IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

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  • 1.
    Karlsen, Reinert Huseby
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Westerberg, Ida
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Vattenföringsmätningar i Liukattijoki och Mertaseno. Årsrapport för 20202021Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    På uppdrag av LKAB mäter IVL vattenföring vid fem mätstationer i anslutning till LKAB:s gruvverksamhet i Svappavaara och Mertainen. I Svappavaaraområdet finns sedan 2012 två mätstationer i vattendraget Liukattijoki samt en mätstation vid utloppet från sjön Syväjärvi sedan 2019, och i Mertainenområdet finns sedan 2013 två mätstationer i vattendraget Mertaseno.

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  • 2.
    Karlsson, Anja
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Westerberg, Ida
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Green tools for urban climate adaptation - GreenClimeAdapt2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report is only available in Engliish.

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  • 3.
    Olshammar, Mikael
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Westerberg, Ida
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Slutrapport för projektet "Verktyg och handlingsplan för kostnadseffektiva åtgärder för att minska övergödningen i Magelungen, Drevviken och Flaten"2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Syftet med projektet har varit att ta fram underlag till en handlingsplan med kostnadseffektiva åtgärder för att minska halterna av fosfor i Magelungen från höga till måttliga höga halter och i Drevviken från mycket höga till höga halter. För Flaten var målsättningen att bibehålla de numera låga fosforhalterna efter den större restaureringsinsatsen år 2000. Utifrån mätdata, kartmaterial samt klimatdata har en källfördelningsmodell byggts upp mha modellverktyget SWAT och databasen Watshman. Modelleringen av fosfor visar att enskilda avlopp samt vägar står för en stor del av belastningen på sjöarna inom Tyresåns sjösystem även om variationen mellan sjöarna är stor. En handlingsplan för att uppnå uppsatta mål för Magelungen och Drevviken bör därför fokusera på att reducera antalet enskilda avlopp eller förbättra reningen för dessa. Ytterligare dagvattenrening kan också vara en kostnadseffektiv metod att minska fosforbelastningen. För att uppnå uppsatta mål för sjöarna Magelungen och Drevviken räcker det nog dock inte med åtgärder i avrinningsområdena utan även direkt åtgärder i sjöarna kommer krävas. Flaten bedöms dock kunna bevara sin goda status med de åtgärder som redan är planerade.

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  • 4.
    Westerberg, Ida
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Can climate variability information constrain a hydrological model for an ungauged Costa Rican catchment?2018In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 32, p. 830–846-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Long‐term hydrological data are key to understanding catchment behaviour and for decision making within water management and planning. Given the lack of observed data in many regions worldwide, such as Central America, hydrological models are an alternative for reproducing historical streamflow series. Additional types of information — to locally observed discharge — can be used to constrain model parameter uncertainty for ungauged catchments. Given the strong influence that climatic large‐scale processes exert on streamflow variability in the Central American region, we explored the use of climate variability knowledge as process constraints to constrain the simulated discharge uncertainty for a Costa Rican catchment, assumed to be ungauged.

    To reduce model uncertainty, we first rejected parameter relationships that disagreed with our understanding of the system. Then, based on this reduced parameter space, we applied the climate‐based process constraints at long‐term, inter‐annual, and intra‐annual timescales. In the first step, we reduced the initial number of parameters by 52%, and then, we further reduced the number of parameters by 3% with the climate constraints. Finally, we compared the climate‐based constraints with a constraint based on global maps of low‐flow statistics. This latter constraint proved to be more restrictive than those based on climate variability (further reducing the number of parameters by 66% compared with 3%).

    Even so, the climate‐based constraints rejected inconsistent model simulations that were not rejected by the low‐flow statistics constraint. When taken all together, the constraints produced constrained simulation uncertainty bands, and the median simulated discharge followed the observed time series to a similar level as an optimized model. All the constraints were found useful in constraining model uncertainty for an — assumed to be — ungauged basin. This shows that our method is promising for modelling long‐term flow data for ungauged catchments on the Pacific side of Central America and that similar methods can be developed for ungauged basins in other regions where climate variability exerts a strong control on streamflow variability.

  • 5.
    Westerberg, Ida
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Five guidelines for selecting hydrological signatures2017In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, no 31, p. 4757–4761-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hydrological signatures are index values derived from observed or modeled series of hydrological data such as rainfall, flow or soil moisture. They are designed to extract relevant information about rainfall– runoff processes, such as identifying dominant processes, and determining the strength, speed and spatiotemporal variability of the rainfall–runoff response. Hydrological signatures can be compared across catchments to understand spatial variation in runoff processes, and can be compared across time to evaluate hydrological change.

    Most studies use a selection of different signatures to capture different aspects of the catchment response, for example evaluating overall flow distribution as well as high and low flow extremes and flow timing. Such studies often choose their own set of signatures, or may borrow subsets of signatures used in multiple other works. There is little agreement towards a standardized set of hydrological signatures. In this opinion paper we discuss five guidelines to guide signature selection.

  • 6.
    Westerberg, Ida
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example2017In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 62, p. 1705-1713Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis.

    Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.

  • 7.
    Westerberg, Ida
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    The Role of Rating Curve Uncertainty in Real-Time Flood Forecasting2017In: Environmental Science and Technology, ISSN 0013-936X, E-ISSN 1520-5851, no 53, p. 4197-4213Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Data assimilation has been widely tested for flood forecasting, although its use in operational systems is mainly limited to a simple statistical error correction. This can be due to the complexity involved in making more advanced formal assumptions about the nature of the model and measurement errors. Recent advances in the definition of rating curve uncertainty allow estimating a flow measurement error that includes both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties more explicitly and rigorously than in the current practice. The aim of this study is to understand the effect such a more rigorous definition of the flow measurement error has on real-time data assimilation and forecasting.

    This study, therefore, develops a comprehensive probabilistic framework that considers the uncertainty in model forcing data, model structure, and flow observations. Three common data assimilation techniques are evaluated: (1) Autoregressive error correction, (2) Ensemble Kalman Filter, and (3) Regularized Particle Filter, and applied to two locations in the flood-prone Oria catchment in the Basque Country, northern Spain. The results show that, although there is a better match between the uncertain forecasted and uncertain true flows, there is a low sensitivity for the threshold exceedances used to issue flood warnings. This suggests that a standard flow measurement error model, with a spread set to a fixed flow fraction, represents a reasonable trade-off between complexity and realism. Standard models are therefore recommended for operational flood forecasting for sites with well-defined stage-discharge curves that are based on a large range of flow observations.

  • 8.
    Westerberg, Ida
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Uncertainty in hydrological signatures in gauged and ungauged catchments2016In: Environmental Science and Technology, ISSN 0013-936X, E-ISSN 1520-5851, Vol. 52, p. 1847–1865-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Reliable information about hydrological behavior is needed for water-resource management and scientific investigations. Hydrological signatures quantify catchment behavior as index values, and can be predicted for ungauged catchments using a regionalization procedure. The prediction reliability is affected by data uncertainties for the gauged catchments used in prediction and by uncertainties in the regionalization procedure. We quantified signature uncertainty stemming from discharge data uncertainty for 43 UK catchments and propagated these uncertainties in signature regionalization, while accounting for regionalization uncertainty with a weighted-pooling-group approach. Discharge uncertainty was estimated using Monte Carlo sampling of multiple feasible rating curves.

    For each sampled rating curve, a discharge time series was calculated and used in deriving the gauged signature uncertainty distribution. We found that the gauged uncertainty varied with signature type, local measurement conditions and catchment behavior, with the highest uncertainties (median relative uncertainty ±30–40% across all catchments) for signatures measuring high- and low-flow magnitude and dynamics. Our regionalization method allowed assessing the role and relative magnitudes of the gauged and regionalized uncertainty sources in shaping the signature uncertainty distributions predicted for catchments treated as ungauged. We found that 1) if the gauged uncertainties were neglected there was a clear risk of over-conditioning the regionalization inference, e.g. by attributing catchment differences resulting from gauged uncertainty to differences in catchment behavior, and 2) uncertainty in the regionalization results was lower for signatures measuring flow distribution (e.g. mean flow) than flow dynamics (e.g. autocorrelation), and for average flows (and then high flows) compared to low flows.

  • 9.
    Westerberg, Ida
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Blöschl, Günter
    Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) – a community perspective.2019In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 64, no 10Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 10.
    Westerberg, Ida
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Di Baldassarre, G.
    Beven, J.K.
    Coxon, G.
    Krueger, T.
    Response to discussion by Ertsen on Westerberg et al. “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems".2018In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, no 63, p. 13–14-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.

  • 11.
    Westerberg, Ida
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Adaptation of water resources systems to changing society and environment: a statement by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences2017In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We explore how to address the challenges of adaptation of water resources systems under changing conditions by supporting flexible, resilient and low-regret solutions, coupled with on-going monitoring and evaluation. This will require improved understanding of the linkages between biophysical and social aspects in order to better anticipate the possible future co-evolution of water systems and society.

    We also present a call to enhance the dialogue and foster the actions of governments, the international scientific community, research funding agencies and additional stakeholders in order to develop effective solutions to support water resources systems adaptation. Finally, we call the scientific community to a renewed and unified effort to deliver an innovative message to stakeholders.

    Water science is essential to resolve the water crisis, but the effectiveness of solutions depends, inter alia, on the capability of scientists to deliver a new, coherent and technical vision for the future development of water systems.

  • 12.
    Westerberg, Ida
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    E Sikorska-Senoner, Anna
    Viviroli, Daniel
    Vis, Marc
    Seibert, Jan
    Hydrological model calibration with uncertain discharge data2020In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Discharge data used to calibrate and evaluate hydrological models can be highly uncertain and this uncertainty affects the conclusions that we can draw from modelling results. We investigated the role of discharge data uncertainty and its representation in hydrological model calibration to give recommendations on methods to account for data uncertainty. We tested five different representations of discharge data uncertainty in calibrating the HBV-model for three Swiss catchments, ranging from using no information to using full empirical probability distributions for each time step. We developed a new objective function to include discharge data uncertainty, as quantified by these distributions directly in calibration to hydrological time series. This new objective function provided more reliable results than using no data uncertainty or multiple realizations of discharge time series. We recommend using the new objective function in combination with empirical or triangular distributions of the discharge data uncertainty.

  • 13.
    Westerberg, Ida
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Huseby Karlsen, Reinert
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Vattenföringsmätningar i Rakkurijokis avrinningsområde: Årsrapport 20212022Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    IVL mäter vattenföring på uppdrag av LKAB sedan 2016 vid tre stationer inom Rakkurijokis avrinningsområde sydväst om Kiirunavaaragruvan. I denna rapport beskrivs mätmetoder och vattenföringsberäkningar vid de tre stationerna samt vattenföringsdata fram till och med december 2021.

    Vattenföringsberäkningarna som beskrivs i denna rapport har uppdaterats med kalibrering mot nya kontrollmätningar utförda under 2021. Vattenföringen var under januari jämförbar med vinterperioder under de tidigare år som mätningarna pågått, men inte lika låg som under 2019 då vintervattenföringen var som lägst sedan starten på mätningarna. Under februari och mars var sedan vattenföringen hög i förhållande till tidigare år. Vårfloden 2021 var mycket kraftig efter en snörik vinter och snabb snösmältning, med liknande högflöden som under 2020 och en kulmen som inträffade under tredje veckan i maj. Medelvattenföringen under maj var den högsta som hittills har uppmätts. Under sommaren var vattenföringen till stor del avtagande och medelvattenföringen i juli 2021 var den lägsta sommarvattenföringen som har uppmätts sedan mätningarna påbörjades 2016. Under hösten steg vattenföringen och var i oktober och november högre än tidigare år.

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  • 14.
    Westerberg, Ida
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Karlsen, Reinert Huseby
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Vattenföringsmätningar i Liukattijoki och Mertaseno Årsrapport 20172018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Vattenföringsmätningar i Liukattijoki och Mertaseno åt LKAB år 2017

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  • 15.
    Westerberg, Ida
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Kiang, J.
    Gazoorian, C.
    McMillan, H.
    Coxon, G.
    Le Cos, J.
    Belleville, A.
    Sevrez, D.
    Sikorska, A.E.
    Petersen-Överleir, A.
    Reitan, T.
    Freer, J.
    Renard, B.
    Mansanarez, V.
    Mason, R.
    A comparison of methods for streamflow uncertainty estimation.2018In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, no 54, p. 7149–7176-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Streamflow time series are commonly derived from stage‐discharge rating curves, but the uncertainty of the rating curve and resulting streamflow series are poorly understood. While different methods to quantify uncertainty in the stage‐discharge relationship exist, there is limited understanding of how uncertainty estimates differ between methods due to different assumptions and methodological choices. We compared uncertainty estimates and stage‐discharge rating curves from seven methods at three river locations of varying hydraulic complexity. Comparison of the estimated uncertainties revealed a wide range of estimates, particularly for high and low flows. At the simplest site on the Isère River (France), full width 95% uncertainties for the different methods ranged from 3 to 17% for median flows. In contrast, uncertainties were much higher and ranged from 41 to 200% for high flows in an extrapolated section of the rating curve at the Mahurangi River (New Zealand) and 28 to 101% for low flows at the Taf River (United Kingdom), where the hydraulic control is unstable at low flows. Differences between methods result from differences in the sources of uncertainty considered, differences in the handling of the time‐varying nature of rating curves, differences in the extent of hydraulic knowledge assumed, and differences in assumptions when extrapolating rating curves above or below the observed gaugings. Ultimately, the selection of an uncertainty method requires a match between user requirements and the assumptions made by the uncertainty method. Given the significant differences in uncertainty estimates between methods, we suggest that a clear statement of uncertainty assumptions be presented alongside streamflow uncertainty estimates.

  • 16.
    Westerberg, Ida
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Mansanarez, V.
    Lam, N.
    W. Lyon, S.
    Rapid Stage‐Discharge Rating Curve Assessment Using Hydraulic Modeling in an Uncertainty Framework.2019In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 55, no 11, p. 9765– 9787-Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 17.
    Westerberg, Ida
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    McMillan, H.K.
    Krueger, I.
    Hydrological data uncertainty and its implications.2018In: WIREs Water, E-ISSN 2049-1948, Vol. e1319, no 5Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hydrologic data are at the core of our understanding of physical hydrologic processes, our simulation models and forecasts of water resources and hazards, and our monitoring of water quantity and quality. However, hydrologic data are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty that can introduce bias and error into our analyses and decision‐making if not properly accounted for. In this article, we summarize five categories of data uncertainty: measurement uncertainty, derived data uncertainty, interpolation uncertainty, scaling uncertainty, and data management uncertainty. Hydrologic data uncertainty magnitudes are typically in the range 10–40%. To quantify data uncertainty, hydrologists should first construct a perceptual model of uncertainty that itemizes uncertainty sources. The magnitude of each source can then be estimated using replicates (repeated, nested or subsampled measurements), or information from the literature (in‐depth uncertainty results from experimental catchments, colocated gauges or method comparisons). Multiple uncertainty sources can be combined using Monte Carlo methods to determine total uncertainty. Data uncertainty analysis improves hydrologic process understanding by enabling robust hypothesis testing and identification of spatial and temporal patterns that relate to true process differences rather than data uncertainty. By quantifying uncertainty in data used for input or evaluation of hydrologic models, we can prevent parameter bias, exclude disinformative data, and enhance model performance evaluation. In water management applications, quantifying data uncertainty can lead to robust risk analysis, reduced costs, and transparent results that improve the trust of the public and water managers.

  • 18.
    Westerberg, Ida
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Persson, Tony
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Undersökning av ämnestransport och uppehållstider i Liukattijoki med fluorescerande spårämne2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Vattenlösliga fluorescerande färgämnen (spårämnen) kan detekteras i extremt låga koncentrationer och användas för att studera uppehållstider, spridning och utspädning av vattenlösliga ämnen i vattendrag. Resultaten från sådana studier kan användas för att utforma åtgärder, tillståndsvillkor och miljöövervakningsstrategier kopplade till utsläpp av vattenlösliga ämnen från olika verksamheter. Den här rapporten beskriver ett spårämnesförsök med det fluorescerande färgämnet Rhodamine WT. Försöket utfördes 7–8 september 2016 längs vattendraget Liukattijoki som är recipient för bräddat vatten från LKAB:s gruvverksamhet i Svappavaara.

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  • 19.
    Westerberg, Ida
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Quesada-Montano, B.
    Wetterhall, F.
    Hidago, H.
    Halldin, S.
    Characterising droughts in Central America with uncertain hydro-meteorological data2019In: Journal of Theoretical and Applied Climatology, ISSN 0177-798X, E-ISSN 1434-4483, Vol. 137, p. 2125-2138Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 20.
    Westerberg, Ida
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Sahlén Zetterberg, Therese
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Stibe, Lars
    Långsiktiga effekter på vattenkemi, öringbestånd och bottefauna efter ask- och kalkbehandling i hela avrinningsområden i brukad skogsmark - utvärdering 13 år efter åtgärder mot försurning2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Nissadalen ligger i ett av Sveriges mest försurningsdrabbade områden. I slutet av 1990-talet var vattendragen i området mycket starkt försurningspåverkade och det befarades att det skulle vara mycket svårt, eller till och med omöjligt, för området att återhämta sig fullt ut. Mot denna bakgrund startade år 1997 EU-Life-projektet "En integrerad strategi för kalkning av avrinningsområden" i Nissadalen. Syftet med projektet var att utveckla och demonstrera en behandlingsmetod som både motverkar effekterna av försurning och påskyndar återhämtning i mark och vatten. Metoden bygger på en engångsbehandling av både fastmark och våtmark, det vill säga behandling av hela avrinningsområdet. Effekten av kalkningsmetoden har sedan försökets start utvärderats genom mätning av vattenkemi, vattenföring och elfiske i bäckar som avvattnar behandlade och obehandlade avrinningsområden samt bottenfaunaundersökningar. Syftet med denna rapport är att utvärdera de långsiktiga effekterna av kalkningsmetoden på vattenkemin i vattendragen, med kort sammanfattning av effekter på djurlivet i två av bäckarna.Resultaten från mätningarna visar att metoden fortfarande är ett kostnadseffektivt sätt att motverka försurat tillstånd jämfört med traditionell ytvatten- eller våtmarkskalkning. Enligt mätningarna verkar det ännu i första hand vara behandlingen av våtmarksområdena som har stått för de positiva effekterna, med först en stark och nästan omedelbar förbättring av de vattenkemiska variabler som påverkas av försurning, och sedan vissa tecken på återförsurning. De enbart fastmarksbehandlade områdena uppvisar en splittrad bild, där ett område har en stark och kontinuerlig försurningsåterhämtning, medan ett annat område visar mycket svaga tecken på återhämtning. Beräkningar av kalkuttransporten ur områdena tyder dock på bidrag från fastmarkskalkningen i flera områden. Även flera av de obehandlade referensområdena visar tecken på återhämtning från försurning. Återhämtningen visar sig genom sjunkande halter oorganiskt aluminium, ökande pH och i vissa områden ökande ANC.Det förbättrade tillståndet efter behandlingen innebar redan första året att ett öringbestånd som fortfarande finns kvar etablerades i en av bäckarna, medan referensbäcken fortfarande är fisktom.  Bottenfaunaundersökningen visade att försurningspåverkan i den kalkade bäcken minskade från stark 1998-2004 till betydlig 2006-2011, medan referensbäcken hade stark försurningspåverkan hela perioden.

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