IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

IVL has on commission from the Swedish Cross-Party Committee on Environmental Objectives (Miljömålsberedningen) compiled information on present and future emissions of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP) in Sweden, as well as performed an analysis of further emission reduction potentials and associated costs in 2030. Main results from the study: According to the Swedish emission projections, which take current legislation into account, the national total emissions of all SLCPs will be lower in 2030 compared to today. The trend, however, is different for different sources. Emissions from road traffic are expected to decline significantly. From other mobile sources reductions are also expected, but to a lesser extent than from road traffic. Emissions from residential combustion of biomass are expected to remain at about the same level as at present, why these emissions in relative terms will increase in importance. Mobile sources and residential combustion, which produce emissions from combustion of fuels, emit all SLCPs except HFCs. The agricultural sector is the main emission source for CH4 both today and in the future. For NMVOC emissions from the “solvent and product use” sector is the dominating source. CH4 from the agricultural sector, as well as NMVOC from product and solvent use, are both reduced only slightly to 2030 according to the projections. Emissions of CH4 and NMVOC from other sources are projected be reduced to a greater extent. Agriculture will thus be of relatively greater importance for emissions of CH4 in the future, as will solvent and product use for NMVOC emissions. Emissions of HFCs are expected to decline significantly in the future and there is most likely no cost-effective potential for further reductions of HFC emissions. There is currently no comprehensive Swedish analysis available of cost-effective measures to reduce emissions of SLCP in Sweden 2030. Best available knowledge suggests that there will be technical emission reduction measures available, with a potential to reduce emissions in 2030 beyond currently projected emissions. This report is only available in Swedish.

IVL har på uppdrag av Miljömålsberedningen tagit fram underlag om nuvarande och framtida utsläpp av kortlivade klimatpåverkande luftföroreningar (SLCP– Short-Lived Climate Pollutants) i Sverige, samt analyserat potentialer och kostnader för ytterligar utsläppsminskningar till år 2030.