IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

EU recently decided to include shipping, meaning all intra-European shipping and50% of extra-European voyages, in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)beginning in 2024. This article provides an early assessment of the impacts of theEU ETS on the shipping sector’s potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissionsfor different types of ships. It further examines selected mitigation measures andthe impact on modals split and costs. The study employs a mixed-methodsapproach  combining  quantitative  estimates  (based  on  data  from  the  EUmonitoring,  reporting  and  verification  system)  with  qualitative  data  andinformation from interviews with key actors and from previous literature.

This approach aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of theEU ETS. The inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS is expected to introduce significantincentives to reduce emissions. We estimate that switching to bio-methanol at anemissions allowance price of€90–100/tCO2will be cost-effective for a minor shareof shipping segments (representing about 0.5-5% of all ships), whereas at a priceabove€150/tCO2it could be cost-effective for a considerable share (potentially75%) of ships. In the short term, the costs incurred by the EU ETS will be passed onto transport customers as a surcharge. The increased cost may, unless properlyaddressed, drive carbon leakage. Meanwhile, a modal shift away from shippingmay occur in the roll-on, roll-off(RoRo) and roll-on passenger (RoPax) segmentsdue to direct competition with road and rail transport and the relative ease ofshifting to other modes of transport.

The report contains two parts. Part 1 summarizes the most significantdevelopments in the use of economic instruments in the environmental policies inthe Nordic countries. It provides an overview of new instruments or major changesto existing instruments from 2018 to 2021 a detailed country-by-countrydescription of these developments and a cross-country comparison andassessment. Part 1 also provides “raw data” for further analysis by policymakersand other stakeholders, and presents other findings, including policy priorities andgood practices. Part 2 provides an overview overview of policies and instrumentsthe Nordic countries have used to promote clean technologies.

National emission reduction targets under the Paris Agreement have a territorial focus, incentivizing mitigation actions domestically. Here we examine the theoretical basis for adopting complementary consumption-based net-zero emission targets and assess the consequences of adopting such proposed targets for Sweden. We apply scenario analyses based on a prospective lifecycle assessment framework. The framework is a hybrid of bottom-up simulations for passenger travel, construction and housing, and food, and top-down analyses for remaining consumption. In this work, we show how consumption-based climate targets may accentuate the need for new demand-side climate policies that contribute to reducing emissions along supply chains of products and services.

Our scenario analysis suggests that combining advanced mitigation technologies with behavioral changes could reduce emissions from 9.8 tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per capita in 2019 to between 2.7 and 4.8 tons by 2045 for Swedish residents, depending on global decarbonization pathways. Combining advanced mitigation technologies with behavioural changes could achieve the lowest carbon emissions per capita in Sweden, suggest scenario analyses combining bottom-up simulations for passenger travel, construction and housing, and food, and top-down analyses for remaining consumption.

Meeting the goals set out in the Paris Agreement will require rapid and deep reductions of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) across all sectors of the global economy. Like all major societal transformations, this climate transition will impact both social and technical aspects of society and, depending on how it evolves, will reallocate social and economic benefits and costs differently.

Recognising the importance of decarbonising key industry sectors with large GHG emissions and an significant impact on society, this study explores the opportunities and tensions involved in a transition of the petrochemical industry.

We do so by analysing how access to natural resources, the petrochemical industry's role in the economy and the socio-political landscape in key petrochemical producing countries impacts prerequisites for change.

The assessment shows that devising adequate policy responses, building legitimacy for change and potentially building bottom-up pressure for a timely climate transition are likely to look very different in the 10 countries with the greatest active petrochemical capacity in the world: China, the United States, India, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Russia, Iran, Germany and Taiwan.

The indicators used to explore the prerequisites for change all point to areas where actions and policies must advance for a transition to be realised.

This includes efforts to cap fossil feedstock supply and production capacity, efforts to limit and ultimately reduce demand for plastics and fertilisers, and measures to formulate transition strategies and policies that capture and provide agency for communities and groups that are currently on the receiving end of negative health and environmental impacts from the petrochemical industry and that will also, in many cases, be most closely affected by a transition.

In the context of achieving a climate-neutral and sustainable electricity system, energy systems modelling is often used as a tool to assist decision making. However, a challenge posed within the field is how to represent sustainability in a way that presents actionable, clear and holistic results. There is thus a need to give a more comprehensive and nuanced view of sustainability aspects of energy system modelling.

To provide a basis of understanding of how sustainability could be conceptualized and assessed in energy systems modelling, six well known (from a Swedish point-of-view) sustainability frameworks were analyzed and presented in this report: the concept of Environmental Carrying Capacity, the Planetary Boundaries, the Doughnut Economics framework, the Sustainable Development Goals, the Swedish Environmental Quality Objectives and the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development. The frameworks were structured according to their sustainability concept and according to what decision-making they would be able to provide input to. The results of the report serve as input to the discourse concerning how the energy system could be transformed to 100 % renewable electricity production along a truly sustainable way.

The expanding petrochemical industry depends on fossil fuels both as feedstock and a source of energy and is at the heart of the intertwined global crises relating to plastics, climate, and toxic emissions. Addressing these crises requires uprooting the deep-seated lock-ins that sustain petrochemical plastics. This perspective identifies lock-ins that stand in the way of ambitious emission reductions and ending plastic pollution. We emphasize that addressing the growing plastic production and consumption requires confronting the political economy of petrochemicals.

We put forward key elements needed to address the dual challenges of moving away from the unsustainable production of plastics and drastically reducing emissions from the petrochemical sector and argue for attention to the links between fossil fuels and plastics, which in turn involves challenging entrenched power structures and vested interests linked to the fossil-based plastics economy. A critical step would be ensuring attention to the production of petrochemicals and related upstream issues in the upcoming global plastics treaty.