This report presents a scenario analysis of three alternative forest management systems in Sweden: rotation forest management (RFM), continuous cover forestry (CCF), and a mixed system combining the two. Using a 75‑year simulation framework, the Monsu forest planning software was applied to a large dataset of Swedish National Forest Inventory plots to model forest dynamics, timber production, carbon sequestration, and a broad range of ecological and multiple‑use indicators. The simulations incorporated Swedish growth models, optimal schedule selection through combinatorial optimization, and assumptions about protected areas, harvesting constraints, and silvicultural practices.
The results include estimates of timber supply and assortment distribution, forest volume development, biomass accumulation, carbon balances and carbon stock dynamics, as well as indicators related to biodiversity, recreation, and non‑wood forest products. Together, these outputs provide a comprehensive comparison of how different silvicultural strategies may influence both production‑oriented and ecological outcomes over time, based on the assumptions applied in the simulations. Overall, the scenarios indicate that while all systems can deliver a stable long‑term timber supply, continuous cover forestry tends to enhance forest structural development, carbon storage, and several multiple‑use values, whereas rotation forestry maintains a more substantial supply of pulpwood and biofuel. The mixed scenario generally yields intermediate results, illustrating how combining management approaches may balance economic and ecological objectives. Together, the findings offer insight into the trade-offs and synergies associated with transitioning toward more diversified forest management in Sweden.
Stockholm: IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet, 2026.