IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

Critical metals are needed for a green transition, but both global reserves and production capacity are limited on the short time scale when the transition needs to take place. In this article we consider critical metals as global commons based on the assumption that they are a required component of a green transition towards zero greenhouse gas emissions, which need to happen in all countries to achieve the Paris agreement. We analyze how the projected demand for critical metals in the EU associated with the green transition relates to supply of 14 critical metals according to different allocation principles.

For almost half of the metals, the cumulative demand until 2050 in the EU is significantly greater than the per capita share of global reserves. Even in a scenario with a 5% annual production increase, 10 out of 14 metals are in overuse in relation to an equal per capita share of global production capacity. A gap analysis shows that only somewhere around 10–20% of the projected use for the green transition in the EU would be sustainable for many metals in relation to an equal allocation. For some metals even greater reductions are needed. Basing a green transition on such a large overuse of critical metals is not sustainable. This calls for strategies that substantially reduce the use of critical metals.