IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

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  • 1.
    Fransson, Nathalie
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Lygnerud, Kristina
    Särnbratt, Mirjam
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Business models at REWARDHeat demonstrators2022Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this report, business models have been developed for the demonstration sites in the REWARDHeat project with the purpose to uncover lessons learned about the shift in business logic when transitioning from conventional DH business models to low temperature schemes. The business models have been developed in an iterative process with the DH companies participating in the project, during the first three years of its elaboration. A particular focus has been placed on the innovative component of the business models, i.e., the green value creation and its value to different stakeholders. Selling heat as a service (instead of as a commodity) has been the starting point in developing the business models. Contractual considerations and ownership forms have been analyzed for each of the demonstration sites.

    The findings enable the project to respond to the main questions of the deliverable: How does the REWARDHeat business model experiences differ from a conventional DH business model and what can we learn from the transition to low temperature DH solutions?The aggregated results show that the demo sites focus on technical innovations but seven out of 10 also develop business innovations by increasing the service offer to customers. The business logic of low temperature DH makes it more efficient to develop the business innovation simultaneously with the technical innovation.The lack of EU legislation on waste heat recovery is causing uncertainties. Investors need to know whether the investment is considered sustainable. The value of green is created at all demo sites and valued by most stakeholders. It is however only exploited in the business model at three demo sites.Offering more advanced service to customers necessitates a shift towards being more customer oriented.

    By assuming ownership and maintenance of the substation at the customer site, the boundary condition is shifted to inside the customers’ buildings. It creates a value of carefreeness for the customer as the DH company assumes more risk. The DH company gains from increased control of the network, something increasingly important in low temperature solutions. Three demo sites are offering advanced services resulting in a co-dependent relationship with the customer where the collaboration requires integration of processes.The main change in the business model canvas for low temperature installations, in comparison to conventional DH, is the necessity to manage relationships. Relationship building is required for new partnerships, due to multiple decentralized heat sources, and for the prosumer customer segment, instated from waste heat and renewable energy integration. As decentralized energy sources are introduced to the DH network the distribution network becomes more important and large-scale centralized production plants less important. The business logic of low temperature solutions is more on circulating available resources, utilizing the available flexibility in the distribution network, and implementing more advanced control to manage the system efficiently.

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  • 2.
    Fransson, Nathalie
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Särnbratt, Mirjam
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Investor perspectives on hydrogen investments2024Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Investment volumes directed to hydrogen projects need to increase drastically for the market to take off. Investors were interviewed for their perspectives on the emerging market, risk management and evaluation criteria applied to hydrogen investments and what needs to be done to attract more investors. The conclusion of the investor interviews is that hydrogen investments are perceived as high-risk investments and that investors that are able to invest in hydrogen in this nascent phase are more risk tolerant. The investment is made to learn more about the technology and the main driver is the belief that hydrogen could contribute to achieving necessary greenhouse gas emissions. . Considerable uncertainty surrounds the hydrogen investments of today, making it difficult for investors to approach the investment case in the same way as they do the more established technologies.  The informants therefore requested a more predictable and stable policy landscape to accelerate hydrogen investments.

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  • 3.
    Jivén, Karl
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Hjort, Anders
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Malmgren, Elin
    Chalmers University of Technology.
    Persson, Emelie
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Brynolf, Selma
    Chalmers University of Technology.
    Lönnqvist, Tomas
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Särnbratt, Mirijam
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Mellin, Anna
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Can LNG be replaced with Liquid Bio-Methane (LBM) in shipping?2022Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    As per today (2021), in total some 500 TWh bunker fuel is consumed within the shipping sector annually within EU waters and approximately 25 TWh of this (5%) is LNG (Liquefied natural gas). The fleet of LNG fuelled vessels has grown steadily since the first vessels were introduced around year 2000. Predictions and scenarios indicate that in a couple of years, it is likely that around 15 % of all bunker fuels consumed in shipping will be LNG.Through detailed analyses of present and planned production capacity combined with scenarios built for future potential bio- and electro-methane production, a possibility to replace large amounts of LNG in shipping can be seen from a Swedish perspective.

    In total, the analysis shows a maximum scenario for LBM production (Liquefied Bio Methane) in Sweden year 2045 of nearly 30 TWh annually. This potential includes electro-methane production based on carbon dioxide that is naturally formed during the biogas digestion production process. All production, of methane being assessed as potential, is assessed to be based on sustainable sub¬strates and sustainably produced.This report shows that it could be possible to replace fossil LNG as a fuel in shipping with renewa¬ble LBM at a large scale from a Swedish perspective. The total bunkering of ships in Sweden are around 25 TWh per year, varies over time, and is dependant not only on which ships that calls Swe¬dish ports but also with the market competition with bunker suppliers in other countries. Should 15% of that fuel be LNG, it would be some 4 TWh LNG that could be interesting to switch towards renewable LBM.

    The potential shift in shipping in Sweden from LNG to LBM at a level of 4-6 TWh is assessed to be a realistic potential, but the shift will not happen unless the society gives the industry incentives that supports that shift and clearly shows the involved stakeholders that there is a long-term strat¬egy to enhance renewable methane production and consumption. It is especially important that pol¬icy instrument in the shipping sector is introduced that connects greenhouse gas emissions with a cost that can be avoided if fuels with low or zero emissions being used.Today, only a small proportion of bio-methane is liquefied to LBM in Sweden, while most of the planned production facilities for biogas will be for LBM, thanks to subsidies in the form of invest¬ment support and the decreased demand of CBG that benefits LBM.This report has chosen to use the expression Liquid Bio-Methane (LBM) due to the fact that the ex¬pression often used Liquid Bio Gas (LBG) does not cover the important part of the methane pro¬duced as an electrofuel based on carbon dioxide from the digestion process and also not really in¬cludes the methanation of syngas from gasification plants.A Swedish production support in combination with the introduction of shipping within the EU emission trading scheme (ETS) seems too possibly even out the cost difference between LNG and LBG as a marine fuel or at least give a significantly smaller barrier to overcome.To establish the environmental rationale of this product, life cycle assessments of the production of LBM and the use in the shipping sector were performed. No previous scientific studies have been identified which look into the performance of using electrofuel pathways of LBM in the shipping sector. The results are presented in the report together with an analysis of potential future issues to observe.

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  • 4.
    Nyberg, Theo
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Klugman, Sofia
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Särnbratt, Mirjam
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Nojpanya, Pavinee
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Hjort, Anders
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Persson, Emelie
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Fagerström, Anton
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Lönnqvist, Tobias
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Bioenergianläggning Otterbäcken2022Report (Refereed)
    Abstract [sv]

    Transportsektorns efterfrågan på biodrivmedel ökar när klimatomställningen ska omsättas i praktik. Sverige har goda förutsättningar att producera dessa drivmedel och det finns flertalet orter runt om i landet där förutsättningarna för biodrivmedelsproduktion är goda. Gullspångs kommun har under de senaste tio åren fört en dialog med Västra Götalandsregionen om möjligheten att etablera en bioenergikombinatanläggning i Otterbäcken för att nyttja de goda förutsättningar som finns med tillgång på råvara samt goda logistiska förutsättningar med bland annat djuphamnen. I detta projekt har en utredning gjorts för att ta fram kommersiellt relevanta investeringskoncept för en bioenergikombinatanläggning i Otterbäcken, och resultaten pekar på intressanta förutsättningar för en anläggning för produktion av flytande biometan (Liquified biogas, LBG).

    Projektet har utgått från en äldre förstudie där förutsättningarna för en bioenergikombinat-anläggning som producerar torrefierad biomassa undersöktes. Kunskaperna från denna tidigare studie har kompletterats med nya kartläggningar av relevanta tekniker och lokala råvaror som kan ingå i ett investeringskoncept för en anläggning som producerar biodrivmedel som kan användas i befintliga tunga lastbilar. Kartläggningen omfattade sju olika tekniker som utifrån de uppdaterade kartläggningarna kondenserades ned till två investeringskoncept för djupare undersökning av investeringskoncept. Det ena konceptet var en anläggning för produktion av pyrolysolja från skogsrester och det andra konceptet var en anläggning för produktion av LBG, men på grund av en högre teknologisk mognadsgrad samt större intresse från referensgruppen för det senare konceptet (LBG) så fick detta ett större fokus i projektet.

    De två fördjupade investeringskoncepten inkluderade teknikbeskrivning, skiss på affärsmodell med hjälp av referensgruppen, ekonomisk bedömning av lönsamheten i investeringen samt en beräkning av klimatpåverkan för drivmedlet (endast för LBG-konceptet).

    Resultaten visar att det ser ut att finnas både råvaror för, teknik till och förutsättningar för en god ekonomi i en anläggning för produktion av LBG. Råvarusituationen behöver bekräftas genom kontakter med råvaruleverantörer, tekniken kan behöva viss utvärdering för att hitta etablerade teknikleverantörer med pålitlig teknik och de ekonomiska förutsättningarna är beroende av investerings- och produktionsstöd för att kunna vara kommersiellt intressanta. Trots dessa osäkerheter är den samlade bedömningen att det kan vara aktuellt för en aktör eller grupp av aktörer med intresse av att äga och driva en biogasanläggning att ta vid där projektet slutar för att på sikt gå vidare med en investering i en anläggning.

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  • 5.
    Rootzén, Johan
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Nyberg, Theo
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Särnbratt, Mirjam
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Nilsson, Johan
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Johansson, Sara
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Holistic, actionable, transparent – How could sustainability of energy systems scenarios be assessed? - Findings from the project “100 percent renewable – how  many percent sustainable?”2023Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [en]

    In the context of achieving a climate-neutral and sustainable electricity system, energy systems modelling is often used as a tool to assist decision making. However, a challenge posed within the field is how to represent sustainability in a way that presents actionable, clear and holistic results. There is thus a need to give a more comprehensive and nuanced view of sustainability aspects of energy system modelling.

    To provide a basis of understanding of how sustainability could be conceptualized and assessed in energy systems modelling, six well known (from a Swedish point-of-view) sustainability frameworks were analyzed and presented in this report: the concept of Environmental Carrying Capacity, the Planetary Boundaries, the Doughnut Economics framework, the Sustainable Development Goals, the Swedish Environmental Quality Objectives and the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development. The frameworks were structured according to their sustainability concept and according to what decision-making they would be able to provide input to. The results of the report serve as input to the discourse concerning how the energy system could be transformed to 100 % renewable electricity production along a truly sustainable way.

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  • 6.
    Särnbratt, Mirjam
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Fransson, Nathalie
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Dagens affärsmodeller för vätgas i vägtransporten2023Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Dagens affärsmodeller för vätgas inom vägtransporten kartlades genom en litteraturstudie och intervjuer med vätgasaktörer aktiva på den svenska marknaden. Intervjuerna visade på att aktörerna samarbetar längs hela värdekedjan för att skapa en kritisk massa i sitt kundunderlag och få marknaden att ta fart. Dagens affärsmodell är omogen och är fortfarande i en etableringsfas.

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  • 7.
    Särnbratt, Mirjam
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Fransson, Nathalie
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Lygnerud, Kristina
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Storm, Benjamin
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Sernhed, Kerstin
    Hansson, Herman
    Andersson, Martin
    Vätgas i ett framtida energisystem - Affärsmodeller och användning i transportsektorn2024Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In light of the ever-increasing interest in hydrogen and number of hydrogen initiatives, there is a need to holistically approach the current business models for hydrogen and address how these can be strategically adapted to fit the future energy landscape of 2045, the year when Sweden has pledged to be climate neutral. The project has focused on hydrogen production, distribution and application in the transport sector, a fossil-dependent sector where hydrogen could play an important role in the decarbonization of the sector.The mapping of current business models for hydrogen in the transport sector shows a nascent and immature market, where the existing customer segments are within road transportation. The hydrogen actors are faced with major uncertainties concerning the market development and this requires them to collaborate closely with other actors along the entire value chain, including the pioneering customers. The customer value is fossil-free fuel, supplied to the customers. In 2045, the entire business model will be affected by external factors such as decarbonization of all sectors, the pace at which competing technologies develop, trends in the electricity price and, not least, by the possible expansion and upgrading of electricity and hydrogen distribution grids. These so-called boundary conditions, and the suggested layout for the future business models, could be used by hydrogen actors to make long-term strategic choices about how to develop their business model in the future.

    Large investment volumes will be required for the hydrogen market to take off. Through interviews with investors, the investor perspective on the hydrogen business today and in 2045 has been highlighted. Investors who have invested in hydrogen today have a long-term perspective on the investment and do not expect high returns in the short term, but rather see hydrogen as a way to learn about a technology that is strategically important for the future. At the same time, most of the interviewed investors see hydrogen as a high-risk investment and limit its share of the portfolio. For hydrogen actors who need capital, it is important to understand which investor categories may be interested, how the investment is assessed and what risks investors see in the hydrogen business.

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  • 8. Trinh, Jenny
    et al.
    Nojpanya, Pavinee
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Hernández Leal, Maria
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Fagerström, Anton
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Särnbratt, Mirjam
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Fossilfri Flygräddning 20452022Report (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    To meet the Swedish climate target of net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2045, it has become more and more urgent for the aviation sector to reduce its climate footprint. However, this represents a challenge for the non-commercial part of the aviation sector such as the air borne search-and-rescue services, as their activities cannot be compromised by the climate target. Increased use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) is a way to achieve the climate target, while still not compromising the mission for this part of aviation. 

    However, due to a high demand on SAF, their availability and possibility to supply the aviation sector in Sweden as well as their environmental impact in relation to the climate target is still somewhat uncertain.

    This report aims to increase the understanding in these issues by first reviewing the domestic feedstock availability and calculating the SAF production potential within Sweden. Thereafter, an assessment was done on how the aviation fuel market could vary in Sweden by 2045 due to the strength of the GHG reduction mandate and the dependence or independence of fuel from outside Sweden.

    This was done through 4 different future scenarios based on a mathematical model. Finally, the environmental impact of selected SAFs was evaluated by life cycle assessment (LCA) following the method described in the recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (REDII). The assessment was done based on the currently available data. Thus, the future change in the technology and other circumstances were not taken into account. 

    The current and future (2045) Swedish production potential of jet fuel was investigated via 4 different pathways, i.e., Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) from biogenic waste oils, Gasification-based Fischer-Tropsch (G-FT) from forest residues, Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL) from forest residues and Power-to-Liquid (PtL) from biogenic captured CO2 and H2 from electrolysis via Fischer-Tropsh (FT).

    The pathways, of the assessed ones, having the highest current and future potential considering feedstock supply are G-FT and HTL. The results were however considerably affected by the assumptions made on process yield. The production potential of PtL was not as high as the other pathways due to low availability of feedstock. Finally, HEFA was the pathway with the lowest potential due to the low availability of domestic raw material.

    Based on the scenario analysis, the future of fossil free jet fuel is highly dependent of the price of fuel as well as the maximum allowed blending ratio of fossil free jet fuel. In this particular scenario analysis, domestic ATJ and HEFA was favored by the model thanks to their low production costs and avoided import costs, since the fuel is produced in Sweden. However, although the production plants used in the model will be constructed within Swedish borders, it is unlikely that domestic HEFA feedstock would be sufficient to supply them and there would likely be an import of waste oils to meet the demand of the plants. 

    The environmental assessment was done on UCO-based HEFA and PtL. HEFA was assessed as it is the fuel that the Search and Rescue fleet used during the pilot phase of this project. PtL was assessed for the sake of comparison and also because most data for PtL production was already available. Both HEFA and PtL show the potential of reducing the fossil GHG emissions up to 70 and 77%, respectively. However, with the technical and legislative limitations, it is not yet possible to use pure SAF in the aviation sector. This leads to the potential emission reduction of the greenhouse gases being lower than 42%. SAF production and transportation of feedstock are one of the main contributors to the emissions.

    In general, HEFA production has higher climate impact than the production of PtL. In addition, UCO which is the feedstock for HEFA was assumed to be collected in China. This gives a significantly higher impact compared to the PtL-process where all activities were assumed to take place in Sweden. This implies that the climate impact of HEFA can be reduced if the UCO can be collected domestically. However, as the assessment shows, the climate target will be difficult to achieve when using HEFA or PtL.

    The challenge lies on the upstream processes of these two SAF which currently are still fossil-based. For HEFA, it is common that H2 is produced from natural gas while for PtL, the production of raw materials used in electrolysis and carbon capture process such as chemicals and catalysts contribute to fossil emissions.  

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