% of PM2.5 levels in ambient air in northern and central European countries.

We analyse the potential for emission reduction, emission control costs, and monetised benefits following the introduction of a NECA. Costs and benefits are compared for 2030. We compile new data on emission control costs for shipping, use the GAINS model for calculations of emission dispersion, and the Alpha-RiskPoll model for estimating monetary values of health impacts. The model results show that costs to conform to the NOX regulations of a NECA in the Baltic Sea, North Sea or both sea regions would be 111 (100–123), 181 (157–209), and 230 (195–273) million € per year, respectively.

Corresponding benefits from reduced emissions are estimated to be 139 (56–294), 869 (335–1882), and 1007 (392–2177) million € per year, respectively. Calculated benefits surpass costs for most scenarios, but less convincingly for a Baltic Sea NECA. Conforming to the NECA regulations by using Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) propulsion engines is estimated to give the highest net benefits but also the largest variation (costs: 153 (88–238), benefits: 1556 (49–3795) million €/year). The variations are mainly due to uncertainties in the valuation of avoided fatalities and climate impacts. It is concluded that the NECAs for the Baltic and North Seas can be justified using CBA under all but extreme assumptions.