IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

EU recently decided to include shipping, meaning all intra-European shipping and50% of extra-European voyages, in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)beginning in 2024. This article provides an early assessment of the impacts of theEU ETS on the shipping sector’s potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissionsfor different types of ships. It further examines selected mitigation measures andthe impact on modals split and costs. The study employs a mixed-methodsapproach  combining  quantitative  estimates  (based  on  data  from  the  EUmonitoring,  reporting  and  verification  system)  with  qualitative  data  andinformation from interviews with key actors and from previous literature.

This approach aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of theEU ETS. The inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS is expected to introduce significantincentives to reduce emissions. We estimate that switching to bio-methanol at anemissions allowance price of€90–100/tCO2will be cost-effective for a minor shareof shipping segments (representing about 0.5-5% of all ships), whereas at a priceabove€150/tCO2it could be cost-effective for a considerable share (potentially75%) of ships. In the short term, the costs incurred by the EU ETS will be passed onto transport customers as a surcharge. The increased cost may, unless properlyaddressed, drive carbon leakage. Meanwhile, a modal shift away from shippingmay occur in the roll-on, roll-off(RoRo) and roll-on passenger (RoPax) segmentsdue to direct competition with road and rail transport and the relative ease ofshifting to other modes of transport.

Sjöfarten står inför en stor omställning mot fossilfri drift av fartygen. Denna rapport beskriver styrmedel, tekniska frågor, hinder och scenarier för framtiden relaterat till denna utveckling. Inom IMO (International Maritime Organization) finns mål uppsatta för en minskning av utsläppen av växthusgaser från sjöfarten, styrmedel för kortsiktiga åtgärder finns på plats, främst avseende energieffektivisering, och mer långsiktiga ”market based measures” diskuteras. Inom EU finns ett antal förslag som när de implementeras kommer att få stor inverkan på sjöfarten och dess utsläpp av växthusgaser. I Sverige finns bland annat miljödifferentierade farledsavgifter och ecobonus, men ytterligare kraftfulla styrmedel krävs för att nå de mål om minskning av växthusgasutsläpp som satts upp.

Det finns ett stort antal möjliga framtida hållbara marina bränslen som diskuteras t.ex. ammoniak, metan, metanol, vätgas och syntetisk diesel. I tillägg fortgår utvecklingen med ökad användning av eldrift.

Ett antal scenarier presenteras i rapporten för utvecklingen av bränslemix och utsläpp av växthusgaser för svensk sjöfart, med syftet att analysera olika tänkbara styrmedel. Resultaten visar att el- och gasdrift kan bidra till att minska ökningen av emissioner av växthusgaser, men att ytterligare åtgärder behövs för att åstadkomma en sänkning av emissionerna. I ett scenario analyseras effekterna av de styrmedel som föreslås inom EU:s ”Fit for 55”.

Det finns ett antal hinder som kan försena en utveckling mot ökad hållbarhet inom svensk sjöfart, både för eldrift och förnybara bränslen. Vidare diskuteras styrmedel som kan införas på nationell nivå. Här analyseras styrmedel för ökad användning av el, om en reduktionsplikt kan införas även för marina bränslen, en potentiell CO2-fond, investeringsstöd till ny teknik och bränsleinfrastruktur, klimatkrav på statens flotta, breddad ekobonus samt en vidareutveckling av miljödifferentierade farledsavgifter.

The Nordic countries aim for a carbon-neutral Nordic region. Maritime transport is one of the key remaining sectors to decarbonize and is important from a Nordic perspective due to the relatively large Nordic involvement in this industry. The HOPE project addresses how regional shipping in the Nordic region can do the transition to become fossil-free. The project aims at clarifying the potential role of hydrogen based marine solutions in reducing the Nordic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the centre of the project is a ship concept where a typical RoPax-vessel with operating distances of around 100 nautical miles is designed for including operation with hydrogen as fuel and fuel cells for energy conversion. The overall design of the concept ship is compared with selected other fuel alternatives from a cost perspective. 

Further, both the conditions for designing such a ship and the consequences are studied. The conditions include technical design and costs of fuel systems and handling, powertrains etc. but also an analysis of barriers and drivers for the realisation of hydrogen solutions for shipping, such as economic, legal, and policy issues. For example, in terms of drivers, policy options needed to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen based marine solutions are assessed. Strategies and the potential of producing these fuels in the Nordic region are also reviewed from a shipping perspective. A realistic potential for uptake of these technologies/fuels by Nordic shipping are assessed and the benefits regarding lower emissions of GHGs and air pollutants are estimated. This report summarizes the assessments made in the HOPE project including main findings. 

This report includes a ship concept design developed for a RoPax ship (a ferry transporting passengers and goods) with hydrogen fuel cell propulsion for intended operations on the route Frederikshavn (Denmark) to Gothenburg (Sweden). The assessments, performed within the HOPE (Hydrogen fuel cells solutions in shipping in relation to other low carbon options – a Nordic perspective) project, shows that it is technically feasible to build and operate such a ship with existing technology for the studied route between these two Nordic countries. Also, the costs of such a concept are assessed and compared to other fuel options including: battery-electric propulsion, electro-ammonia, electro-methanol, biomass-based methane, or fossil liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as conventional fossil marine gas oil (MGO).

The overall result from the comparative analysis of the estimated costs is that the hydrogen fuel cell ship, when assuming current or near future costs for the technology and the hydrogen, is estimated to be some 25 percent more expensive than a conventional fossil fuelled (MGO) RoPax ship (when including costs for emissions in the EU emission trading scheme). However, the cost developments are uncertain. In the case that fuel cell prices, and hydrogen prices, are decreasing, and todays cost levels of emission allowances in the EU emission trading scheme (ETS) increase, the hydrogen fuel cell ship could possibly be operated at lower total costs compared to the MGO fuelled ship.

A cost benefit analysis was also performed, comparing costs linked to the technical implementation of hydrogen fuel cell solutions in shipping (with a private and social perspective) to benefits in terms of reduced external costs linked to lower emissions and potential subsides. The cost benefit assessment also confirms that the investment from a private perspective is not cost effective and that additional subsidies may be needed for investments in fuel cell hydrogen technology to take place. The cost effectiveness from a social perspective is strongly dependent on values of highly uncertain parameters.

The impacts of emissions of hydrogen as fuel in a Nordic context were assessed for deployment scenarios for hydrogen and fuel cell solutions in Nordic shipping. There is a considerable potential for emission reductions both in terms of CO2, nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and particulate matter (PM) linked to the implementation of hydrogen and fuel cells in Nordic shipping, particularly in the RoPax segment, representing 30% of total CO2 emissions in 2018. Considering the relatively long lifetime of vessels, investments must be made soon to enable a hydrogen powered shipping fleet in the near future. Since it is currently not economically viable with hydrogen and fuel cells vessels there is need for subsidies and investments in pilots to develop solutions and speed up the process. 

In response to stricter regulations on ship air emissions, many shipowners have installed exhaust gas cleaning systems, known as scrubbers, allowing for use of cheap residual heavy fuel oil. Scrubbers produce large volumes of acidic and polluted water that is discharged to the sea. Due to environmental concerns, the use of scrubbers is being discussed within the International Maritime Organization. Real-world simulations of global scrubber-vessel activity, applying actual fuel costs and expenses related to scrubber operations, show that 51% of the global scrubber-fitted fleet reached economic break even by the end of 2022, with a surplus of €4.7 billion in 2019 euros. Within five years after installation, more than 95% of the ships with the most common scrubber systems reach break even. However, the marine ecotoxicity damage cost, from scrubber water discharge in the Baltic Sea Area 2014–2022, amounts to >€680 million in 2019 euros, showing that private economic interests come at the expense of marine environmental damage.

The most important parameters that influence the air quality in vehicles are the choice of cabin air filter and the air quality outside the vehicle. Real-life driving test methods for measurement in traffic environments developed in AQIFOR project showed repeatable differences between the reduction efficiency of the various cabin air filters in the car ventilation systems. Additional parameters that affected the reduction efficiency for air pollutants in the vehicle were ventilation speed and degree of air recirculation in the ventilation. Different air pollutants are affected differently. All filters tested purified air from particles; the reduction efficiency for PM2.5 was from 40% to over 80% for different filters, particles in the size range 10 - 600 nm were more difficult to clean than larger particles. Filters containing active carbon also purified the air from NO2; reduction efficiency showed similar pattern to reduction efficiency for particles. Sampling for VOC and PAH showed that volatiles are not purified by filters, but the less volatile species are effectively reduced. The project also investigated occupational exposure of professional drivers to air pollution in both passenger cars and trucks. The results showed that the drivers' exposure to benzo (a) pyrene, 1,3-butadiene and benzene was low, well below the working environment limit values.

A joint UN Environment and AMAP report that presents the latest and comprehensive information of global mercury emissions and releases to the environment, information on atmospheric and aquatic chemistry and fate and transport of mercury. The report is a fully referenced scientific background report for the Global Mercury Assessment 2018.

Syftet med denna studie är att beräkna hur mycket den fossila energianvändningen minskar vid användandet av eldrivna lastcyklar istället för diesel- eller eldrivna lastbilar. Studien inkluderar också beräkningar av skillnaderna i växthusgasutsläppen för de olika fordonen. Uppdraget är utfört på uppdrag av Stockholms Cykelåkeri AB och projektet har finansierats av Grön BoStad Stockholm.

Many ports today want to improve the information flow in the logistics chain to be able to make port calls more efficient and thereby reduce the waiting times for ships, terminals and other operators in the logistics chain. The Port of Gävle is part of two ongoing projects, where digital tools and improvement of the current regulatory and structural framework in the port are being evaluated. The example calculations made in this study show that the potential to reduce emissions at sea is great even at minor speed reductions. For example, the annual greenhouse gas emissions for all incoming vessels would decrease by 8 300 tonnes of CO2-e if the ships would lower their speed at sea from last port by only 5%. This can be compared to effects from a shorter time at berth that not only can reduce emissions from ships quayside but also from ships at anchor, due to shorter waiting times. The potential reduction with 7% shorter times at berth is between 600 and 900 tonnes of CO2-e/year and the reduction at anchor is estimated to be between 825 and 3 860 tonnes of CO2-e/year.

This feasibility study aims to evaluate the possibilities to reduce air emissions from ships anchored in port areas and, then especially the Port of Gothenburg.

For this purpose, the study uses two main approaches. Firstly, it analyses the reasons and legal/business aspects for anchoring. Secondly, this study develops a reproducible calculation model for anchored vessels' CO2 emissions.

Regulation of anchoring sites are not entirely clear since international regulation partly applies, also it is not clear who is responsible for the anchoring sites. This implies that the port´s scope of action is limited mainly to the ships that are calling the port.

However, also emission from other ships at in the port area has been evaluated in this study to get a broader perspective.

The background is the decision to establish a NOX Emission Control Area (NECA) in the region requiring ships to follow Tier III NOX emission regulations from 2021. To achieve further and more rapid reductions of NOX emissions than what is expected from the NECA, additional policy instruments have been discussed. The policy instruments analysed in this study are assumed to be additional to the NECA requirements. Our study describes changes of emissions and costs for existing ships with Tier II engines when upgrading for lower NOX emissions. Of the many existing technological alternatives to accomplish NOX reduction, this study focuses on liquefied natural gas (LNG) engines and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) for after treatment of exhaust gas. Emissions of NOX in 2030 are modeled for scenarios in which different policy instruments are assumed. The use of LNG and abatement equipment is modeled with the assumption that ship-owners choose the most advantageous option from a cost perspective.

The most effective policy instrument found in this study is the refundable emission payment (REP) scheme. The reduction of emissions depends on the fee and subsidy rate applied. For example, a subsidy rate of 60% and a fee of 1 €/kg NOX is modelled to reduce the yearly emissions of NOX from shipping in the Baltic Sea in 2030 by about 53 ktonnes. A NOX tax will also have a significant effect on the NOX emissions, but in this case the costs for ship-owners are significantly higher. Applying a CO2 tax or environmentally differentiated port dues in the model are found to have less impact on the NOX emissions. Introducing slow steaming has a potential to reduce NOX emissions In another scenario the effects on emissions from a financial investments support for abatement technology or LNG engines are modeled. At an interest rate of 0 % emissions are reduced significantly.

According to our model, an extended NECA, where also other sea areas than the Baltic and North Seas become NECAs, has no further impact on the NOX emissions in the Baltic Sea. However, since the abatement equipment is used for more hours in a global NECA it will reduce the abatement cost per kg NOX.

Sweden has adopted environmental discounts for ships arriving at fairways and in some ports to encourage investment in measures to reduce shipping’s impact on climate change, air quality and marine environment. The present study investigates the impact of these discounts in 2020 on investment decisions made by ship-owners. As a starting point, this impact was assessed by comparing the potential annual benefits of the discounts with the annualized costs of retrofitting four selected abatement technologies.

The results indicate that, while the port discounts are relatively small when compared to the costs of abatement, the fairway discounts could be significant for ships frequently calling at Swedish ports under specific conditions. However, we conclude that the discounts alone are insufficient to incentivize ship-owners to invest in abatement technologies for older ships. To improve the usefulness of these discounts, the design should incorporate a more precise internalization of abatement costs. This could be achieved by implementing individual discounts for different abatement strategies, establishing dedicated subsidies for high-cost innovative technologies, enhancing scoring systems, and by better matching the discount with other market-based policies internationally.

A newly developed remote sensing instrument with NO2 and NOX measurement capability was operated in the fall of 2016 over 19 workdays in Gothenburg, Sweden, to measure real driving emissions from a large number light- and heavy-duty vehicles. From more than 30,000 registered vehicle passages, a final QA/QC-reviewed dataset consisting of about 15,000 paired records containing emissions, driving condition and detailed vehicle information data, was used to evaluate the real-world emission performance of in particular Euro 5 and Euro 6 diesel vehicles. More than 9,000 records were of diesel vehicles, of which about 5,500 were of Euro 5 vehicles and about 2,600 of Euro 6 vehicles. The following conclusions were made from the evaluation:

- Measurements on more than 6,000 diesel passenger cars reveal that the real driving emissions of NOX from Euro 6 diesel cars on average have been reduced by about 60% from pre-Euro 6 levels, e.g. Euro 5. This may be considered a major breakthrough, since the real-world NOX emissions from diesel passenger cars have been virtually unchanged between Euro 2 and Euro 5, although the NOX emission standard has been significantly lowered from Euro 2 to Euro 5. Still, Euro 6 diesel passenger car real-world NOX emissions are roughly more than 5 times higher than the Euro 6 standard, as well as than the measured average on-road NOX emissions from Euro 6 gasoline passenger cars.

- For NOX emissions, an almost identical pattern as for diesel passenger cars was observed for both diesel light-duty commercial vehicles and diesel heavy-duty vehicles (trucks and buses), i.e. virtually no change in real-world emissions between Euro 2 and Euro 5, followed by a major drop in emissions for Euro 6.

- Primary NO2 emissions from diesel light-duty vehicles (both PC and LCV) have been reduced from Euro 4 through Euro 6, implying that the emission ratio of NO2 to NOX has also been reduced, but the ratio is still as high as about 25% for both Euro 5 and Euro 6 (compared to about 15% for Euro 2). The opposite pattern exists for heavy-duty vehicles, for which the NO2/NOX-ratio increased from about 10% for Euro 4-5 to ≈35% for Euro 6.

- For all categories of diesel vehicles, real-world PM emissions have dropped steadily from Euro 2 through Euro 6 – reductions are in the order of 90% for Euro 6 compared to Euro 2.

- For Euro 4, 5 and 6 diesel passenger cars, real-world emissions of both NOX and NO2 increase with decreasing ambient air temperature. The temperature dependence appears to be strongest for Euro 5 cars. At 25-30 degrees C average Euro 5 NOX on-road emissions are around 15 g/kg fuel burned, rising to 20-25 g/kg fuel burned at around 10 degrees C.

- Large differences in the on-road NOX emission performance were observed between different makes, models, as well as individual vehicles among Euro 5 and Euro 6 diesel passenger cars.

- For the first time, remote sensing measurements were combined with air quality measurements and dispersion calculations in an urban street canyon. Calculated average concentrations of NO2, NOX and PM based on HBEFA 3.2 were comparable with corresponding measured concentrations, but the discrepancy increased with increasing concentrations, with calculated concentrations being lower than measured. The latest version of the HBEFA emission model (version 3.3), launched in May 2017, provided a good match with the remote sensing measurements for both NOX and NO2 as well as exhaust PM, but at the same time tended to lead to an overestimation of street canyon concentrations of NO2 and NOX in dispersion calculations carried out in this study.

There are incentive schemes in Swedish ports that offer lower port dues for ships with high environmental performance, but there is currently no similar scheme for trucks. However, larger environmental and city development problems related to road transports have resulted in increased pressure on ports to suggest and implement mitigating actions to reduce environmental impacts caused by road traffic to and from the port. Four port-related incentives are analysed in this report: a port due discount for ships with reduced speed in the fairway channel; a port due discount for ships with very low NOX emissions from auxiliary engines; an entrance fee for trucks passing through the port gate during peak hours; and a differentiated entrance fee for trucks based on the truck’s environmental performance. The national cost-minimizing freight transport model Samgods was used to simulate the impacts of the gate fees. From a legal perspective, some issues related to implementation have been identified but depend on the detailed design of the proposed charging. The main criterion for EU is that the fee or tax cannot have discriminatory effects or hinder the free movement of goods or services. This project also gives an overview of environmental policy measures to explore the possibility to implement the port dues. Introduction of environmentally differentiated port dues globally, or at least in the EU, would include greater incentives for shipping companies, ship owners and road haulers to invest in emission abatement technologies or use alternative fuels.

What are required for ports to offer hydrogen-based fuels and electrical solutions to ships? What actors are involved that play a crucial role in the realization? Not all ports can be energy hubs, but ports that offer alternative fuels, onshore power supply and charging of batteries can have a strategic advantage in the future. This report includes the development of emission-free inland waterways and a green bunkering and charging strategy for ports. The focus is on the role of port authorities, but also other perspectives are important, as a shift from fossil fuels to low-carbon fuels requires collaboration among many actors. Therefore, the scope also involves the perspectives of shipping companies, port authorities, terminal operators, energy companies/producers, technology providers and authorities. This report provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels and charging facilities for low-carbon shipping, and explores the development over time, including various aspects such as technical description and maturity level, national production capacity, infrastructure and storage needs, and environmental, economic and safety aspects. The report covers techno-economic assessment of renewable fuels such as methanol, hydrogen, and ammonia, including capital and operational costs, cost/benefit analysis, and sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, the report contains discussions about the national, EU, and IMO policies and funding programs related to sustainable shipping. 

Almost all ships today still use conventional fuels of fossil origin. This is expected to change, but the uptake of renewable fuels will be slow the forthcoming years due to insufficient fuel production capacity, technical immaturity and slow implementation of regulation and requirements. Prerequisite for the shift is increased energy efficiency, because future low-carbon fuels will be more expensive and with limited production capacity initially. Renewable fuels to replace existing fossil fuels and measures to reduce the greenhouse gases of shipping included in this report are biofuels, methanol, hydrogen and ammonia, and battery electric and wind propulsion. Further, important driving forces and enablers for the development of low-carbon marine fuels and electric solutions are also highlighted.This report gives directives to promote sustainable shipping, including descriptions of and guidelines for 1) low-carbon shipping on inland waterways, and 2) a strategy for bunkering and charging of ships in ports for a specific country or region. The first part addresses the Lithuanian Inland Waterway Authority’s project of a fully electrified sea transportation system along Nemunas River between Kaunas to Klaipeda. The Guideline for low-carbon shipping on inland waterways represent a comprehensive framework aimed at reducing the carbon footprint associated with inland water transportation, with the objective to establish clear directives and best practices. The second part includes the development of a Swedish bunkering and charging strategy, with an assessment of present and potential future supply and demand of fuel production sites, bunkering and charging facilities based on annual port call statistics in all Swedish ports. The objective of the guideline for the national bunkering and charging strategy is to provide other countries around the Baltic Sea with a methodology to analyse supply and demand of energy in ports to serve the shipping industry, but also surrounding industries and terminal equipment, today and in the future. The purpose of these guidelines is to provide a roadmap for stakeholders in shipping to move towards low-carbon operations and contribute to the necessary reduction of ship and port emissions.  The following conclusions are highlighted:1.    No silver bullet – several fuels and solutions will be available in the future and complement each other. 2.    Ships’ emissions need to be greatly reduced – and it is urgent! 3.    Likely development with a shift from centralised to more local production and bunkering, with synergies/competition between shipping and land-based industries.4.    Policies and regulations are required and essential for supporting development of renewable fuels and reducing ship emissions.5.    Pilot project and financial support is needed to prepare for full scale transformation. 6.    Costs in all parts of the supply chain need to be reduced for renewable fuels to be competitive. 7.    Cooperation among many actors is required and increased knowledge to grasp the quick development. 8.    Business opportunities ahead! 

Enligt det senaste referensscenariot för Sveriges utsläpp av kväveoxider (NOX) till 2030 kommer Sverige överskrida taket i det andra NEC-direktivet om inte ytterligare åtgärder tas. Utsläppen från vägtrafik, inrikes sjöfart och fiske står enligt referensscenariot för en betydande del av Sveriges NOX-utsläpp år 2030, och här finns också potential för ytterligare utsläppsminskningar.

Syftet med den här studien var att undersöka vilka styrmedel som är mest effektiva för att minska utsläppen av NOX från vägtrafik, inrikes sjöfart och fiskefartyg till år 2030 samt undersöka hur kostnadseffektiva styrmedlen är. Syftet var också att undersöka hur styrmedlen påverkar utsläppen av PM2.5 och CO2. Åtta styrmedel med syfte att minska utsläpp inom vägtrafiksektorn samt tre styrmedel med syfte att minska utsläpp inom inrikes sjöfart och från fiskefartyg studerades.

Det styrmedel för vägtrafik som uppvisar lägst kostnad per reduktion av kg NOX samt god kostnadseffektivitet är införandet av skärpta CO2-krav på EU-nivå enligt det förslag som ligger. Detta styrmedel resulterar enligt studien även i betydande utsläppsminskningar av NOX och CO2. Övriga styrmedel för vägtrafik som är kostnadseffektiva är premien för etanolkonvertering, kilometerskatt för tunga fordon och miljödifferentierad trängselavgift. Inget av dessa styrmedel leder till betydande NOX-utsläppsminskningar. Det är osäkert om skrotningspremien, som resulterar i en utsläppsminskning av NOX på ca 400 ton, är kostnadseffektiv.

Euro 7/VII-krav för lätta respektive tunga fordon resulterar visserligen i stora utsläppsminskningar av NOX år 2030, men detta styrmedel har höga enhetskostnader per reducerat kg NOX. Det är inte heller kostnadseffektivt då nytto/kostnadskvoten är långt under 1, dvs. kostnaderna överstiger nyttorna.

För inrikes sjöfart och fiskefartyg visar studien att samtliga studerade styrmedel har potential att leda till betydande utsläppsminskningar till år 2030, med låga kostnader per kg minskad NOX och hög kostnadseffektivitet. Av de åtgärder som följer av respektive styrmedel har efterinstallation av SCR bäst effekt på NOX-utsläppen.