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  • 1. Andersson, Camilla
    et al.
    Ekman, Annica
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Grennfelt, Peringe
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Gruzieva, Olena
    Hansson, Hans-Christen
    Karlsson, Per Erik
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Lagner, Joakim
    Moldan, Filip
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Munthe, John
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Pleijel, Håkan
    Segersson, David
    Stockfelt, Leo
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Achievements and experiences from science–policy interaction in the field of air pollution: Synthesising 20 years of research and outreach,thinking about future needs2021Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    For 20 years, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency together with the MISTRA research foundation have funded five air pollution research programmes with focus on producing knowledge that supports policy and emission control in national and international arenas. The research has been multidisciplinary and has included research on emissions, atmospheric transport and transformation processes, human health effects, ecosystem effects, and emission control strategies. Research has also been conducted on the interaction between air pollution and climate change.

    Over these years, the link between the research programmes and the development of emission control strategies and policies in Sweden, the EU, and the UNECE Air Convention has been of high importance. This report presents how the research programmes have created societal benefits through support for the development of air pollution policies and emission control measures. The report also identifies future research needs to ensure continued progress towards even better air quality for future generations.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 2.
    Arnell, Jenny
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Impact from policy instruments on use of industrial excess heat2015Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Increasing resource efficiency and reducing carbon emissions in manufacturing industry are prioritised objectives in both international and domestic policies. At the same time, Swedish industry is struggling to remain competitive in international markets. There is at the same time increasing internal competition for bio-based resources among sectors. Currently there are a number of taxes, restrictions and other policy instruments targeted with the goals to increase the use of renewable energy, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy efficiency. Excess heat from industry accounts for almost 5 TWh of the delivered heat to district heating in Sweden today but there is a potential for further recovery of excess heat. An increased utilization of industrial excess heat is desirable in terms both of improved energy efficiency and resource efficiency. This project describes the impact from existing policy instrument on one important solution to improve the energy- and resource efficiency of the energy system: the use of industrial excess or residual heat for district heating networks. There are several policy instruments with an impact but only a few that gives benefits for the use of industrial excess heat. The Regulated Access to the district heat implemented in the Swedish policy for district heating, put up guidance regarding under which conditions an industry can demand access, and point out that the cost should be taken by the industry part. The Energy Efficient Directive governs that a complete cost benefit analysis including existing industrial excess heat must be examined when planning a new process or plant. And the market-based support system for renewable electricity production, the electricity certificates. In the case of chemical industries in Stenungsund excess heat could be delivered to the district heating networks in Kungälv and/or Gothenburg. An optimisation in a regional cost minimising model of the energy system in Västra Götaland of Sweden shows the possibilities to deliver heat. In this report the consequence on the used amount of excess heat from electricity certificates are presented. The studied energy system of Västra Götaland will use more excess heat for district heating when there is no or low price on the certificates. This report is only available in English.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 3.
    Ekvall, Tomas
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Stenmarck, Åsa
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Ökad återvinning av hushållens platsförpackningar2013Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Denna studie, som i huvudsak genomfördes år 2006-2007, syftar till att uppskatta den samhällsekonomiska kostnaden och nyttan av att nå 30% materialåtervinning av plastförpackningar genom ökad återvinning av förpackningar från hushållen. År 2007 återvanns uppskattningsvis 12 kton plastförpackningar från hushållen. För att nå 30% materialåtervinning totalt, behöver den mängden öka med 7,4 kton till 19,4 kton per år. Vi har studerat tre olika strategier för att nå dit: ökad insamling genom utbyggd fastighetsnära insamling (FNI), ökad insamling genom information till hushållen ökad insamling genom viktbaserad avfallstaxa. Ökad FNI leder till en ökad kostnad för själva insamlingen som uppskattas till 72 Mkr/år. Kostnaden för informationskampanjer uppskattas (eventuellt optimistiskt) till 12 Mkr/år. Viktbaserad avfalltaxa kräver ökad administration och ny utrustning. Vi uppskattar kostnaden för detta till 89 Mkr. Ökad plaståtervinning ger å andra sidan en miljövinst. Vi har uppskattat den med hjälp av livscykelanalyser och värderingsmetoderna NEXT och EPS. Värdet på miljövinsten är 7.5-8 eller knappt 85 Mkr/år, beroende på vilken metod som används för att värdera emissioner och resursförbrukning. Miljönyttan är dock ungefär lika stor för alla strategierna, så länge som de leder till samma återvinningsgrad. Med våra antaganden och data har miljövinsten och kostnaden för genomförandet av strategierna samma storleksordning. Det finns också många stora osäkerheter i beräkningarna. Det går därför inte att avgöra om ökad materialåtervinning av plastförpackningar från hushållen ger en samhällsekonomisk nytta eller ej. Det finns dock skäl att tro att samhällsnyttan blir större och tydligare i framtiden. En orsak är att det sannolikt finns en potential till förbättringar i dagens processer och system för plaståtervinning.  En annan är att plaståtervinning blir mer lönsam när priset på råolja och naturgas stiger.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 4.
    Fridell, Erik
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Ytreberg, Erik
    Valuating environmental impacts from ship emissions - the marine perspective2020Inngår i: Journal of Environmental Management, ISSN 0301-4797, E-ISSN 1095-8630, Vol. 282, artikkel-id 111958Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Shipping is an activity responsible for a range of different pressures affecting the marine environment, air quality and human welfare. The methodology on how ship emissions impact air quality and human health are comparatively well established and used in cost-benefit analysis of policy proposals. However, the knowledge base is not the same for impacts on the marine environment and a coherent environmental and socio-economic impact assessment of shipping has not yet been made. This risk policies to be biased towards air pollution whilst trading off impacts on the marine environment. The aim of the current study was to develop a comprehensive framework on how different pressures from shipping degrade marine ecosystems, air quality and human welfare. A secondary aim was to quantify the societal damage costs of shipping due to the degradation of human welfare in a Baltic Sea case study. By adding knowledge from marine ecotoxicology and life-cycle analysis to the existing knowledge from climate, air pollution and environmental economics we were able to establish a more comprehensive conceptual framework that allows for valuation of environmental impacts from shipping, but it still omits economic values for biological pollution, littering and underwater noise. The results for the Baltic Sea case showed the total annual damage costs of Baltic Sea shipping to be 2.9 billion €2010 (95% CI 2.0–3.9 billion €2010). The damage costs due to impacts on marine eutrophication (768 million €2010) and marine ecotoxicity (582 million €2010) were in the same range as the total damage costs associated with reduced air quality (816 million €2010) and climate change (737 million €2010). The framework and the results from the current study can be used in future socio-economic assessments of ship emissions to prioritize cost efficient measures. The framework can be used globally but the damage costs presented on the marine environment are restricted to emissions on the Baltic Sea and Kattegat region as they are based on willingness to pay studies conducted on citizens around the Baltic Sea where eutrophication and emissions of chemicals are particularly threats to the state of the Baltic Sea.

  • 5.
    Gustafsson, Malin
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Lindén, Jenny
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Umeå Universitet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    MM Johansson, Emelie
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Quantification of population exposure to NO2, PM10 and PM2.5, and estimated health impacts 20192022Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish population exposure to concentrations of NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 was quantified for 2019, and the health and associated economic consequences were calculated. Most of the population was exposed to levels below the environmental standards. However, compared to the recently updated WHO 2021 Air Quality Guidelines, our calculations indicate that 82% of the population is exposed to unacceptable levels of PM2.5, and 11 % to unacceptable levels of NO2. We estimate a total of 6740 deaths per year. The health impacts can be estimated to cause socio-economic costs of ~168 billion SEK. 

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 6.
    Gustafsson, Malin
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Lindén, Jenny
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Sjöberg, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Tang, Lin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Quantification of population exposure to NO2, PM2.5 and PM10 and estimated health impacts2018Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    IVL and the Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine at Umeå University have, on behalf of the Swedish EPA, performed a health impact assessment (HIA) for the year 2015. The population exposure to annual mean concentrations of NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 in ambient air has been quantified, and the health and associated economic consequences have been calculated based on these results.

    To allow application of known exposure-response functions for assessment of health effects this study exclusively focus on regional and urban background concentrations. Roadside concentrations are not addressed here. The results from this study show that background concentrations of the examined pollutants in 2015 were overall low, well below the environmental standards in most parts of the country. The background concentrations were also below the environmental objective for all examined pollutants, with the exception of a small stretch along the Swedish west coast and Skåne, where the particle concentrations were of the same magnitude as the environmental objective. It should be noted that a slight over-estimation of PM2.5 may occur in coastal regions due to the presence of sea salt which may affect the PM2.5/PM10 ratio used to calculate PM2.5 in this study.

    Nearly the entire Swedish population was exposed to concentrations below the environmental standards, and 97%, 78% and 77% was exposed to concentrations below the respective specifications of the environmental objective for NO2, PM10 and PM2.5. Exposure to the highest concentrations was found in the most polluted central parts of our largest cities.

    Comparing the results from this study to the 2010 assessment shows a slight increase in mean population exposure to NO2 and PM. For NO2, we also find a slight increase in the percentage of the population exposed to concentrations above the environmental objective. For PM, exposure to concentrations above the environmental objective was instead found to have decreased with up to 5%. Particle concentrations show a decreasing trend in Sweden, resulting in reduced exposure to the highest PM concentrations and an increased exposure to concentrations just below the environmental objectives. The slight increase in mean population exposure to PM can be explained by a growing population and ongoing urbanization, resulting in more people exposed to relatively high PM concentrations in the urban centres. While the contribution of local sources is minor for the smallest PM, it makes up the major part of NO2 concentrations in urban areas. The slight increase indicated for NO2 exposure is thus primarily connected to increased local emissions of NO2, due to, for example, increasing traffic and use of diesel vehicles. This, in combination with the ongoing urbanization, results in a growing number of people living in areas with higher concentrations.

    Excess mortality is usually the main health indicator. We estimate approximately 3600 deaths per year associated with exposure to regional background (long-distance transported) concentrations of PM2.5. On average each premature death represents over 11 years of life lost. The total exposure to PM2.5 was recently in an EU report estimated to cause just over 3700 deaths per year in Sweden when no differences between sources and no threshold for effects were assumed. We assume that locally emitted particles (road dust, wood smoke and exhaust particles) have different effects on mortality, but face problems to find specific exposure-response functions. This is even more striking regarding effects on morbidity. Acknowledging the uncertainty, we estimate particles from local wood burning to cause more than 900 deaths per year, but here the exposure estimate is very uncertain. For road dust we calculate 215 deaths per year based on the exposure-response function from a Swedish study. We believe that the impact on mortality from locally emitted vehicle exhaust including particles is best indicated by exposure-response functions for within city gradients in NO2, which also could include effects of NO2 itself. We estimate approximately 2850 deaths per year from vehicle exhaust, but using alternative risk functions would result in 15-30% reduced estimates.

    The total number of excess deaths due to air pollution exposure was estimated up to 7600 in 2015. The increase in comparison to the 2010 estimate is not due to changes in estimated exposure, but resulting from a revision of assumed exposure-response relations. If we for 2010 had assumed the urban NO2 contribution to increase mortality without any cutoff, we would have estimated almost the same impact on mortality associated with NO2 as in 2015. Finally, the health impacts from exposure to NO2 and PM2.5 can be conservatively estimated to cause socio-economic costs of ~56 billion Krona in 2015. Just absence from work and studies can be estimated to cause socio-economic costs of ~0.4% of GDP in Sweden.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 7.
    Gustafsson, Malin
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Orru, Hans
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Sjöberg, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Quantification of population exposure to NO2, PM2.5 and PM10 and estimated health impacts in Sweden 20102014Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Sweden is one of the countries in Europe which experiences the lowest concentrations of air pollutants in urban areas. Despite this, health impacts of exposure to ambient air pollution is still an important issue in the country and the concentration levels, especially of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particles (PM10 and PM2.5), exceed the air quality standards at street level in many urban areas. IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute and the Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine at Umeå University have, on behalf of the Swedish EPA, performed a health impact assessment (HIA) for the year 2010. The population exposure to annual mean concentrations of NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 in ambient air has been quantified and the health and associated economic consequences have been calculated based on these results. Environmental standards as well as environmental objectives are to be met everywhere, also at the most exposed kerb sides. However, for exposure calculations it is more relevant to used urban background data, on which also most available exposure-response functions are based. The results show that in 2010 most of the country had rather low NO2 urban background concentrations in comparison to the environmental quality standard for the annual mean (40 µg/m3) and the population weighted average exposure to NO2 was 6.2 µg/m3. Likewise the PM10 urban background concentrations, compared to the environmental quality standard for the annual mean (40 µg/m3), were also low in most parts of the country. However, in some parts, mainly in southern Sweden the concentration levels were of the same magnitude as the environmental objective (20 µg/m3 as an annual mean) for the year 2010. The majority of people, 90 percent, were exposed to annual mean concentrations of PM10 less than 20 µg/m3. Less than 5 percent of the Swedish inhabitants experienced exposure levels of PM10 above 25 µg/m3. The modelling results for PM2.5 show that the urban background concentration levels in 2010 were of the same order of magnitude as the environmental objective (12 µg/m3 as an annual mean for the year 2010) in a quite large part of the country. About 70% of the population was exposed to PM2.5 annual mean concentrations lower than 10 µg/m3, while less than 15 percent experienced levels above 12 µg/m3. There is currently within the research community a focus on the different types of particles and more and more indications that their impact on health and mortality differ. Yet a common view is still that current knowledge does not allow precise quantification of the health effects of PM emissions from different sources. However, when the impact on mortality from PM10 is predicted, exposure-response functions obtained using PM2.5 are usually reduced using the PM2.5/PM10 concentration ratio. Assessment of health impacts of particle pollution is thus difficult. Even if WHO in HRAPIE and others assessments still choose to recommend the same relative risk per particle mass concentration regardless of source and composition, we find this a too conservative approach. Therefore we applied different exposure-response functions for primary combustion generated particles (from motor vehicles and residential wood burning), for road dust and for other particles (the regional background of mainly secondary particles).

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 8. Hansson, H-C
    et al.
    Johansson, Christer
    Nyqvist, Gunnar
    Kindbom, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Moldanova, Jana
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Black carbon — Possibilities to reduce emissions and potential effects2012Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    The present report emerge from the Swedish EPA project ?Black carbon — possibilities to reduce emissions and potential effects? to obtain an overall assessment of the opportunities and costs for reducing emissions of "soot" (black carbon - BC) in Sweden and its effects on health, ecosystems and climate. The basic analytical methods and techniques are described and reviewed. Existing and upcoming standards are described. The national BC emission inventory has been evaluated through a thorough basic review of the underlying data and processes as well as comparison with other inventories. The report identifies scientific and technological needs (such as methods for emission estimates and emission measurement) needed to implement mitigation measures and assess its impact.The following major conclusions emerge from this report concerning BC and Organic Carbon (OC);Standardized sampling, measurement and analytic methods for BC and OC are underway. Some major networks have already developed standardized methods giving high quality data. A more general standardization will ensure comparability between networks. So future measurements will have less uncertainty and data should be comparable. However this also means that historic data always shall be used with caution. The total BC and OC emissions reported by different inventories agree fairly well, e.g. results from the GAINS scenario estimates and national inventory agree within 30 — 40 % but estimates of major source types can differ with more than a factor 2. This must be investigated as such errors can affect the mitigation policy. Investigations have been started.There is a great need for national projections for 2020 and 2030 for BC but also the other related climate forcing air pollutants.Other climate forcing air pollutants are besides BC and other particle components and ozone. Besides that they affect climate they have a short life time in the atmosphere, thus called Short Lived Climate Forcing compounds (SLCF). Included in the SLCFs are also methane as it affects ozone chemistry even though it has an intermediate atmospheric life time. Inventories and projections on national policy implementation plans have to be developed keeping in mind that climate and health effects depend not on one component only, e.g. soot but rather a mix of different components. The climate effects can be best reduced by a decrease of CO2 and SLCF, while health effects can be reduced by reduced emissions of particles and ozone precursors. The inventories thus have to include the emissions of all these components for all available reduction technologies to facilitate the development of the best abatement strategy. The analysis shows that all techniques involving combustion should be reviewed concerning emissions of all mentioned components.It is clearly shown that regulation of SLCF can give co-beneficial effects on climate, health and ecosystem. However it cannot replace the abatement of long-lived climate forcers but rather increase the climate response to the abatements. The reductions needed for 2050 and beyond have to be large. Combustion is the basic process in the major common sources 6 for CO2, O3-precursors and particles including BC. Combustion has to be questioned as a part of future sustainable transport systems, energy and heat production.The Swedish abatement costs for different SLCF abatement options varied strongly, in the hypothetical scenarios. However the same abatement options show up as the most cost effective in all scenarios. The three most cost effective options covered about 30% of the present emissions. The most cost effective measures found, e.g. decreasing BC emissions from power production and renewing of domestic fuel wood boilers, are found to be in the same range as CO2 ETS price projected for Sweden in 2020. The cost estimates were in line with other studies. Still, the measures studied represent only a very small fraction of all options available to reduce BC emissions. The cost effectiveness of more alternatives in both the mobile and stationary sectors should be assessed. Fuel efficiency improvements, fuel shifts, as well as scrapping schemes are all potentially interesting options. In conclusion, the options analyzed in this study are found to be effective complements, both from health and climate point of view.

  • 9.
    Kindbom, Karin
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Gustafsson, Tomas
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Potentials for reducing the health and climate impacts of residential biomass combustion in the Nordic countries2018Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Residential biomass combustion is a major source of PM2.5 and SLCP (Short Lived Climate Pollutants) emissions in the Nordic countries. SLCPs and PM2.5 have impact on climate, environment and health. To develop strategies for reducing emissions and the associated impacts, reliable information on current emissions and how they can be reduced by measures such as upgrading or exchange of combustion technologies is essential.

    There are uncertainties in the underlying data used in the emission inventories for residential biomass combustion. Detailed enough knowledge on the amount and moisture content of biomass fuel used in different combustion technologies is needed, as well as knowledge about user related factors such as combustion behaviour.

    There are similarities between Denmark, Finland and Sweden, but also some significant differences in national equipment and use patterns in addition to activity data collection procedures. Differences related to information on activity data are mainly in the status of knowledge and the type and sources of information available and/or used. In general for all three countries, procedures to regularly update information on technologies, user behaviour and fuel amounts combusted in each technology are needed to be able to prepare reliable emission inventories and to reflect future changes. As the current data collection procedures in the countries have evolved somewhat differently, but all with the same ultimate objective of good enough data for emission inventory purposes, lessons can be learnt from each other, as appropriate.

    The scenario results suggest that there is a realistic and technical potential to reduce the adverse health effects and, to some extent, the climate impact from future residential biomass combustion in Denmark, Finland and Sweden by reducing emissions of SLCPs and PM2.5. The level of used amounts of wood, penetration of modern technology in residential biomass combustion and the user behaviour in managing the combustion process all have significant impacts on the emission levels in the three Nordic countries. The amount of biomass fuel combusted was not investigated in this study and the total amount of biomass was kept constant in all scenarios. Find the result in the study in the report.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 10.
    Kindbom, Karin
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Wisell, Tomas
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Sjödin, Åke
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kortlivade klimatpåverkande luftföroreningar (SLCP)2015Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    IVL has on commission from the Swedish Cross-Party Committee on Environmental Objectives (Miljömålsberedningen) compiled information on present and future emissions of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP) in Sweden, as well as performed an analysis of further emission reduction potentials and associated costs in 2030. Main results from the study: According to the Swedish emission projections, which take current legislation into account, the national total emissions of all SLCPs will be lower in 2030 compared to today. The trend, however, is different for different sources. Emissions from road traffic are expected to decline significantly. From other mobile sources reductions are also expected, but to a lesser extent than from road traffic. Emissions from residential combustion of biomass are expected to remain at about the same level as at present, why these emissions in relative terms will increase in importance. Mobile sources and residential combustion, which produce emissions from combustion of fuels, emit all SLCPs except HFCs. The agricultural sector is the main emission source for CH4 both today and in the future. For NMVOC emissions from the “solvent and product use” sector is the dominating source. CH4 from the agricultural sector, as well as NMVOC from product and solvent use, are both reduced only slightly to 2030 according to the projections. Emissions of CH4 and NMVOC from other sources are projected be reduced to a greater extent. Agriculture will thus be of relatively greater importance for emissions of CH4 in the future, as will solvent and product use for NMVOC emissions. Emissions of HFCs are expected to decline significantly in the future and there is most likely no cost-effective potential for further reductions of HFC emissions. There is currently no comprehensive Swedish analysis available of cost-effective measures to reduce emissions of SLCP in Sweden 2030. Best available knowledge suggests that there will be technical emission reduction measures available, with a potential to reduce emissions in 2030 beyond currently projected emissions. This report is only available in Swedish.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 11.
    Lindblad, Maria
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Belhaj, Mohammed
    Rydberg, Tomas
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Lexén, Jenny
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Meta-analysis of damage costs related to health, the built environment and the ecosystem2011Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    This report addresses damage costs related to the negative effects that may occur on human health, the built environment, or the eco-system, when hazardous substances are released from the products they were originally contained in. More specifically, the report focuses on the external cost of damages. Here, three different models for monetary valuation of externalities have been studied in more detail; that is the EPS system, LIME and ExternE/NewExt/NEEDS. These models all assess costs of impacts to human health and ecosystem production capacity. The EPS system and LIME also addresses costs related to biodiversity while ExternE/NewExt/NEEDS is the model that focuses most on damages to the built environment. The monetary weighting factors presented in the different models are quite similar in size; most often the different models value the same externality within a factor of 10. A case study was also made to show how emissions can be linked to damage costs for a certain substance, here the substance lead. The main negative effect caused by emissions of lead was assessed to the IQ decrement. For the case of lead, damage costs are approximately 2680-5900 €/emitted kg Pb according to Spadaro & Rabl (2004) and 1.58-2910 €/emitted kg Pb according to Steen (1999b).Svensk sammanfattning...

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 12.
    Lindblad, Maria
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kindbom, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Gustafsson, Tomas
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Samhällsekonomisk konsekvensanalys för Sverige av ett reviderat Göteborgsprotokoll till år 20202013Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet AB har på uppdrag av Naturvårdsverket genomfört en samhällsekonomisk konsekvensanalys som syftar till att belysa effekter på svensk ekonomi av de scenarier som tagits fram till förhandlingarna inom FN:s Luftvårdskonvention (CLRTAP) angående en revision av Göteborgsprotokollet. Scenarierna analyserades i flera moment med olika fokus. Enkelt beskrivet analyserades: vilka tekniska åtgärder som inkluderades i scenarierna; hur åtgärdskostnader fördelades mellan sektorer; hur stor den monetariserade hälsonyttan skulle bli i scenarierna. Dessutom analyseras eventuell påverkan på Svenska sektorers internationella konkurrenskraft. Jämförelsen mellan de två huvudscenarier som analyserats, BL-scenariot och MID-scenariot, visade att de Europeiska utsläppsnivåerna i MID scenariot skulle innebära bland annat 300 färre antal luftföroreningsrelaterade dödsfall i Sverige år 2020. Detta och andra hälsoeffekter skulle innebära en årlig monetär samhällsnytta motsvarande ca 249 miljoner €2005. När dessa kostnader jämförs med skillnaden i åtgärdskostnad mellan BL- och MID-scenariot, 14 miljoner €2005 årligen, så ges en nettonytta på 235 miljoner €2005 per år för Sverige, och en nyttokostnadskvot på 18. De åtgärder som specificeras i MID-scenariot är endast riktade mot stationära källor och i stort sett endast utsläppsrening (viss förbränningsmodifikation tas hänsyn till). Det finns även andra åtgärder tillgängliga år 2020 som skulle kunna vara mer kostnadseffektiva än de åtgärder som ligger till grund för MID-scenariot, till exempel inom vägtransporter. Då de exportinriktade sektorerna i Sverige främst exporterar till andra CLRTAP-länder, bedömde vi att den internationella konkurrenskraften inte borde påverkas nämnvärt.    Denna rapport är en reviderad version av en rapport som ursprungligen skrevs under hösten 2011, och i rapporten betraktas därför hösten 2011 som nutid.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
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  • 13.
    Mawdsley, Ingrid
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Källmark, Lovisa
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Styrmedelseffekter på utsläpp av luftföroreningar och växthusgaser - Nulägesanalys av åtta förbränningsanläggningar2020Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Styrmedel för utsläpp av luftföroreningar respektive växthusgaser kan ha en samverkande eller motverkande effekt. IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet har på uppdrag av Naturvårdsverket undersökt hur utsläpp av kväveoxider och partiklar från en förbränningsanläggning påverkas av klimatstyrmedel och hur utsläpp av växthusgaser påverkas av luftstyrmedel

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 14.
    Munthe, John
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Arnell, Jenny
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Moldan, Filip
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Karlsson, Per Erik
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Gustafsson, Tomas
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kindbom, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Hellsten, Sofie
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Hansen, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Jutterström, Sara
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Lindblad, Maria
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Tekie, Haben
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Malmaeus, Mikael
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kronnäs, Veronika
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Klimatförändringen och miljömål2016Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Forskningsprogrammet CLEO, Climate change and Environmental Objectives, startades 2010 efter en utlysning från Naturvårdsverket där man efterfrågade forskning med en övergripande målsättning att få: * En analys och kvantifiering av hur förändringar i klimatet, såsom temperatur, nederbörd och avrinning, påverkar förutsättningarna att nå de miljömål som påverkas av långväga transporterade luftföroreningar * En beskrivning och analys av synergier och målkonflikter av åtgärder, både nationellt och internationellt, för att minska utsläpp av växthusgaser och andra luftföroreningar för att nå uppsatta miljömål. * Förbättrad kunskap om grundläggande processer för att ta fram tillförlitliga prognoser och scenarier för utvecklingen mot miljömålen, förbättrade indata till existerande modeller samt bättre sammanlänkning av modeller för klimat, luft och ekosystem.

    Programmet har fokuserat på miljömålen Frisk luft, Bara Naturlig Försurning, Ingen övergödning och i viss mån Giftfri miljö. Då målsättningen var att ta fram resultat som är relevanta för pågående arbete med miljömålen och för långsiktiga överväganden så har CLEO arbetat med framtidsscenarier som både fokuserat på en relativt nära framtid (2030), och i vissa avseenden ett längre tidsperspektiv (2100).

    This report is only available in Swedish. English summary is available in the report.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 15.
    Munthe, John
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Moldan, Filip
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Karlsson, Per Erik
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Gustafsson, Tomas
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kindbom, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Hellsten, Sofie
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Hansen, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Jutterström, Sara
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Lindblad, Maria
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kronnäs, Veronika
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Malmaeus, Mikael
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Klimatförändringen och miljömålen2014Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    This report is only available in Swedish.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 16.
    Munthe, John
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Moldan, Filip
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Karlsson, Per Erik
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Gustafsson, Tomas
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kindbom, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Hellsten, Sofie
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Hansen, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Jutterström, Sara
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Lindblad, Maria
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Malmaeus, Mikael
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Klimatförändringen och miljömålen - Sammanfattning och slutsatser2014Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    This report is only available in Swedish.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 17.
    Sjöberg, Karin
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Haeger-Eugensson, Marie
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Hellsten, Sofie
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Björk, Anders
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Blomgren, Håkan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Westling, Klara
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Quantification of population exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 in Sweden 20052009Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    The population exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 in ambient air for the year 2005 has been quantified (annual and daily mean concentrations) and the health and associated economic consequences have been calculated based on these results. The PM10 urban background concentrations are found to be rather low compared to the environmental standard for the annual mean (40 µg/m3) in most of the country. However, in some parts, mainly in southern Sweden, the concentrations were of the same magnitude as the environmental objective (20 µg/m3 as an annual mean) for the year 2010. The majority of people, 90%, were exposed to annual mean concentrations of PM10 less than 20 µg/m3. Less than 1% of the Swedish inhabitants experienced exposure levels of PM10 above 25 µg/m3. The urban background concentrations of PM2.5 were in the same order of magnitude as the environmental objective (12 µg/m3 as an annual mean for the year 2010) in quite a large part of the country. About 50% of the population was exposed to PM2.5 annual mean concentrations less than 10 µg/m3, while less than 2% experienced levels above 15 µg/m3. Using a cut off at 5 µg/m3 of PM10 as the annual mean (roughly excluding natural PM) and source specific ER-functions, we estimate approximately 3 400 premature deaths per year. Together with 1 300 - 1 400 new cases of chronic bronchitis, around 1 400 hospital admissions and some 4.5-5 million RADs, the societal cost for health impacts is estimated at approximately 26 billion SEK per year. For PM2.5 we estimate somewhat lower numbers, approximately 3 100 premature deaths per year. The results suggest that the health effects related to high annual mean levels of PM can be valued to annual socio-economic costs (welfare losses) of ~26 billion Swedish crowns (SEK) during 2005. Approximately 1.4 of these 26 billion SEK consist of productivity losses for society. Furthermore, the amount of working and studying days lost constitutes some ~0.1% of the total amount of working and studying days in Sweden during 2005.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 18.
    Sjöberg, Karin
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Haeger-Eugensson, Marie
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Hellsten, Sofie
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Tang, Lin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Quantification of population exposure to nitrogen dioxide in Sweden 20052007Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    The population exposure to NO2 in ambient air for the year 2005 has been quantified (annual and daily mean concentrations) and the health and associated economical consequences have been calculated based on these results. Almost 50% of the population were exposed to annual mean NO2 concentrations of less than 5 µg/m3. A further 30% were exposed to concentration levels between 5-10 µg NO2/m3, and only about 5% of the Swedish inhabitants experienced exposure levels above 15 NO2 µg/m3. Using 10 µg/m3 as a lower cut off for long-term exposure we estimate that concentations of NO2 in urban air resulted in more than 3200 excess deaths per year. Almost 600 of these could have been avoided if annual mean concentrations above the environmental goal 20 µg/m3 did not exist. Most excess deaths are estimated to occur due to annual levels in the range of 10-15 µg/m3. In addition we estimated more than 300 excess hospital admissions for all respiratory disease and almost 300 excess hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease due to the short-term effect of levels above 10 µg/m3. The results suggest that the health effects related to annual mean levels of NO2 higher than 10 µg/m3 can be valued to annual socio-economic costs of 18.5 billion Swedish crowns. These 18.5 billion Swedish crowns are to be considered as welfare losses. However, only 18 % of these costs are related to exceedance of the Swedish long term environmental objectives for NO2. The other 82 % of the costs are taken by the larger part of the Swedish population that are exposed to medium levels of NO2. This displacement in the distribution of the social costs indicates that the most cost effective abatement strategy for Sweden might be to reduce medium annual levels of NO2 rather than only focusing on abatement measures directed towards the highest annual mean levels.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 19.
    Staffas, Louise
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Tufvesson, Linda
    Svenfelt, Åsa
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Torén, Johan
    Arushanyan, Yevgeniya
    Alternative sources for products competing with forest based biofuel, a pre-study2013Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Skogsråvara används idag till olika ändamål, som till exempel pappersprodukter av olika slag, sågade trävaror och energi – huvudsakligen i form av fasta bränslen. Det finns även en viss produktion av drivmedel, men inte i så stor skala som förväntas i framtiden. Utvecklingen av sådan tillverkning är intensiv och biobaserade drivmedel eftersträvas och premieras med bland annat styrmedel och politiska mål. Biomassa är en förnyelsebar resurs och som sådan mycket intressant för många användningsområden, som till exempel nya material och flytande och gasformiga bränslen och drivmedel. Framställningen av biodrivmedel kommer med all sannolikhet att öka under de kommande åren – i synnerhet som Sverige har ett mål om en fossiloberoende fordonsflotta till år 2030. Skogen ska, förutom att vara råvara till ovanstående typer av produkter, också tillgodose behoven av de så kallade ekosystemtjänsterna, som till exempel biodiversitet, fiske, jakt, rekreation och bärplockning som därmed också konkurrerar om denna råvara. Idag har Sverige en netto-tillväxt av skog, vilket, åtminstone teoretiskt, ger utrymme för ökat uttag av skogsbiomassa i Sverige och därmed en ökad tillverkning av produkter därav. Tillgången på skogsbiomassa är dock inte obegränsad eftersom tillväxten måste vara lika med, eller större, än uttaget. Därför måste skogsbiomassa betraktas som en begränsad resurs och dess användning bör vara sådan att den ger maximal fördel jämfört med användning av fossila resurser. Det medför att LCA och andra utvärderingar av miljömässiga konsekvenser av en produkt från skogsbiomassa bör inkludera alternativa råvaror för produkter som konkurrerar om samma råvara. Denna förstudie omfattar en beskrivning av svenskt skogsbruk och sambandet mellan olika kvaliteter av skogsbiomassa, en workshop (vid vilken konkurrensen om skogsbiomassa diskuterades med experter i ämnet), en teoretisk diskussion om indirekta effekter och biomasse-potentialer, samt två fallstudier i vilka de teroetiska resonemangen appliceras. Traditionella utvärderingar av produkters miljöbelastning inkluderar inte begränsning av tillgång på råvara eller konkurrens om densamma, vilket, bland annat för produktionen av bioetanol har befunnits ha stor betydelse. Samma sak gäller även för andra produkter från skogsbiomassa. Den huvudsakliga slutsatsen av studien är att alternativa råvaror för produkter som konkurrerar om skogsråvaran måste inkluderas när miljöbelastningen av en skogsråvarubaserad produkt analyseras. Detta är mycket komplext eftersom indirekta effekter är svåra att förutse och beror på många faktorer, som exempelvis marknadslägen, styrmedel och politiska mål. Icke desto mindre är frågan viktig för att utvecklingen av biobaserade råvaror ska bidra till en så minskad miljöbelastning som möjligt jämfört med de fossilbaserade motsvarigheterna.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 20. Sternhufvud, Catarina
    et al.
    Belhaj, Mohammed
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    The Features of Non Technical Measures and Their Importance in Cost Effective Abatement of Air Pollutant Emissions - Applied to Two Meta-Analyses2006Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    The overall purpose of this study is to compare the cost effectiveness of non-technical measures (NTM) and technical measures (TM). This requires an acceptable definition of NTM. There are two main questions discussed in this study in connection to the definition of NTM. Firstly, the distinction between technical measures and non-technical measures, and secondly the distinction between non-technical measures and policy instruments. In many studies policy instruments are frequently seen as NTM, but it is important to stress the difference between NTM and policy instruments. NTM relate to the actual emission reducing actions, while policy instruments relate to the means used to enforce abatement options, and may lead to both TM and NTM. The definition proposed in this study to separate TM from NTM, is based on the changes of input and output when incorporating a measure, instead of only focus on changes in emission factors and activity data. Based on the chosen definition of NTM, the project carried out two meta-analyses in the agricultural- and energy sectors. Since data on the shipping sector was not enough to allow a meta-analysis this sector was studied in a descriptive manner. The results of the meta regression for the agricultural and the energy sector included in this study give some insight on the cost effectiveness of NTM compared to TM. Depending on the nature of the subject i.e., a review of NTM, the data has been very scarce to allow consistent and representative results for all European countries; Most of the NTM studied have only one study as origin. Further, the reviewed studies are often related to the emissions of different pollutants, which have led to the use of different conversion factors in order run the meta regression

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 21. Sternhufvud, Catarina
    et al.
    Belhaj, Mohammed
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    The Features of Non Technical Measures and Their Importance in Cost Effective Abatement of Air Pollutant Emissions - Applied to Two Meta-Analyses2006Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    The overall purpose of this study is to compare the cost effectiveness of non-technical measures (NTM) and technical measures (TM). This requires an acceptable definition of NTM. There are two main questions discussed in this study in connection to the definition of NTM. Firstly, the distinction between technical measures and non-technical measures, and secondly the distinction between non-technical measures and policy instruments. In many studies policy instruments are frequently seen as NTM, but it is important to stress the difference between NTM and policy instruments. NTM relate to the actual emission reducing actions, while policy instruments relate to the means used to enforce abatement options, and may lead to both TM and NTM. The definition proposed in this study to separate TM from NTM, is based on the changes of input and output when incorporating a measure, instead of only focus on changes in emission factors and activity data. Based on the chosen definition of NTM, the project carried out two meta-analyses in the agricultural- and energy sectors. Since data on the shipping sector was not enough to allow a meta-analysis this sector was studied in a descriptive manner. The results of the meta regression for the agricultural and the energy sector included in this study give some insight on the cost effectiveness of NTM compared to TM. Depending on the nature of the subject i.e., a review of NTM, the data has been very scarce to allow consistent and representative results for all European countries; Most of the NTM studied have only one study as origin. Further, the reviewed studies are often related to the emissions of different pollutants, which have led to the use of different conversion factors in order run the meta regression

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 22. Sternhufvud, Catarina
    et al.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Feasibility study - a Swedish Integrated Assessment Model2006Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    The purpose of this feasibility study is to find out the interests in and requirements for the development of a Swedish Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) based on the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation model (RAINS) or the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model (GAINS). This study should also make clear the possibilities and constraints of a national model as well as discuss different applications of such a model. The purpose of this feasibility study is to find out the interests in and requirements for the development of a Swedish Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) based on the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation model (RAINS) or the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model (GAINS). This study should also make clear the possibilities and constraints of a national model as well as discuss different applications of such a model.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 23. Sternhufvud, Catarina
    et al.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Workshop on the importance of Non technical measures for reduction in emissions of air pollutants and how to consider them in Integrated Assessment Modelling. 7-8 December 2005.2006Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    This report compiles the outcome of the workshop on the importance of Non technical measures for reduction in emissions of air pollutants and how to consider them in Integrated Assessment Modelling. The workshop was taking place in Göteborg in Sweden 7-8 December 2005.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 24. Sternhufvud, Catarina
    et al.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Workshop on the importance of Non technical measures for reduction in emissions of air pollutants and how to consider them in Integrated Assessment Modelling. 7-8 December 2005.2006Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    This report compiles the outcome of the workshop on the importance of Non technical measures for reduction in emissions of air pollutants and how to consider them in Integrated Assessment Modelling. The workshop was taking place in Göteborg in Sweden 7-8 December 2005.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 25.
    Wisell, Tomas
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Sjödin, Åke
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Jerksjö, Martin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Black carbon från vägtrafik - Åtgärder för att minska exponering2015Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    This report is only available in Swedish.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 26.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Fridell, Erik
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Environmental assessment of Sweden-related LNG fleet in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea2019Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this study is to provide estimates of emissions from the liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuelled ships related to Sweden, and to outline benefits for society through reduced external costs of air pollutants and greenhouse gases from fuel shift from marine gasoil (MGO) to LNG. The total societal benefits from the Sweden-related LNG fleet in 2017 are estimated at 17.4 million €2010. This estimate includes reduced health and climate impacts and reduced crop damage.

    The largest contributor to the benefits is positive impact of emission reductions on population health. Lower emissions of primary particles (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) from LNG vessels, compared to a reference fleet running on MGO, result in lower concentrations of primary and secondary PM2.5 and ground-level ozone, and subsequently reduced premature mortality. Differences in emissions of main air pollutants between the analysed LNG fleet of 12 ships and a reference MGO fleet in 2017 are calculated to 100 tonnes of SO2, 160 tonnes of PM2.5 and 3 200 tonnes of NOx. The reduced NOX emissions correspond to the emissions from 24 300 average heavy duty trucks with an average mileage on the Swedish roads during the same year. Emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2 equivalents) are modelled to be similar for the LNG fleet and the MGO fuelled reference fleet: emissions of CO2 equivalents from the MGO fleet are estimated to be 6 ktonnes higher in 2017.

    Estimated emissions for 2022 are calculated assuming that present and already ordered LNG ships run mainly on LNG. The difference in emissions between these ships and reference ships fuelled with MGO is then significantly larger and constitutes 385 tonnes of SO2, 540 tonnes of PM2.5 and 11 200 tonnes of NOx. Emissions of greenhouse gases in 2022 are estimated at 640 ktonnes CO2 equivalents for the LNG fleet and 660 ktonnes CO2 equivalents for the MGO fleet.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 27.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kindbom, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Mawdsley, Ingrid
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Particle emissions in Belarus and in the Nordic countries - Emission inventories and integated assessment modelling of black carbon and PM2.52018Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The overall goal of the project is to stimulate decision-makers in Belarus to prioritize abatement measures aimed at black carbon in their efforts to reduce emissions of PM2.5, as encouraged in the Gothenburg protocol under the UNECE CLRTAP. To reach this purpose and in order to build up scientific basis necessary for further policy development, a comprehensive analysis of PM2.5 and BC emissions, emission reduction potentials and cost-effective abatement measures in Belarus has been conducted.

    The report presents two main parts of the conducted analysis: a part focused on the emission inventories, and a part summarizing the results of the integrated assessment modelling. The main focus is on analysis for Belarus; however, a range of modelling results have been obtained for the three participating Nordic countries – Denmark, Finland and Sweden.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 28.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Winnes, Hulda
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Fridell, Erik
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Cost-benefit analysis of NOX control for ships in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea2017Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Emissions of air pollutants from shipping (NOx, SOx, and PM2.5) make a significant contribution to the total emissions in Europe and world-wide. According to the analysis by Brandt et al. (2013), shipping emissions cause about 50 thousand premature deaths per year in Europe. Significant share of the sulphur and nitrogen deposition that causes acidification and eutrophication emanates from ship emissions. NOx emissions contribute to formation of secondary particles and ozone, resulting in increased number of respiratory and cardio-vascular diseases among the population, especially in coastal states.

    NOx emissions from anthropogenic sources reported by the 28 member countries of the European Union to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) amounted to ∼7820 ktonnes in 2014 (CEIP, 2017) whereas emissions from international shipping in the European seas for the same year are estimated at 3186 ktonnes (EMEP, 2016). As more stringent NOx emission control is gradually enforced for stationary and mobile sources on land, the share of NOx emission reduction potential attributable to international shipping is expected to increase in the future.

    One instrument is a NOx emission control area (NECA) in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea; the other is a combination of NECA and a NOx levy with revenues going back to shipping companies as subsidy for NOx abatement uptake. Both instruments are assumed to be in force in 2021. In the analysis, we operate with three main scenarios: • Baseline (no additional policy instruments) • NECA • NECA+Levy&fund

    In the NECA scenario we assume that no extra use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is introduced and that the Tier III requirements for marine gasoil (MGO) fuelled vessels are fulfilled by installing selective catalytic reduction (SCR). In the NECA+Levy&fund scenario it is further assumed that Tier 0 vessels will not install SCR but pay levy instead, and that 75 per cent of Tier I and Tier II vessels will take up retrofit SCR, given that it is more profitable than paying the levy.

    Total abatement costs have been assessed from the socio-economic perspective, implying low interest rate and long investment lifetime at investment costs’ annualization. Health benefits have been estimated with the GAINS and the Alpha-RiskPoll models. The method for estimating health benefits is the same as applied in cost-benefit analyses supporting the European Commission’s work on the air pollution abatement strategies and the work of the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
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  • 29.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Jerksjö, Martin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Bäckström, Sebastian
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Energy demand impacts of Long Heavy Duty Vehicles -Analysis of possible ways to introduce the effects of long vehicles into the GAINS model2014Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    The objective of this study was to explore possible approaches to explicitly include the use of long heavy duty vehicles (vehicles with a total weight over 40 ton and a total length over 18.75 meter) as an energy efficiency measure in the GAINS model, to assess their efficiency in terms of transport work (ton-kilometres) and traffic work (vehicle-kilometres), and to provide a basis for the analysis of the emission mitigation potential with respect to this vehicle category, currently not distinguished in the model. Potential substitution of long heavy duty vehicles with conventional European vehicles for goods transportation in Sweden was modelled and analysed. Calculation results indicated that one conventional European vehicle would consume 22 per cent less fuel per traffic work but 30 per cent more fuel per transport work than one long heavy duty vehicle. As a net effect, the total fuel consumption of heavy duty trucks would increase by 24 percent if long heavy duty vehicles were withdrawn. For the Swedish conditions represented in this analysis, the use of long heavy duty vehicles appears to be more fuel efficient than to use conventional EU vehicles. The main conclusions of this study is that it is possible to develop an integrated assessment model method for presenting long heavy duty vehicles as a fuel efficiency option in the transport sector, but that the benefit of the option is dependent on assumptions in the input data. Improved system understanding, statistical data, and scenarios would be needed for representation of long heavy duty vehicles as a general fuel efficiency option in future analyses.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 30.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Enabling Russian use of air pollution policy models2013Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 31.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Estimating the potential of incremental behavioural changes to reduce Swedish emissions of NEC Directive air pollutants2019Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Following EU regulations, Sweden needs to reduce 2005 emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, non-methane volatile organic compounds, ammonia and fine particulate matter with 22, 66, 36, 17, and 19% by 2030, and largest efforts are needed to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions. However, since the targets are ambitious and the time frame is short, there is a risk that some of the already proposed efforts will be inadequate. It is therefore useful to estimate the emission reduction potential from an implementation of behavioral change measures.

    The analysis was done in several steps. From an overview of the literature 10 measures were selected for analysis. After this, the national potential of the measures was estimated through re-calculations of the emission scenarios supporting the official Swedish emission projections.

    The current data quality only allows for the results to be considered best available estimates. Given this caveat the analysis shows that the measures could contribute with 12-24% of the required additional nitrogen oxide emission reductions in 2030. If all measures would be implemented emissions of carbon dioxide (biogenic and fossil) could be reduced by 2-4 Mtonne. The report also presents several knowledge gaps that needs to be considered prior to any governmental action.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 32.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Identifying the total costs and benefits of products2015Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    Since the 1980s it has become commonplace for companies to monitor and report environmental impacts of their activities. In parallel, the progress of the research discipline environmental economics has enabled better accessibility to cost estimates of environmental impacts (monetization). These developments lead to opportunities for companies to change product development and innovation patterns. This research programme aims to explore the requirements needed for realizing this specific opportunity.

    The purpose of this issue brief is to provide an overview of the current situation for key questions such as whether a corporation should invest time and money, already in the innovation and product development phase, to monetize environmental and social impacts associated with production of products and services. The issue brief doesn’t discuss whether data on environmental and social impacts should be produced or not, rather the sole focus is on whether monetization of these data should be performed at a company-level or not. With the help of available knowledge from existing literature and interviews performed by the project group we are, in this issue brief, presenting our view on the rationale for companies to already in their product innovation and development phase integrate environmental and social costs.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 33.
    Åström, Stefan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Potentiell påverkan på luftföroreningsutsläpp av Miljömålsberedningens klimatstrategi2018Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    I juni 2016 publicerade Miljömålsberedningen ett förslag till en ny klimat- och luftvårdsstrategi (SOU 2016:47). Delar av denna strategi användes i juni 2017 som grund för ett svenskt ramverk för klimatpolitik, inklusive nya klimatmål och en ny klimatlagstiftning. I strategin lades det också fram förslag på styrmedel och åtgärder för att nå klimatmålen. Det klargjordes emellertid inte vilka potentiella effekter dessa mål och förslag skulle ge på utsläpp av de luftföroreningar som kan påverkas indirekt av klimatpolitik, såsom kväveoxider (NOx), små partiklar (PM2,5) och flyktiga organiska kolväten (NMVOC).

    I och med att klimatstrategin i många delar inte specificerar hur föreslagna klimatmål ska uppnås går det inte att ge några precisa svar på hur utsläppen av luftföroreningar påverkas. Effekten på utsläpp av luftföroreningar beror på vilken klimatpolitik som faktiskt kommer att genomföras, varför ett antal olika scenarier tagits fram. Dessa kvantifierar hur klimatstrategin kan påverka utsläpp av luftföroreningar utifrån olika antaganden om hur klimatstrategins mål och delmål nås, och beaktar att data över historiska utsläpp och utsläppsprognoser varierar. Basen för scenarierna är en förenklad dekompositionsanalys av de data som använts för att göra den svenska prognosen för luftföroreningar. Separata utsläppsscenarier skapades för sektorerna: el- och värmeproduktion (sex scenarier), industriell produktion (sju scenarier) och transporter (26 scenarier).

    Resultaten av scenarierna för år 2030 visar att genomförande av klimatstrategins åtgärder kan leda till minskade NOx-utsläpp med ca 1,5 – 3 kton/år, 0 – 0,2 kton/år i minskade PM2,5-utsläpp, samt att de riskerar höja utsläpp av NMVOC med ca 1 – 2 kton/år i jämförelse med prognosticerade utsläpp år 2030. De flesta klimatpolitiska åtgärderna leder till minskade utsläpp av luftföroreningar, men t.ex. kan en ökad andel bensin/el-hybrider leda till en viss ökning av NMVOC-utsläpp. Resultaten tydliggör också det gap som finns mellan transportsektorns övergripande klimatmål och strategins förslag till styrmedel och åtgärder för att nå detta mål. Ett hypotetiskt scenario – i vilket klimatmålet för transportsektorn skulle nås genom samma typ av åtgärder men mer långt gångna – visar att 2030 års utsläpp av NOx, PM2,5 och NMVOC skulle kunna minska med 4 - 6, 0,4 - 0,7 respektive 0,5 - 0,9 kton/år. Vidare kan utsläppsminskningar som sker i svenska verksamheter som omfattas av EU:s utsläppshandelssystem för växthusgaser minska utsläppen av luftföroreningar med upp till 1,5, 0,1 och 1 kton/år av NOx, PM2,5 och NMVOC.

    Resultaten tyder på att ett framgångsrikt genomförande av klimatstrategin kan hjälpa Sverige att nå mer än hälften av det NOx-krav som ställs på Sverige i NEC-direktivet, och därmed att dedikerade ansträngningar i luftföroreningspolitiken rimligtvis behövs. Även en del av de ytterligare kraven på utsläppsminskningar för PM2,5 och NMVOC torde fångas upp genom klimatstrategin. Studien klargör också behovet av fortsatt utveckling av klimatpolitiken inom transportsektorn, eftersom de specificerade åtgärderna är otillräckliga för att nå klimatstrategins slutliga mål. Den eventuella övergången till biobränslen i alla sektorer och ökad användning av bensindrivna hybridfordon riskerar båda att orsaka konflikter mellan klimatpolitik och luftföroreningspolitik i Sverige. För luftföroreningsmålen är det också viktigt att nationella utsläppsminskningar i EU-ETS-systemet realiseras som förväntat.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
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  • 34.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Bäckström, Sebastian
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Jerksjö, Martin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Fridell, Erik
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Åtgärder för att minska utsläpp av utsläpp av NOx och PM2,5 från den svenska transportsektorn 2025 - potential och kostnader2013Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    År 2013 är EU:s ”luftår”. Under detta år ser EU över den Tematiska Strategin för Luftföroreningar (TSAP) och reviderar inom detta EU:s utsläppstaksdirektiv (NEC). Denna rapport är framtagen för att ge svenskt underlag kring åtgärdspotential och åtgärdskostnader för utsläppsminskningar av NOx och PM2,5 i den svenska transportsektorn år 2025. Analyserna genomfördes genom att utgå från officiella prognoser för aktivitet och utsläpp från vägtransporter och arbetsmaskiner. Ur litteratur söktes sedan efter möjliga åtgärder som skulle kunna minska utsläpp ytterligare. Information om åtgärder och dess effekt på prognoserna kvantifierades och resulterande utsläpp samt åtgärdskostnader beräknades. Endast ett urval av åtgärder kunde analyseras inom den tillgängliga projekttiden. Analysens resultat byggde på några viktiga förutsättningar: utsläpp enligt utsläppskrav motsvarar faktiska utsläpp; förbättring av bränsleeffektivitet sker enligt prognos; analyserade åtgärder som medförde ändringar i fordons- och maskinbestånd minskar antalet gamla fordon mest; det är hypotetiskt möjligt att ändra utsläppskrav så att energieffektivisering kan följas av lägre NOx och PM2,5-utsläpp. Den åtgärd som föreföll mest lovande för utsläppsminskning av NOx var en föryngring av lastbilsflottan. Hybridisering av arbetsmaskiner var visserligen mer kostnadseffektivt men har till 2025 en mycket liten potential. Då nya personbilar antas bli mer energieffektiva än nuvarande, och dessutom ha lägre utsläpp av NOx och PM2,5 tydde analyserna på att det vore fördelaktigt med styrmedel som forcerar föryngring av personbilsflottan till 2025.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 35.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Gustafsson, Tomas
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Lindblad, Maria
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kindbom, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Estimating air pollution emission abatement potential in Sweden 20302013Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    The two principal aims with this project was to adjust the discrepancy between Swedish official air pollution emission projections and scenarios for Sweden developed by other international institutions, and to analyse the emission abatement potential in Sweden by 2030. Data used to support the Swedish official emission projections was collected and reformatted to enable a comparison with scenario data for Swedish emissions developed by IIASA. The results of this comparison were discussed with IIASA during the bilateral consultation carried out as a part of the on-going revision of the EU Thematic Strategy for Air Pollution. In parallel to this consultation, the potential for further emission abatement in Sweden by 2030 was analysed by interviewing representatives of power plants and large industrial facilities. The comparison with IIASA emission scenarios for Sweden identified that much of the differences between Swedish projections and IIASA emission scenarios originate from the transport sector, small scale domestic combustion in households, as well as from burning of agricultural waste. The potential for NOx emission abatement was estimated for the sectors: power plants; refineries; pulp & paper industries; and the iron & steel industry. If all plants in these sectors were to use the best available technology in 2030, NOx emissions could be reduced by some 13 kton NOx, or ?38% of the 35 kton emissions projected from these sectors by 2030. Abatement costs could in this project only be estimated for 2.3 kton. For these, the abatement cost would be ?170 million Swedish crowns per year.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 36.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Hildén, Mikael
    Matthews, Bradley
    Elements in the policy landscape for action on black carbon in the Arctic: Supporting material to the EUA-BCA report Enhancing the reduction of black carbon emissions to protect the Arctic: Mapping the policy landscape of national, regional and international actions2021Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of this report is to summarise information about relevant policy actions to reduce black carbon emissions from key polluting sectors, as well as options to better monitor how different initiatives affect black carbon emissions and their environmental and health effects. Several relevant policy areas are identified – In situ observations of black carbon in the Arctic, black carbon emission inventories, Gas flaring, Small-scale domestic heating, Shipping, On-and off-road engines, and Open biomass burning. Within these areas, possible actions are described in detail and presented in terms of their time horizon, societal impact, jurisdictional scope and relevant policy fora. 

     The presented actions can act as a reference list of options for interested policymakers, synthesising existing knowledge about relevant policy actions rather than giving prescriptive recommendations on which of them to implement.

     This report serves as a background document to the EUA-BCA Policy landscape report that informs on possible ways to implement these actions in practice and clarify how enhanced international cooperation would contribute to actions in the key areas.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 37.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    J.A. Johansson, Daniel
    The choice of climate metric is of limited importance when ranking options for abatement of near-term climate forcers2019Inngår i: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 38.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Johansson, Daniel
    The choice of climate metric is of limited importance when ranking options for abatement of near-term climate forcers2019Inngår i: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 39.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kindbom, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    EUA-BCA   Stakeholder Analysis Report2021Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The stakeholder analysis was done to identify which stakeholders would be important in the process to Increase coordination of Arctic black carbon policies and to some extent to Facilitate early emission reductions of black carbon affecting the Arctic. The analysis included 95 Arctic-relevant stakeholders, categorised in six groups: Intergovernmental organisations, National authorities, Indigenous people’s organisations, Expert and working groups, Non-governmental organisations, and Industry. 

     The analysis supporting the results above was made by quantitatively ranking each stakeholder over three dimensions: Power, Interest, and Network capacity. The stakeholder analysis indicates that there are some stakeholders that appear more important to include in the process to increase coordination of Arctic black carbon policies and to facilitate early emission reduction of black carbon affecting the Arctic.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 40.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Källmark, Lovisa
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Grennfelt, Peringe
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet. IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet AB.
    European and Central Asian Actions on Air Quality: A regional summary of emission trends, policies, and programs to reduce air pollution2021Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The report provides detailed information on emission trends and European actions on air quality during 2016-2020, in support of the second UNEP global summary report of policies and programmes to reduce air pollution. The pollutants in focus are sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, non-methane volatile organic compounds, ammonia, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). 

    Thanks to the continued strengthening of policies developed under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, EU policies and legislation, as well as national legislations, emissions of most monitored air pollutants have decreased. Since 2010, this trend has continued in Western, Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe. Emissions are however increasing in Central Asian countries. Looking at the entire European and Central Asian region covered in this report, there is one pollutant that stands out: ammonia. Ammonia emissions have in all sub-regions increased during 2010-2017, and there is no sign of decline.

    The EU member states and Norway, UK and Switzerland, with the largest past emission reductions, are also those with well-developed air quality monitoring and assessment infrastructure. In addition, these countries report the largest portfolio of further actions to reduce emissions in a cost-effective manner, including investments in energy efficiency improvements as well as in clean technologies. Awareness and progress in efforts to improve air quality assessment infrastructures in Eastern and South Eastern Europe as well as Central Asia are improving, and there are several examples of knowledge-sharing initiatives and capacity building efforts.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 41.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Källmark, Lovisa
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Grennfelt, Peringe
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Меры по обеспечению качества воздуха в Европе и Центральной Азии: Региональный обзор трендов выбросов, стратегий и программ по снижению загрязнения воздуха2021Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [ru]

    В докладе представлена детальная информация относительно трендов выбросов и мер по обеспечению качества воздуха в Европе за период 2016-2020 в поддержку второго глобального обзора ЮНЕП стратегий и программ по снижению загрязнения воздуха. Рассматриваемые в докладе загрязнители – диоксид серы, оксиды азота, неметановые летучие органические соединения, аммиак и мелкодисперсные твердые частицы (PM2.5).

    Благодаря продолжающемуся усилению стратегий, разработанных в рамках Конвенции ЕЭК ООН о Трансграничном Загрязнении Воздуха на Большие Расстояния (КТЗВБР), стратегиям и законодательству ЕС, а также национальным законодательствам, выбросы большинства загрязнителей снизились. Этот тренд продолжается и после 2010 года в странах Западной, Центральной, Восточной и Юго-Восточной Европы. Выбросы однако растут в странах Центральной Азии. Во всем общеевропейском регионе, рассматриваемом в рамках данного доклада, можно выделить один загрязнитель, отличающийся трендом от остальных – аммиак. Выбросы аммиака в период 2010-2017 возросли во всех под-регионах, и признаков снижения пока не наблюдается. 

    Страны-члены ЕС, Норвегия, Великобритания и Швейцария, являясь странами с наиболее заметными снижениями выбросов в прошлом, обладают хорошо развитой инфраструктурой мониторинга и оценки качества воздуха. Кроме того, по результатам опроса, в этих странах наиболее разнообразно портфолио дальнейших мер по затратно-эффективному снижению выбросов, включая инвестиции в повышение энергоэффективности и в чистые технологии. В странах Юго-Восточной Европы, Восточной Европы и Центральной Азии наблюдается рост осведомленности и активизация усилий по улучшению инфраструктуры оценки качества воздуха; имеются хорошие примеры инициатив по обмену опытом и знаниями и укреплению потенциала.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 42.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Lindblad, Maria
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kan Sverige uppfylla miljömålspreciseringar för försurning och övergödning - Indikationer från ambitiösa utsläppsscenarier i utvalda Europeiska länder2014Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    I denna rapport presenteras resultat från en studie över vägar framåt för att Sverige skall kunna närma sig miljömålen Bara naturlig försurning och Ingen övergödning. Studien har haft två syften: 1. Analysera vilka Europiska utsläppsminskningar som skulle leda till att miljömålen nås till senast 2030.     a. För målet Bara naturlig försurning beaktade studien miljömålsspecificeringen:  ”Påverkan genom atmosfäriskt nedfall”     b. För målet Ingen övergödning beaktade studien endast deposition av övergödande kväve över skogsmark. Detta kopplar främst till miljömålsspecificeringen: ”Påverkan på landmiljön” 2. Analysera i vilka länder och i vilka sektorer åtgärder för att minska utsläpp av försurande och övergödande ämnen skulle ge störst effekt. Med bas i det mest ambitiösa tillgängliga utsläppsscenariot för EU:s länder beräknades ytterligare utsläppsminskningar i de m.a.p. utsläpp av svavel och kväve viktigaste sektorerna. Dessa minskningar genomfördes i de Europeiska länder som år 2010 var de viktigaste för försurande och övergödande deposition över Sverige. Utsläppsminskningarna simulerades för år 2020 och 2030 som konsekvenser av mycket kraftiga ändringar i energisystemet, i transportsystemet och i jordbrukssektorn. Därefter beräknades och diskuterades åtföljande påverkan på försurning och övergödning i Sverige. För att identifiera de sektorer i vilka utsläppsminskningar skulle kunna ge mest nytta för de svenska miljömålen analyserades scenarierna i underlagsrapporter framtagna till den pågående revideringen av EU:s tematiska strategi för luftföroreningar. Analysen fokuserade på de länder som kan anses viktigast för försurande och övergödande deposition över Sverige, och identifierade sektorer med störst beräknade framtida utsläpp och störst potential för utsläppsrening. Det samlade intrycket från denna studie är att det svenska miljömålet Bara naturlig försurning inte kommer kunna nås genom Europeiska utsläppsminskningar av svaveldioxid (SO2), kväveoxid (NOx), och ammoniak (NH3) till år 2030, givet dagens ekonomiska utvecklingstrender. Detta mycket på grund av att de idag försurade avrinningsområdena till relativt stor andel utgörs av områden med mycket hög känslighet för svaveldeposition, och att kriteriet för återhämtning i sjöar som används vid beräkning av kritisk belastning är relativt strikt, i jämförelse med alternativa beräkningssätt. Det kan vara befogat att vidare analysera vilka mått och indikatorer som bör användas vid analyser av försurning i framtiden. Resultaten från denna studie tyder på att det svenska miljömålet Ingen övergödning har potential att kunna nås genom Europeiska utsläppsminskningar. Men detta kommer kräva mycket kraftiga omställningar av den Europeiska jordbrukssektorn, både vad avser användning av reningstekniker och faktisk produktion inom jordbrukssektorn. Av de länder som har stor påverkan på svensk deposition av svavel beräknas högst utsläppsreningspotential finnas i sektorerna Industriell förbränning, Energi, och Hushåll & Service år 2020 och 2030. Energisektorn beräknas ha högst utsläpp. För utsläppsminskning av NOx är det utsläppsrening i sektorerna Energi och Industriell förbränning som har störst teknisk utsläppsreningspotential om man bortser från den internationella sjöfarten. För utsläpp av NH3 är det utsläpp från jordbrukssektorn som fortsätter dominera totalt i Europa.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 43.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Lindblad, Maria
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kindbom, Karin
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Compilation of data for Sweden to the GAINS model2013Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    The purpose with the project was to create a robust system for development of national emission scenarios in the GAINS model that are consistent with Swedish official emission inventories and emission projections. Such a system required a structured compilation of information sources as well as a systematic method for re-formatting data. The basis for the data compilation was the data used in the official Swedish emission inventory and emission projections. These data sometimes needed to be complemented for more detailed information from official sources such as the Swedish Transport Administration, Swedish Energy Agency, and the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. Following this a data conversion tool was developed. After introducing Swedish data and projections into the GAINS model we could compare and analyse differences between emissions in the Swedish scenario in the GAINS model and the emissions in the official Swedish national reporting. The results showed that emissions were suitably aligned for SO2, while NOx and PM2.5 emissions differed. All in all, this project describes the process of developing a scenario for Sweden in the GAINS model based on national data. Special attention, and a systematic approach, is needed in the re-aggregation and re-allocation of fuels and sectors from a Swedish format to a GAINS model format. Further development of the approach used during re-allocation and re-aggregation of data is needed, as well as increased national knowledge regarding the current and expected use of air pollution emission control technologies in Sweden.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 44.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Lindblad, Maria
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Särnholm, Erik
    Söderblom, Johan
    Energy efficiency improvements in the European Household and Service sector- data inventory to the GAINS model2010Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Further improvements in the energy performance of buildings and equipment are important to Europe as measures to reduce energy demand as well as greenhouse gas emissions. For both the residential sector and the service sector, energy needed for heating and ventilation, as well as air conditioning represents the largest share of all energy needs in these sectors, and there are large potentials for further improvements in the energy performance in the climate envelope of most European houses and buildings. The International Institute for Applied System Analysis has developed the Integrated Assessment Model GAINS. The GAINS models' most recent methodology updates allow for a detailed description of the residential and commercial sector with energy use, potential for energy demand reduction as well as energy demand reduction costs. To implement the new detailed methodology for the European version of the GAINS model, a data inventory is needed. In this study, detailed data on energy use, building stocks and control technologies have been compiled and converted into the format suitable for the GAINS model. Bottom-up projections have been calibrated with the EU energy projections currently used as a European baseline in the GAINS model for the EU-27 countries as well as Norway, Switzerland and Turkey.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 45.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Lovisa Andersson, Sofia
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Kieseweeter, Gregor
    Schöpp, Wolfgang
    Sander, Robert
    Investment perspectives on costs for air pollution control affect the optimal use of emission control measures2019Inngår i: Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, ISSN 1618-954X, E-ISSN 1618-9558Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 46.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Morozova, Irina
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Tsyro, Svetlana
    Ignateva, Yulia
    Volkova, Kristina
    Valiyaveetil, Semeena
    Tohka, Antti
    Heyes, Chris
    Cofala, Janusz
    Schöpp, Wolfgang
    Sander, Robert
    Lindblad, Maria
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Capacity building on decision support for air pollution policies – results from Nordic-Russian co-operation2013Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    In 2010 the Nordic Council of Ministers initiated a research project with the aims to enable capacity building on the EMEP/MSC-W model, expand data inventories in the Russian Federation, and to develop a Russian version of the GAINS model. The project activities were: Identification of regions to be modelled; EMEP/MSC-W model calculations and capacity building; GAINS model development and adaptation; Emissions & Data inventories and consistency checks; GAINS model scenario analysis. The project resulted in an updated GAINS Russia model, regionalised and sector-specific emission inventories, region-specific source-receptor calculations, and EMEP/MSC-W model training activities. Finally, regionalised emission abatement scenarios were analysed and showed large differences between regions in terms of potential emission reductions and emission abatement costs. The Russian Federation has now established analytical capacity related to the GAINS and EMEP/MSC-W models, the GAINS Russia model has been updated and improved, and a process for preparing input data inventories has been initiated. The Russian Federation can now launch independent research on cost effective emission reductions in the Russian Federation and analyse consequences on human health and the environment.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 47.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Parsmo, Rasmus
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Merelli, Luca
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Hult, Cecilia
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Mawdsley, Ingrid
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Styrmedel för minskade NOX-utsläpp från vägtrafik, inrikes sjöfart och fiskefartyg: Utsläppseffekter, kostnader och nyttor år 20302022Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Enligt det senaste referensscenariot för Sveriges utsläpp av kväveoxider (NOX) till 2030 kommer Sverige överskrida taket i det andra NEC-direktivet om inte ytterligare åtgärder tas. Utsläppen från vägtrafik, inrikes sjöfart och fiske står enligt referensscenariot för en betydande del av Sveriges NOX-utsläpp år 2030, och här finns också potential för ytterligare utsläppsminskningar.

     

    Syftet med den här studien var att undersöka vilka styrmedel som är mest effektiva för att minska utsläppen av NOX från vägtrafik, inrikes sjöfart och fiskefartyg till år 2030 samt undersöka hur kostnadseffektiva styrmedlen är. Syftet var också att undersöka hur styrmedlen påverkar utsläppen av PM2.5 och CO2. Åtta styrmedel med syfte att minska utsläpp inom vägtrafiksektorn samt tre styrmedel med syfte att minska utsläpp inom inrikes sjöfart och från fiskefartyg studerades.

     

    Det styrmedel för vägtrafik som uppvisar lägst kostnad per reduktion av kg NOX samt god kostnadseffektivitet är införandet av skärpta CO2-krav på EU-nivå enligt det förslag som ligger. Detta styrmedel resulterar enligt studien även i betydande utsläppsminskningar av NOX och CO2. Övriga styrmedel för vägtrafik som är kostnadseffektiva är premien för etanolkonvertering, kilometerskatt för tunga fordon och miljödifferentierad trängselavgift. Inget av dessa styrmedel leder till betydande NOX-utsläppsminskningar. Det är osäkert om skrotningspremien, som resulterar i en utsläppsminskning av NOX på ca 400 ton, är kostnadseffektiv.

    Euro 7/VII-krav för lätta respektive tunga fordon resulterar visserligen i stora utsläppsminskningar av NOX år 2030, men detta styrmedel har höga enhetskostnader per reducerat kg NOX. Det är inte heller kostnadseffektivt då nytto/kostnadskvoten är långt under 1, dvs. kostnaderna överstiger nyttorna.

     

    För inrikes sjöfart och fiskefartyg visar studien att samtliga studerade styrmedel har potential att leda till betydande utsläppsminskningar till år 2030, med låga kostnader per kg minskad NOX och hög kostnadseffektivitet. Av de åtgärder som följer av respektive styrmedel har efterinstallation av SCR bäst effekt på NOX-utsläppen. 

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 48.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Roth, Susanna
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Wranne, Jonatan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Jelse, Kristian
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Lindblad, Maria
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Food Consumption Choices and Climate Change2013Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    This report presents the results from an ENTWINED ( www.entwined.se ) analysis of the climate impact associated with food consumption choices, with special focus on locally produced food. The purpose of the analysis was to analyze and compare the relative climate benefits of locally grown food with other consumption choices available to food consumers, and to propose policies that would enable a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from food consumption. The results showed inter alia that a vegetarian and seasonally adjusted grocery bag had the lowest emissions of GHG of the bags studied. For non-vegetarian bags, the amount of beef in the bag was very influential for the level of GHG emissions. The impact of locally grown food choices was relatively small, and in one case of the sensitivity analysis negligible. Concluding results show that from a climate perspective it is more important to focus on what we eat rather than whether it is locally grown, has been transported a long distance, or how the food item was produced.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 49.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Wisell, Tomas
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Lindblad, Maria
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Roth, Anders
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Konsekvensanalys av utvalda åtgärder för att minska utsläpp till luft2016Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet har på uppdrag av Miljömålsberedningen beräknat möjlig påverkan på utsläpp till luft och åtgärdskostnader av följande åtgärder.

    Vägtransport: 1. Höjd kvotplikt avseende biodrivmedel för vägtransporter (införande år 2019) 2. Bonus-malus-differentierad registreringsskatt för personbilar (införande år 2018) 3. Premie för lågutsläppande lastbil/buss (införande år 2018) 4. Analys av luftföroreningseffekten vid Trafikverkets klimatscenario (införande enligt Trafikverkets klimatscenario i FFF-utredningen)

    Arbetsmaskiner: 5. Arbetsmaskinspremie för inhandling av lågutsläppande arbetsmaskiner (införande år 2018)

    Småskalig vedeldning: 6. Tidigareläggande av EU:s ekodesignkrav för pannor och kaminer från 2020 resp. 2022 till 2017 resp. 2018 7. Förbud mot installation av eldningsutrustning som inte uppfyller EU:s ekodesignkrav (införande år 2017) 8. Skrotningspremie för pannor/kaminer med dåliga miljöegenskaper (införande år 2017) Åtgärderna analyserades med avseende på påverkan på utsläpp av luftföroreningar och koldioxid (CO2) samt påverkan på åtgärdskostnader för att minska utsläpp. Specifik metod, underlag och resultat varierade beroende på vilken åtgärd som analyserades. De luftföroreningar som var i fokus var kväveoxider (NOx), fina partiklar (PM2,5), kolmonoxid (CO) samt flyktiga organiska ämnen (NMVOC). Åtgärdskostnader och effekter på CO2 har inte analyserats för samtliga åtgärder.

    Huvudbudskapet från analyserna utförda inom ramen för detta uppdrag är att: • Bäst effekt gällande både klimat och luftföroreningar erhålls vid en större omställning av hela transportsystemet. En sådan omställning förutsätter då, i enlighet med Trafikverkets klimatscenario, en kombination av olika åtgärder, både med avseende på trafikminskande åtgärder och på rena teknikstimulerande reformer (såsom eldrivna fordon). • Elektrifiering kan komma ha påtaglig effekt på utsläpp av luftföroreningar. • Vissa klimatåtgärder, som biodrivmedel, kan ge små eller inga effekter med avseende på luftföroreningar. Gällande en eventuellt höjd kvotplikt är det dock en neutral åtgärd för stadsbudgeten. • En eventuell effekt av nyköpspremier för lastbilar och stora arbetsmaskiner på utsläpp år 2030 påverkas främst av hur många gamla fordon som kommer vara i bruk år 2030. Våra analyser tyder alltså på att skrotning av riktigt gamla lastbilar och maskiner är viktigare för utsläpp av luftföroreningar än att öka andelen nya fordon och maskiner. • Samma situation gäller för småskalig vedeldning, där en skrotning av mycket gamla enheter skulle få stor effekt på utsläpp av PM2,5 år 2030.

    This report is only available in Swedish. English summary is available in the report.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
  • 50.
    Åström, Stefan
    et al.
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Yaramenka, Katarina
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Blomgren, Håkan
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Compilation of emission factors for biofuels into the GAINS model script2011Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    The use of ethanol and biodiesel in the transport sector is increasing in line with the latest legislation, stimulating use of biofuels in efforts to reduce CO2 emissions. At the same time, the aspect of effects from use of biofuel on air quality is a rather contradictory issue, which is currently being studied in many countries. The GAINS model, developed by the International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA) and widely used to provide support to air quality policies, does not provide a possibility to consider emission factors for biofuels used in the transport sector (with exception for CO2).The objective of this study is to link the biofuel share in the transport sector to available emission factors for biofuels, to provide a new emission calculation equation based on this linkage (emissions as a function of biofuel use), to introduce the equation into the GAINS Sweden script, and to compare the results obtained for several scenarios for the Swedish transport sector with different assumed levels of biofuel use. An equation, taking into consideration lower emission factors for NOx and PM from ethanol-fuelled passenger cars, has been derived and successfully compiled into the GAINS Sweden script. A generic equation applicable to other pollutants has also been derived. Calculation results indicate that introducing emission factors for biofuels does not have a significant effect on air pollutant emissions from the transport sector in Sweden. Full replacement of gasoline with ethanol for passenger cars in 2020 reduces emissions of NOx by 1.48 kt and PM by 0.06 kt, according to the baseline scenario (2009). An important prerequisite for obtaining reliable emission results in the GIAINS model is properly quantified emission factors. Further research on emission factors for biofuels is needed since currently used factors are not commonly accepted. The study has been performed within the SCARP research program.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    FULLTEXT01
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