IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

Frameworks for setting so-called science-based corporate net-zero targets require companies to counterbalance residual emissions across scopes 1−3 with durable carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the net-zero target year, no later than 2050, and beyond. We find that if all companies worldwide were to adopt and achieve such targets, the level of CDR by 2050 would be several times higher than the remaining global emissions - which would be unrealistic and unsustainable. This outcome is due to significant double counting in corporate greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories and is not aligned with the frameworks’ foundational science-based net emission pathways. We also present a case study of 303 EU companies with Science-Based Target Initiative net-zero committments, combined with an analysis of the EU Parliament’s Green Claims Directive proposal. The case study shows that these companies alone could create a demand for about 365 MtCO2 of EU-sourced durable CDR by 2050 - an amount comparable to the total CDR (durable and non-durable) required for the EU to achieve net-zero. This has policy implications for perceived fairness, since current frameworks impose a disproportionate burden to generate CDR on net-zero-committed companies. We recommend revising net-zero frameworks to account for the implications of double counting in corporate GHG inventories.