IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the emerging market for hydrogen derivatives for maritime applications in the Baltic Sea Region, conducted within the Interreg H2Deri@BSP project. Based on an extensive literature review, policy analysis, mapping of nearly 300 hydrogen-related projects, and broad stakeholder engagement, it assesses current and future demand, production potential, infrastructure readiness, and regulatory conditions across eight Baltic Sea countries.

The analysis shows that while momentum toward renewable maritime fuels is increasing, hydrogen derivatives, such as electroammonia, electromethanol, and renewable hydrogen, remain in an early stage of development. If all announced projects were realised, regional production could exceed 330 TWh beyond 2030. However, with expected realisation rates of 7–25%, only 14–50 TWh is likely to be available by 2030. Production is concentrated in Denmark, Germany, Finland, and Sweden, while several ports are beginning to plan for bunkering and storage of renewable fuels.

Both established bunkering hubs and ports located near planned production sites may play key roles in the future bunkering landscape. Stakeholders across the region view electrofuels as essential for long-term decarbonisation but identify high costs, investment risks, weak regulatory signals, and uncertain offtake markets as major barriers. Achieving large-scale deployment will require stronger global, EU and national policy frameworks, streamlined permitting, and risk-sharing mechanisms such as contracts for difference and long-term offtake guarantees. Enhanced cross-border cooperation, including hydrogen corridors and shared port infrastructure, will also be crucial for efficient scale-up.