Urban mobility patterns might radically change due to electrification and automation. This paper investigates mode choice in Sweden when introducing electric and automated private cars, electric and autonomous buses in regular service, and private electric bikes. Mode choice is investigated by using a multinomial logit model of short-distance trips in metropolitan areas calibrated to the Swedish National Travel Survey. The model considersrelationships between trip length, travel speed and access-egress times for all modes and is used for analysing future scenarios up to 2050. The new technologies affect driving costs, travel time costs, travel speed and access times, which in turn impact mode choice.
The results show that when autonomous technology is used within a transport system similar to the current one (e.g., mainly private car ownership and a required license to drive),the effect on modal shares of trips and passenger-kilometres is limited. For example, the distance modal share of car drivers increases from 55.3 % to 61.3 % in 2050. The limited impact can partly be explained by the fact that the impact of new technology on generalised travel cost is limited, and partly by the fact that the multinomial logit model yields mode-specific constants, which causes the model to be relatively insensitive to changes intechnology. Finally, the turn-over rate in a car fleet is typically lower than for both buses and bikes. Overall, it seems unlikely that mobility patterns with radically change with electric and autonomous cars without additional changes to ownership structures and car accessibility.
A-rapport, A2773.