IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

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  • 1.
    Fagerström, Anton
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Klugman, Sofia
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Nyberg, Theo
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Karltorp, Kersti
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Hernández Leal, Maria
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Nojpanya, Pavinee
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Johansson, Kristin
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    BeKind - Circularity and climate benefit of a bio- and electro-based chemical industry - effects of transitions in petrochemical value chains2022Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This document reports the finding from the project BeKind: Circularity and climate benefit of a Bio- and Electro-based Chemical Industry - effects of transitions in petrochemical value chains. The aim of the BeKind-project has been to identify challenges for transition to a circular and climate-neutral petrochemical industry, to develop proposals for remedial activities for these obstacles and challenges, and to quantify the benefits such a transition can have for circularity, climate and social sustainability. The focus of the project has been on industrial production of liquid fuels and plastics. 

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  • 2.
    Gustavsson Binder, Tobias
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Hjort, Anders
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Persson, Emelie
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Hasselberg, Pavinee
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Hedayati, Ali
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Safarianbana, Sahar
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Lysenko, Olga
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Chi Johansson, Nina
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Lönnqvist, Tomas
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Nilsson, Linnea
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Hydrogen from biogas as fuel for buses in cold climate - Analysing the feasibility to produce hydrogen from local biogas and use in city buses in Luleå2024Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, we demonstrate that in certain cases, it can be advantageous to produce hydrogen from biogas and to use it in heavy-duty vehicles such as buses. In Luleå, it may be feasible to use hydrogen from biogas in city buses because there is a need for heating where waste heat from the fuel cell can be utilized. However, it is uncertain whether the waste heat is sufficient or if a separate auxiliary heater driven by diesel or HVO is needed. If such a heater is required, the conclusion is that hydrogen from biogas is suitable for other segments of heavy transportation, where battery electrification is not as suitable. Overall, our study shows that hydrogen from biogas may be interesting as a transitional fuel to increase the availability of environmentally friendly hydrogen until electrolyzer capacity is sufficiently expanded.

    At the same time, our mapping of the policy landscape concerning hydrogen and zero-emission buses shows that biohydrogen is disadvantaged in the EU's regulations on renewable hydrogen. This means that member states are restricted from providing support for investments to produce and distribute hydrogen from biogas and other biogenic feedstocks. The reason is that renewable hydrogen, according to EU terminology, is defined in the so-called delegated act on renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO). It is established that renewable hydrogen should be based on non-biological feedstocks (i.e., from electrolysis) and must meet a number of criteria.

    The results are interesting in the context of urban bus traffic rapidly moving towards zero-emission operation. In Sweden and many other countries, battery buses have become a common and obvious feature on city streets. But just like for other segments of heavy-duty vehicles, another technology to achieve zero-emission operation has also received increased attention, namely hydrogen and fuel cell buses. In Sweden, only a few fuel cell buses have been used - and moreover, only on a trial basis - but in several European cities, they have already begun to be used on a significant scale. An advantage of fuel cell operation with hydrogen from biogas is that it allows for the continued utilization of the biogas already produced and purchased for existing city bus traffic.

    System study consisting of two parts

    We arrived at the result by investigating the suitability of both producing hydrogen from biogas at the existing sewage treatment plant in Luleå and the feasibility for LLT to use fuel cell buses in its city bus traffic. The study has considered both costs associated with each part and climate impact from a life cycle perspective for fuel production and bus operation.

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    Hydrogen from biogas as fuel for buses in cold climate
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    Vätgas från biogas i kallt klimat - populärvetenskaplig sammanfattning
  • 3.
    Hansson, Julia
    et al.
    Department of Mechanics and Maritime Sciences, Maritime Environmental Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, Hörselgången 4, 412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden;IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Aschebergsgatan 44, 411 33 Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Klugman, Sofia
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Valhallavägen 81, 114 28 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Lönnqvist, Tomas
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Valhallavägen 81, 114 28 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Elginoz, Nilay
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Valhallavägen 81, 114 28 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Granacher, Julia
    Industrial Process and Energy Systems Engineering (IPESE), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, 1951 Sion, Switzerland.
    Hasselberg, Pavinee
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Aschebergsgatan 44, 411 33 Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Hedman, Fredrik
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Valhallavägen 81, 114 28 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Efraimsson, Nora
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Aschebergsgatan 44, 411 33 Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Johnsson, Sofie
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Aschebergsgatan 44, 411 33 Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Poulikidou, Sofia
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Aschebergsgatan 44, 411 33 Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Safarian, Sahar
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Aschebergsgatan 44, 411 33 Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Tjus, Kåre
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Valhallavägen 81, 114 28 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Biodiesel from Bark and Black Liquor—A Techno-Economic, Social, and Environmental Assessment2023In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 17, no 1, p. 99-99Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A techno-economic assessment and environmental and social sustainability assessments of novel Fischer–Tropsch (FT) biodiesel production from the wet and dry gasification of biomass-based residue streams (bark and black liquor from pulp production) for transport applications are presented. A typical French kraft pulp mill serves as the reference case and large-scale biofuel-production-process integration is explored. Relatively low greenhouse gas emission levels can be obtained for the FT biodiesel (total span: 16–83 g CO2eq/MJ in the assessed EU countries).

    Actual process configuration and low-carbon electricity are critical for overall performance. The site-specific social assessment indicates an overall positive social effect for local community, value chain actors, and society. Important social aspects include (i) job creation potential, (ii) economic development through job creation and new business opportunities, and (iii) health and safety for workers.

    For social risks, the country of implementation is important. Heat and electricity use are the key contributors to social impacts. The estimated production cost for biobased crude oil is about 13 €/GJ, and it is 14 €/GJ (0.47 €/L or 50 €/MWh) for the FT biodiesel. However, there are uncertainties, i.e., due to the low technology readiness level of the gasification technologies, especially wet gasification. However, the studied concept may provide substantial GHG reduction compared to fossil diesel at a relatively low cost.

  • 4.
    Hansson, Julia
    et al.
    Department of Mechanics and Maritime Sciences, Maritime Environmental Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, Hörselgången 4, 412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden;IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Aschebergsgatan 44, 411 33 Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Klugman, Sofia
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Valhallavägen 81, 114 28 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Lönnqvist, Tomas
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Valhallavägen 81, 114 28 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Elginoz, Nilay
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Valhallavägen 81, 114 28 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Granacher, Julia
    Industrial Process and Energy Systems Engineering (IPESE), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, 1951 Sion, Switzerland.
    Hasselberg, Pavinee
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Aschebergsgatan 44, 411 33 Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Hedman, Fredrik
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Valhallavägen 81, 114 28 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Efraimsson, Nora
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Aschebergsgatan 44, 411 33 Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Johnsson, Sofie
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Aschebergsgatan 44, 411 33 Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Poulikidou, Sofia
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Aschebergsgatan 44, 411 33 Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Safarian, Sahar
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Aschebergsgatan 44, 411 33 Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Tjus, Kåre
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Valhallavägen 81, 114 28 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Biodiesel from Bark and Black Liquor—A Techno-Economic, Social, and Environmental Assessment2023In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 17, no 1, p. 99-99Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A techno-economic assessment and environmental and social sustainability assessments ofnovel Fischer–Tropsch (FT) biodiesel production from the wet and dry gasification of biomass-based residue streams (bark and black liquor from pulp production) for transport applications are presented. A typical French kraft pulp mill serves as the reference case and large-scale biofuel-production-process integration is explored. Relatively low greenhouse gas emission levels can be obtained for the FT biodiesel (total span: 16–83 g CO2eq/MJ in the assessed EU countries). Actual process configuration and low-carbon electricity are critical for overall performance.

    The site-specific social assessment indicates an overall positive social effect for local community, value chain actors, and society. Important social aspects include (i) job creation potential, (ii) economic development through job creation and new business opportunities, and (iii) health and safety for workers. For social risks, the country of implementation is important. Heat and electricity use are the key contributors to social impacts.The estimated production cost for biobased crude oil is about 13 €/GJ, and it is 14 €/GJ (0.47 €/L or50 €/MWh) for the FT biodiesel. However, there are uncertainties, i.e., due to the low technologyreadiness level of the gasification technologies, especially wet gasification. However, the studiedconcept may provide substantial GHG reduction compared to fossil diesel at a relatively low cost.

  • 5.
    Hansson, Julia
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Nojpanya, Pavinee
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Ahlström, Johan
    RISE.
    Furusjö, Erik
    RISE.
    Lundgren, Joakim
    LTU.
    Gustavsson Binder, Tobias
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Costs for reducing GHG emissions from road and air transport with biofuels and electrofuels2023Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Renewable fuels for transport are needed to reach future climate targets. However, the potential future role of different biofuels, hydrogen, and electrofuels (produced by electricity, water, and CO2) in different transportation sectors remains uncertain. Increased knowledge about the preconditions for different renewable fuels for road and air transport to contribute to the transformation of the transport sector is needed to ensure the transformation is done in a climate- and cost-effective way. The CO2 abatement cost, i.e., the cost of reducing a certain amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is central from both a societal and business perspective, the latter partly due to the design of the Swedish reduction obligation system.

    The abatement cost of a specific fuel value chain depends on the fuel production cost and the GHG reduction provided by the fuel. This report provides an updated summary of the CO2 abatement costs for various types of biofuels and electrofuels for road transport and aviation, relevant in a Swedish context. Fuel production costs and GHG performance (well to wheel) for the selected renewable fuel pathways are mapped based on published data. The estimated CO2 abatement cost ranges from -0.37 to 4.03 SEK/kg CO2-equivalent. Methane from anaerobic digestion of sewage sludge and ethanol from fermentation of sugarcane and maize end up with negative CO2 abatement cost given the assumptions made, meaning it is more economically beneficial to use than its fossil counterpart.

    Electrofuels pathways (particularly diesel and aviation fuels) have, on the other hand, relatively high CO2 abatement costs. Also, so-called bio-electrofuels produced from biogenic excess CO2 from biofuel production and electricity linked to biofuel production generally have higher CO2 abatement costs than the corresponding forest biomass-based biofuel pathway. For forest biomass-based biofuels, bio-electrofuels and electrofuels, methanol, and methane pathways in general have somewhat lower CO2 abatement costs than hydrocarbon-based fuels (gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel).Since most of the assessed renewable fuel pathways achieve substantial GHG emission reduction compared to fossil fuels, the fuel production cost is, in general, more important than the GHG performance to achieve a low CO2 abatement cost. The production cost for fossil fuels also influences the CO2 abatement cost to a large extent. More estimates of cost and GHG performance for gasification of waste-based pathways are needed and for certain pathways under development (e.g., including hydropyrolysis).

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  • 6.
    Junestedt, Christian
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Bolinius, Dämien Johann
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Emilsson, Erik
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Lassesson, Henric
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Nojpanya, Pavinee
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Wanemark, Joel
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Lindblom, Erik
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Sörme, Louise
    SCB.
    Förslag på utformning av ett livscykelbaserat system för kartläggning av flöden av omställningskritiska råmaterial  i den svenska teknosfären2023Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    On March 24, 2021, the government commissioned the Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU) to work with the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency to increase opportunities for the sustainable extraction of minerals and metals from secondary raw materials (Näringsdepartementet, 2021). The assignment contains several tasks, one of which is about providing an overview of the flows of critical minerals and metals and proposing a system for how life cycle analysis and traceability can be designed to contribute to a circular economy. This report handles part of the task and describes the results of the work on proposing the requested system.

    Within the framework of this study, it was necessary to interpret and partially redefine some of the requested parts of the system. Emphasis was placed on the total quantities, distribution and use of raw materials, rather than through which value chains a certain partial flow of raw materials has flowed or what sustainability footprint that raw material flow has created. To clarify this demarcation, the system proposed in this study is referred to as a mapping system instead of a traceability system. A system for tracking or mapping critical raw materials with the aim of contributing to a circular economy should not begin by focusing on the collection of life-cycle data or development of new LCA studies, but instead on where different materials are located, in what quantities they occur and where in the life cycle (technosphere) they are located and when these can (if possible) become available for reuse or recycling. Therefore, in the construction phase of the proposed mapping system, it is a life cycle perspective that is needed rather than a system for life cycle analysis.

    The development and proposal of the mapping system included a description of existing data sources, how a calculation system could be designed and how data sources and calculations could be combined into a system that also considers existing initiatives on digital product passports, which is a part of the new Ecodesign Regulation proposed for implementation in the EU in the future.SMED recommends that a future life cycle-based mapping system for critical raw materials in the Swedish technosphere be developed with a so-called bottom-up approach. This means a more complex system that places greater demands on data collection than with a top-down approach. At the same time, it lays the foundation for a system that can endure over time and take full advantage of the dramatic increase in available product data that the digital product passports are likely to provide. The design and content of the product passports will be regulated in the legislative act for each product group. Limited access to product data has so far been the main argument for a top-down approach. The ongoing and socially pervasive transformation of the Swedish and European energy systems will mean a growing dependence on materials. SMED therefore believes that the mapping system will most likely be relevant for a long time to come, which justifies well a high initial level of ambition to develop a system that grows from the beginning. The system will necessarily be very data-intensive but is largely based on data collected centrally.

    As shown in several sections of this report, the mapping system was designed to be consistent with the initiatives that SMED deems to be the most important. Particular attention was paid to the Batteries Regulation and the Ecodesign Regulation's product passports at the EU level and the Swedish Waste Register at the national level.A success factor for the proposed mapping system will be to continuously monitor developments in the area both to ensure that Sweden's national system becomes consistent with the emerging systems at EU level, and to identify and exploit the opportunities for synergies between different systems and different actors that the mapping system will bring. Not least, it has the potential to alleviate the response burden on industry, as parts of the data that the mapping system needs are simultaneously requested and, in many cases, requested also for other purposes.

    All in all, SMED concludes that there is much to be said for moving forward with the development of a mapping system as recommended further in the report. If the digital product passports are implemented in the near future and can provide the data currently proposed, the development costs and reporting burdens would be significantly reduced. On the other hand, if data on the flows of critical raw materials will not be provided by the product passports for one reason or another, the value of a Swedish mapping system would increase even further, since there wouldn’t be (as far as can be predicted today) any as other system that could draw the necessary map

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  • 7.
    Nyberg, Theo
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Klugman, Sofia
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Särnbratt, Mirjam
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Nojpanya, Pavinee
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Hjort, Anders
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Persson, Emelie
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Fagerström, Anton
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Lönnqvist, Tobias
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Bioenergianläggning Otterbäcken2022Report (Refereed)
    Abstract [sv]

    Transportsektorns efterfrågan på biodrivmedel ökar när klimatomställningen ska omsättas i praktik. Sverige har goda förutsättningar att producera dessa drivmedel och det finns flertalet orter runt om i landet där förutsättningarna för biodrivmedelsproduktion är goda. Gullspångs kommun har under de senaste tio åren fört en dialog med Västra Götalandsregionen om möjligheten att etablera en bioenergikombinatanläggning i Otterbäcken för att nyttja de goda förutsättningar som finns med tillgång på råvara samt goda logistiska förutsättningar med bland annat djuphamnen. I detta projekt har en utredning gjorts för att ta fram kommersiellt relevanta investeringskoncept för en bioenergikombinatanläggning i Otterbäcken, och resultaten pekar på intressanta förutsättningar för en anläggning för produktion av flytande biometan (Liquified biogas, LBG).

    Projektet har utgått från en äldre förstudie där förutsättningarna för en bioenergikombinat-anläggning som producerar torrefierad biomassa undersöktes. Kunskaperna från denna tidigare studie har kompletterats med nya kartläggningar av relevanta tekniker och lokala råvaror som kan ingå i ett investeringskoncept för en anläggning som producerar biodrivmedel som kan användas i befintliga tunga lastbilar. Kartläggningen omfattade sju olika tekniker som utifrån de uppdaterade kartläggningarna kondenserades ned till två investeringskoncept för djupare undersökning av investeringskoncept. Det ena konceptet var en anläggning för produktion av pyrolysolja från skogsrester och det andra konceptet var en anläggning för produktion av LBG, men på grund av en högre teknologisk mognadsgrad samt större intresse från referensgruppen för det senare konceptet (LBG) så fick detta ett större fokus i projektet.

    De två fördjupade investeringskoncepten inkluderade teknikbeskrivning, skiss på affärsmodell med hjälp av referensgruppen, ekonomisk bedömning av lönsamheten i investeringen samt en beräkning av klimatpåverkan för drivmedlet (endast för LBG-konceptet).

    Resultaten visar att det ser ut att finnas både råvaror för, teknik till och förutsättningar för en god ekonomi i en anläggning för produktion av LBG. Råvarusituationen behöver bekräftas genom kontakter med råvaruleverantörer, tekniken kan behöva viss utvärdering för att hitta etablerade teknikleverantörer med pålitlig teknik och de ekonomiska förutsättningarna är beroende av investerings- och produktionsstöd för att kunna vara kommersiellt intressanta. Trots dessa osäkerheter är den samlade bedömningen att det kan vara aktuellt för en aktör eller grupp av aktörer med intresse av att äga och driva en biogasanläggning att ta vid där projektet slutar för att på sikt gå vidare med en investering i en anläggning.

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  • 8.
    Sandkvist, Filip
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Nojpanya, Pavinee
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Lewrén, Adam
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Klimatfärdplan för Golvbranschen2023Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    I detta projekt har en klimatberäkningsmetod tagits fram med syftet att kunna beräkna klimatpåverkan för en bransch bestående av både produkter och tjänster. Metoden har testats för Golvbranschens Riksorganisation (GBR) som ett led i branschens arbete mot att formulera en klimatfärdplan.

    Byggbranschen står för ca 20% av samhällets klimatpåverkan varav cirka hälften kommer från materialanvändning. År 2018 tog byggsektorn fram en färdplan för att nå en klimatneutral värdekedja i byggsektorn år 2045. Som en del av färdplanen ska byggbranschens aktörer senast år 2022 ha kartlagt sina utsläpp och satt egna klimatmål. Golvbranschens Riksorganisation (GBR) initierade ett samverkansprojekt tillsammans med IVL för att skapa en gemensam överblick för hur klimatpåverkan från hela golvbranschen kan beräknas, en bransch bestående av både produkter och tjänster.

    Genom detta projekt har en klimatberäkningsmetod inspirerat av GHG-protokollet tagits fram för att vara tillämpbar på en bransch med både produkter och tjänster. Metoden har testats med GBR som fallstudie, och en klimatberäkning av branschen har gjorts för basår 2021.

    Baserat på klimatberäkningen står avfallshanteringen av ytskikt (förbränning) för GBR:s största klimatpåverkan, följt av materialtillverkning och tredjepartsleveranser.

    I samarbete med GBR har relevanta klimatåtgärder identifierats, och dessa åtgärder har graderats efter potential till sänkta klimatutsläpp för GBR som helhet. Då klimatpåverkan från produktskedet och förbränning är väldigt stora i förhållande till GBR:s totala klimatpåverkan är det relevant med åtgärder riktade mot dessa områden, såsom klimatförbättrade material och att ytskikten får utnyttja en större del av sin tekniska livslängd. Det är också relevant med åtgärder riktade mot sänkt klimatpåverkan från transporter, såsom användning av alternativa drivmedel.

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  • 9. Trinh, Jenny
    et al.
    Nojpanya, Pavinee
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Hernández Leal, Maria
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Fagerström, Anton
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Särnbratt, Mirjam
    IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.
    Fossilfri Flygräddning 20452022Report (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    To meet the Swedish climate target of net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2045, it has become more and more urgent for the aviation sector to reduce its climate footprint. However, this represents a challenge for the non-commercial part of the aviation sector such as the air borne search-and-rescue services, as their activities cannot be compromised by the climate target. Increased use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) is a way to achieve the climate target, while still not compromising the mission for this part of aviation. 

    However, due to a high demand on SAF, their availability and possibility to supply the aviation sector in Sweden as well as their environmental impact in relation to the climate target is still somewhat uncertain.

    This report aims to increase the understanding in these issues by first reviewing the domestic feedstock availability and calculating the SAF production potential within Sweden. Thereafter, an assessment was done on how the aviation fuel market could vary in Sweden by 2045 due to the strength of the GHG reduction mandate and the dependence or independence of fuel from outside Sweden.

    This was done through 4 different future scenarios based on a mathematical model. Finally, the environmental impact of selected SAFs was evaluated by life cycle assessment (LCA) following the method described in the recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (REDII). The assessment was done based on the currently available data. Thus, the future change in the technology and other circumstances were not taken into account. 

    The current and future (2045) Swedish production potential of jet fuel was investigated via 4 different pathways, i.e., Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) from biogenic waste oils, Gasification-based Fischer-Tropsch (G-FT) from forest residues, Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL) from forest residues and Power-to-Liquid (PtL) from biogenic captured CO2 and H2 from electrolysis via Fischer-Tropsh (FT).

    The pathways, of the assessed ones, having the highest current and future potential considering feedstock supply are G-FT and HTL. The results were however considerably affected by the assumptions made on process yield. The production potential of PtL was not as high as the other pathways due to low availability of feedstock. Finally, HEFA was the pathway with the lowest potential due to the low availability of domestic raw material.

    Based on the scenario analysis, the future of fossil free jet fuel is highly dependent of the price of fuel as well as the maximum allowed blending ratio of fossil free jet fuel. In this particular scenario analysis, domestic ATJ and HEFA was favored by the model thanks to their low production costs and avoided import costs, since the fuel is produced in Sweden. However, although the production plants used in the model will be constructed within Swedish borders, it is unlikely that domestic HEFA feedstock would be sufficient to supply them and there would likely be an import of waste oils to meet the demand of the plants. 

    The environmental assessment was done on UCO-based HEFA and PtL. HEFA was assessed as it is the fuel that the Search and Rescue fleet used during the pilot phase of this project. PtL was assessed for the sake of comparison and also because most data for PtL production was already available. Both HEFA and PtL show the potential of reducing the fossil GHG emissions up to 70 and 77%, respectively. However, with the technical and legislative limitations, it is not yet possible to use pure SAF in the aviation sector. This leads to the potential emission reduction of the greenhouse gases being lower than 42%. SAF production and transportation of feedstock are one of the main contributors to the emissions.

    In general, HEFA production has higher climate impact than the production of PtL. In addition, UCO which is the feedstock for HEFA was assumed to be collected in China. This gives a significantly higher impact compared to the PtL-process where all activities were assumed to take place in Sweden. This implies that the climate impact of HEFA can be reduced if the UCO can be collected domestically. However, as the assessment shows, the climate target will be difficult to achieve when using HEFA or PtL.

    The challenge lies on the upstream processes of these two SAF which currently are still fossil-based. For HEFA, it is common that H2 is produced from natural gas while for PtL, the production of raw materials used in electrolysis and carbon capture process such as chemicals and catalysts contribute to fossil emissions.  

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