IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

For the shipping sector to phase out its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, low-carbon fuels and ships must be scaled up significantly in the coming years. To support this development, the EU has introduced policy instruments such as FuelEU Maritime, which aim to gradually reduce the GHG intensity of maritime fuels. The EU has also expanded its emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) to drive the transition in shipping. In this report, we analyse the environmental implications of FuelEU Maritime for Swedish-related shipping, focusing on GHG emissions, selected air pollutants, and water pollution associated with scrubber use. Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other pollutants on annual basis from 2024 to 2050 in a European perspective are estimated, using a calculation model, following constraints illustrating the FuelEU Maritime regulation. It is assumed that each ship category needs to follow the reduction rate in the regulation.

Emissions for Swedish related shipping are presented for scenarios representing (i) the introduction of different fuel mixes and (ii) the introduction of one main fuel alternative i.e., single fuel pathways (all scenarios are set to fulfil the FuelEU Maritime). The model draws primarily on the 2023 EU Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) dataset, covering voyages within the European economic area (EEA). Results show that while GHG emissions converge across scenarios due to the regulation’s design, other pollutants may differ substantially based on the fuel and fuel mixes used to comply with the FuelEU Maritime requirements. The use of fuels with very low GHG intensity may lead to higher emissions of sulfur oxides (SOₓ) and particulate matter (PM) than fuels with higher GHG intensity at the fleet level. This, as fewer vessels need to transition from conventional fuels to meet the requirements in the former case. Scenarios using alternative fuels with higher GHG-intensity (which require a faster fleet turnover), result in lower emissions of several air pollutants. LNG deployment is found to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides, SOₓ and PM, but its long-term climate performance is highly sensitive to methane slip assumptions. Scrubber water discharge is primarily influenced by regulatory assumptions on scrubber use rather than fuel choice.